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Ford's point is a good one, but it's a bit dishonest. A radiologist's job is processing information - it's easy to move overseas or stick into an algorithm. A h

by imsky 13y ago

Ford's point is a good one, but it's a bit dishonest. A radiologist's job is processing information - it's easy to move overseas or stick into an algorithm. A housekeeper's job is managing a house and the people living in it - a hotelier is similarly difficult to automate. Regarding your PPS - it's not so much that demand for software is unlimited, it's that software can be used for far more purposes than food or natural resources. A single algorithm can be used in multiple industries, and given that the world doesn't develop evenly as a whole, there will be software opportunities in the real world (machinery), in processing the real world (commerce), in the virtual world (media), and in processing the virtual world (analytics), and these opportunities will increasingly require more and more knowledge and creativity.

tedsanders 13y ago
What's dishonest? I don't think I follow. Do you mean that housekeeper and radiologist were cherrypicked and that in reality laborers are at higher risk of automation than knowledge workers?
- imsky 13y ago
  No, this part: "A common misconception about automation is the idea that it will primarily impact >low paying< jobs that require few skills or training. To illustrate that this is not necessarily the case, consider two very different occupations: a radiologist and a housekeeper." A hotelier's job, the well-compensated version of a housekeeper's job, is also difficult to automate. On the flip side, a good deal of information processing jobs, no matter how well compensated, can be automated. I think the point was made rather bluntly, without elaboration.
  - nrivadeneira 13y ago
    The point was made just fine. He said that there is not one definitive compensation class that will be primarily affected. It doesn't seem like you've refuted that.
  - imsky 13y ago
    @nrivadeneira: Yes, the point Ford made works, but it works because of the _nature of the jobs_, not because of any inherent property of theirs that influences their compensation (implied by Ford to be the knowledge/labor distinction). Clearly you and I can think of high-income location-bound jobs (bodyguard) and of low-income information-processing jobs (library clerk).
  - tedsanders 13y ago
    Thanks for clarifying!
WalterSear 13y ago
There might not be ways to automate everything, but there will certainly be changes to how we do things that facilitate the replacement and downsizing of some otherwise 'creative' jobs. A housekeeper can be replaced by modifying the nature of the house - a fridge that keeps itself stocked and roombas that actually do a proper job, for example. My point is that the qualitative difference between a creative and non-creative job is mitigated to some extent by all the 'non-creative' stuff we have to do every day. So even knowledge workers are not immune to 'dumb' automation. An example of this would be remote work and off-shoring, which has opened up software development projects to global competition. However, the argument still stands - knowledge workers aren't unionized manual labour and if robots are going to replace everything, someone has to program the robots. And, there's easily going to be more 'robots' tomorrow than today for some time to come. So what could end the 'world automation' gravy train we are on right now? IMHO, the average knowledge worker has a much clearer and more present danger that the chance they might be making themselves redundant - and one that would affect pretty much everyone, not just knowledge workers. They should more concerned about that other thing that destroys demand: financial destruction. The redundancy threat that knowledge workers should be concerned about are the sins of our owners coming home to roost; another depression.
- imsky 13y ago
  Knowledge workers are definitely not immune to automation, I've acknowledged that in the post. They do set the bar quite high for software and intelligent agents, however. Regarding your last point, I think a knowledge worker smart enough to automate themselves out of a job will be smart enough to capitalize on that discovery. Moreover, there will always be tasks people will prefer done manually, knowledge-based or otherwise.
  - wildgift 13y ago
    What if the problems to solve are becoming easier to solve, because we're more plugged-in into an infrastructure of information? That eliminates work. Standards are a good example. We love them, but, in a way, they eliminate the creation of middleware jobs that transform the data from one format to another.
sseveran 13y ago
Actually the radiologists job has proved difficult to either move overseas (requires US credentials) or automate (CAD still generates a ton of false positives). A radiologist still makes a considerable salary and is the R in the ROAD to success. Plus advances in continuous imaging and interventional procedures make it unlikely that they will see any significant decline.
- imsky 13y ago
  Exactly right, it seems many people assume that automation or offshoring will be a smooth and seamless process with no trade-offs. That's not the case at all, offshoring and automation present their own kind of problems.

by imsky 13y ago

tedsanders 13y ago

What's dishonest? I don't think I follow. Do you mean that housekeeper and radiologist were cherrypicked and that in reality laborers are at higher risk of automation than knowledge workers?

imsky 13y ago
No, this part: "A common misconception about automation is the idea that it will primarily impact >low paying< jobs that require few skills or training. To illustrate that this is not necessarily the case, consider two very different occupations: a radiologist and a housekeeper." A hotelier's job, the well-compensated version of a housekeeper's job, is also difficult to automate. On the flip side, a good deal of information processing jobs, no matter how well compensated, can be automated. I think the point was made rather bluntly, without elaboration.
- nrivadeneira 13y ago
  The point was made just fine. He said that there is not one definitive compensation class that will be primarily affected. It doesn't seem like you've refuted that.
- imsky 13y ago
  @nrivadeneira: Yes, the point Ford made works, but it works because of the _nature of the jobs_, not because of any inherent property of theirs that influences their compensation (implied by Ford to be the knowledge/labor distinction). Clearly you and I can think of high-income location-bound jobs (bodyguard) and of low-income information-processing jobs (library clerk).
- tedsanders 13y ago
  Thanks for clarifying!

WalterSear 13y ago

There might not be ways to automate everything, but there will certainly be changes to how we do things that facilitate the replacement and downsizing of some otherwise 'creative' jobs. A housekeeper can be replaced by modifying the nature of the house - a fridge that keeps itself stocked and roombas that actually do a proper job, for example. My point is that the qualitative difference between a creative and non-creative job is mitigated to some extent by all the 'non-creative' stuff we have to do every day. So even knowledge workers are not immune to 'dumb' automation. An example of this would be remote work and off-shoring, which has opened up software development projects to global competition. However, the argument still stands - knowledge workers aren't unionized manual labour and if robots are going to replace everything, someone has to program the robots. And, there's easily going to be more 'robots' tomorrow than today for some time to come. So what could end the 'world automation' gravy train we are on right now? IMHO, the average knowledge worker has a much clearer and more present danger that the chance they might be making themselves redundant - and one that would affect pretty much everyone, not just knowledge workers. They should more concerned about that other thing that destroys demand: financial destruction. The redundancy threat that knowledge workers should be concerned about are the sins of our owners coming home to roost; another depression.

imsky 13y ago
Knowledge workers are definitely not immune to automation, I've acknowledged that in the post. They do set the bar quite high for software and intelligent agents, however. Regarding your last point, I think a knowledge worker smart enough to automate themselves out of a job will be smart enough to capitalize on that discovery. Moreover, there will always be tasks people will prefer done manually, knowledge-based or otherwise.
- wildgift 13y ago
  What if the problems to solve are becoming easier to solve, because we're more plugged-in into an infrastructure of information? That eliminates work. Standards are a good example. We love them, but, in a way, they eliminate the creation of middleware jobs that transform the data from one format to another.

sseveran 13y ago

Actually the radiologists job has proved difficult to either move overseas (requires US credentials) or automate (CAD still generates a ton of false positives). A radiologist still makes a considerable salary and is the R in the ROAD to success. Plus advances in continuous imaging and interventional procedures make it unlikely that they will see any significant decline.

imsky 13y ago
Exactly right, it seems many people assume that automation or offshoring will be a smooth and seamless process with no trade-offs. That's not the case at all, offshoring and automation present their own kind of problems.