4 ms·

Here's my take. Nokia's downfall has literally been the biggest business failure in the history of the planet - see communities-dominate.blogs.com for backstory

Here's my take. Nokia's downfall has literally been the biggest business failure in the history of the planet - see communities-dominate.blogs.com for backstory. (As I mentioned in a previous post; I'm largely summarizing things Tomi proves with hard data.) My interpretation of this is that the increasingly untenable position of Stephen Elop began to incriminate the whole board, as any toppling of Elop would invite all sorts of questions as to why he wasn't booted yonks ago. The only way that Microsoft had of avoiding another black eye for Windows was to buy Nokia to appease investors (seriously, how many black eyes can one platform get? Is it a potato?) Consider: Had the headline read, "Microsoft deal destroys World's Leading Manufacturer of Mobile" (which incidentally is the actual, ink-on-paper market position held by Nokia circa Elop's hire, shows Tomi) and it could have destabilized the larger Windows ecosystem too. If this claim seems histrionic, recall that the ENTIRE PC INDUSTRY is like a tenth the size of mobile. Yes, I love my PC too, but most consumers seem much happier with other devices for a wide range of use cases. Therefore, getting Windows on those devices mattered. Windows Phone mattered. Windows RT mattered. Intel is on its back leg, and ARM is about to make its final assault on the server closet, where Windows Server is melting away faster than ice on a VAX. And yet I don't think people realize exactly how vulnerable Microsoft is. The one good thing Ballmer did is notice. Way too late, though. It seems strange to me that there are others who are even less clueful than Ballmer. If your business depends in ANY WAY on Microsoft -- and it probably does -- plan accordingly.

pedalpete 13y ago
We may see the strength in Microsoft server future come from azure, and not from software. Though it is more difficult to get people to try azure over other platforms, I have heard amazing things about it. Personally, I've just always stayed away from Microsoft dev environments, even though I prefer my pc and windows phone to my apple/android variants.
nemothekid 13y ago
Is there a specific post you wanted to highlight on communities-dominate.blogs.com?
- b1daly 13y ago
  You can start here to get a sense of the depth of this man's obsession to highlight how far Nokia has fallen. I find him to be a reasonably entertaining writer, he's crafted a dramatic narrative around the foibles of Nokia. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/08/ballmer-aftermath-part-3-ballmer-replacement-and-specifically-elop-spoiler-alert-elop-wont-become-ms.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/08/ballmer...
throwawaykf02 13y ago
I know a couple of savvy guys working for Intel's competitors moaning about how Intel is going to demolish them. Haswell and its descendants, it seems, are the real deal, and in the long term, they hold out little hope for ARM in the mobile space, let alone the server space. I dunno about Microsoft, but I wouldn't be betting against Intel. (Just to be clear, I have no stock in or position on any of the companies mentioned on this entire thread.)
- gnaffle 13y ago
  In the server space I agree. However, in the mobile space, ARM has a huge advantage of licensing their cores to dozens of SoC manufacturers that provide very appealing, integrated, low cost chips for mobile vendors to build products on. It's like the Android of the mobile processor market. If Intel ever start leasing out their manufacturing process to SoC vendors to allow them to build whatever chips they want, then I'll be more optimistic about Intel on mobile.
- twoodfin 13y ago
  It'll be fascinating to see how this plays out. What's Tim Cook's magic number for price/performance in the iPad to justify an architecture swap, and can Intel hit it? I would have thought no a few months ago, but ULV Haswell looks like it's the precursor to something very, very nice. It's hard to underestimate just how easy a platform swap would be for Apple (and Google already supports both in shipping products).
lsc 13y ago
>recall that the ENTIRE PC INDUSTRY is like a tenth the size of mobile. Yes, I love my PC too, but most consumers seem much happier with other devices for a wide range of use cases Meh, a lot of this is that mobile devices are advancing really fast. I'm perfectly happy with a 5 year old desktop, but I want a new phone much more often. Once mobile devices are "good enough" you will see people buy new devices less often. >ARM is about to make its final assault on the server closet, I've heard a whole lot of talk about this (and I've talked about this myself; I think I am in one of the industries that could actually sell the things. I have a bunch of customers who would pay a small premium for a physical server to themselves) - but I haven't seen anything realistic. As far as I can tell, you're better of with "Four strong oxen" as it were, rather than "one thousand twenty four chickens"
iamshs 13y ago
Quoting TOmi Ahonen's blog here should be blasphemy , to be frank. He presents a very contorted narrative, with unjustified venom. As for as his summarizing things with hard data, take a look here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6319063 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6319063 He said Gates vetoed Ballmer's decision to purchase Nokia, and hence gave him 6 months to chart his way out. He squarely blamed Nokia-MS partnership for Ballmer's retiring. Now look at today.

pedalpete 13y ago

We may see the strength in Microsoft server future come from azure, and not from software. Though it is more difficult to get people to try azure over other platforms, I have heard amazing things about it. Personally, I've just always stayed away from Microsoft dev environments, even though I prefer my pc and windows phone to my apple/android variants.

nemothekid 13y ago

Is there a specific post you wanted to highlight on communities-dominate.blogs.com?

b1daly 13y ago
You can start here to get a sense of the depth of this man's obsession to highlight how far Nokia has fallen. I find him to be a reasonably entertaining writer, he's crafted a dramatic narrative around the foibles of Nokia. http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/08/ballmer-aftermath-part-3-ballmer-replacement-and-specifically-elop-spoiler-alert-elop-wont-become-ms.html http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/08/ballmer...

throwawaykf02 13y ago

I know a couple of savvy guys working for Intel's competitors moaning about how Intel is going to demolish them. Haswell and its descendants, it seems, are the real deal, and in the long term, they hold out little hope for ARM in the mobile space, let alone the server space. I dunno about Microsoft, but I wouldn't be betting against Intel. (Just to be clear, I have no stock in or position on any of the companies mentioned on this entire thread.)

gnaffle 13y ago
In the server space I agree. However, in the mobile space, ARM has a huge advantage of licensing their cores to dozens of SoC manufacturers that provide very appealing, integrated, low cost chips for mobile vendors to build products on. It's like the Android of the mobile processor market. If Intel ever start leasing out their manufacturing process to SoC vendors to allow them to build whatever chips they want, then I'll be more optimistic about Intel on mobile.
twoodfin 13y ago
It'll be fascinating to see how this plays out. What's Tim Cook's magic number for price/performance in the iPad to justify an architecture swap, and can Intel hit it? I would have thought no a few months ago, but ULV Haswell looks like it's the precursor to something very, very nice. It's hard to underestimate just how easy a platform swap would be for Apple (and Google already supports both in shipping products).

lsc 13y ago

>recall that the ENTIRE PC INDUSTRY is like a tenth the size of mobile. Yes, I love my PC too, but most consumers seem much happier with other devices for a wide range of use cases Meh, a lot of this is that mobile devices are advancing really fast. I'm perfectly happy with a 5 year old desktop, but I want a new phone much more often. Once mobile devices are "good enough" you will see people buy new devices less often. >ARM is about to make its final assault on the server closet, I've heard a whole lot of talk about this (and I've talked about this myself; I think I am in one of the industries that could actually sell the things. I have a bunch of customers who would pay a small premium for a physical server to themselves) - but I haven't seen anything realistic. As far as I can tell, you're better of with "Four strong oxen" as it were, rather than "one thousand twenty four chickens"

iamshs 13y ago

Quoting TOmi Ahonen's blog here should be blasphemy , to be frank. He presents a very contorted narrative, with unjustified venom. As for as his summarizing things with hard data, take a look here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6319063 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6319063 He said Gates vetoed Ballmer's decision to purchase Nokia, and hence gave him 6 months to chart his way out. He squarely blamed Nokia-MS partnership for Ballmer's retiring. Now look at today.