In which case, it is much simpler. To work out where an object will fall, you have to model the path of various objects of all shapes, masses and densities wit

In which case, it is much simpler. To work out where an object will fall, you have to model the path of various objects of all shapes, masses and densities with wind of all strengths and directions (including shifting and gusting winds), and considering the original orientation of the object, and any spin placed on it at point of release (in three axes). Just working out the angles at which light from a distant ball of fire will hit a surface should be a piece of cake. You could probably do it pretty easily for every point (assuming a certain size of point) at that distance at which it isn't completely hidden, just in case the planet suddenly changes its orientation.