4 ms·

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too

by JonoW 13y ago

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

deerpig 13y ago
I've never seen one in SE or East Asia, not one, in Hong Kong, Singapore, KL, Bangkok or even little Phnom Penh, and you would think MS would see WP's best chance was to attract buyers who hadn't bought a smart phone before. What are they buying? Samsung mostly (and not just Galaxy, they make a lot of android phones at a cheap pricepoint), with 20-25% buying iPhones.
yulaow 13y ago
well that's because US has the market dimension of the full EU and more. This is why also if in EU wp is aroundd 10%, worlwide it is still on 3%. Us-Africa(that is still for more than 60% on dumbphones)-Cina-Japan do not like it for various reasons
bhauer 13y ago
Not only that, but with today's homogeneity in hardware, the phone market takes some time to shift. I held onto my Android phone for my two year contract and replaced it with a Lumia 920. My wife's Nexus contract is expiring in a few months and she is considering a Lumia as well. That transaction will occur about a year after my last upgrade. These things don't happen instantly now that so many devices are alike. By comparison, when we adopted the first iPhone, it was a dramatic departure from previous cell phones and we had to have it immediately. Since then, we've just waited for our contract terms to expire. Though I would interrupt my contract immediately if someone would deliver on personal application omnipresence, making a cell phone that is just a small touch-enabled view on my network and my applications.
Zigurd 13y ago
I would dispute that WP is "doing well" anywhere except a handful of countries where Nokia previously dominated distribution. Microsoft now owns all of Nokia's handset business, which is still 90%+ non-WP. As the S30, S40, and Asha base under WP evaporates, WP will have nothing to piggyback on in these markets.
tanzam75 13y ago
> I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated. Trouble is, the US is a large and profitable smartphone market. And it's locked up by the on-contract subsidy model. There is a strong relationship between iPhone market share and subsidy amount. Countries with no subsidies have very few iPhones. Countries with some subsidies have some iPhones. The United States has high subsidies and thus a lot of iPhones. http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/05/proof-of-iphones-dependence-on-carrier.html http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/05/proof-of-iphones-depend... To some extent, Apple has a protected home market. Regardless of how its market share declines overseas, Apple will still rake in enormous profits through the cellphone subsidy in the US. This is something that Nokia/Windows Phone doesn't have, with its puny 3.5% US market share. They're doing OK in the markets where people look at the price of the phone, and not doing well in the one market where people are happy to have their pockets picked. That's not a recipe for making large profits in the phone business. And that's why the US market matters. Profits are disproportionately large compared to revenues.
- JonoW 13y ago
  Yup it's totally possible that WP will never crack the US, but as the non-US smartphone market is growing rapidly, I don't think success in the US is the be all and end all.

by JonoW 13y ago

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

deerpig 13y ago

I've never seen one in SE or East Asia, not one, in Hong Kong, Singapore, KL, Bangkok or even little Phnom Penh, and you would think MS would see WP's best chance was to attract buyers who hadn't bought a smart phone before. What are they buying? Samsung mostly (and not just Galaxy, they make a lot of android phones at a cheap pricepoint), with 20-25% buying iPhones.

yulaow 13y ago

well that's because US has the market dimension of the full EU and more. This is why also if in EU wp is aroundd 10%, worlwide it is still on 3%. Us-Africa(that is still for more than 60% on dumbphones)-Cina-Japan do not like it for various reasons

bhauer 13y ago

Not only that, but with today's homogeneity in hardware, the phone market takes some time to shift. I held onto my Android phone for my two year contract and replaced it with a Lumia 920. My wife's Nexus contract is expiring in a few months and she is considering a Lumia as well. That transaction will occur about a year after my last upgrade. These things don't happen instantly now that so many devices are alike. By comparison, when we adopted the first iPhone, it was a dramatic departure from previous cell phones and we had to have it immediately. Since then, we've just waited for our contract terms to expire. Though I would interrupt my contract immediately if someone would deliver on personal application omnipresence, making a cell phone that is just a small touch-enabled view on my network and my applications.

Zigurd 13y ago

I would dispute that WP is "doing well" anywhere except a handful of countries where Nokia previously dominated distribution. Microsoft now owns all of Nokia's handset business, which is still 90%+ non-WP. As the S30, S40, and Asha base under WP evaporates, WP will have nothing to piggyback on in these markets.

tanzam75 13y ago

> I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated. Trouble is, the US is a large and profitable smartphone market. And it's locked up by the on-contract subsidy model. There is a strong relationship between iPhone market share and subsidy amount. Countries with no subsidies have very few iPhones. Countries with some subsidies have some iPhones. The United States has high subsidies and thus a lot of iPhones. http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/05/proof-of-iphones-dependence-on-carrier.html http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2012/05/proof-of-iphones-depend... To some extent, Apple has a protected home market. Regardless of how its market share declines overseas, Apple will still rake in enormous profits through the cellphone subsidy in the US. This is something that Nokia/Windows Phone doesn't have, with its puny 3.5% US market share. They're doing OK in the markets where people look at the price of the phone, and not doing well in the one market where people are happy to have their pockets picked. That's not a recipe for making large profits in the phone business. And that's why the US market matters. Profits are disproportionately large compared to revenues.

JonoW 13y ago
Yup it's totally possible that WP will never crack the US, but as the non-US smartphone market is growing rapidly, I don't think success in the US is the be all and end all.