4 ms·

It's only going to be ready by 2045? Won't better tech be developed in that timeframe making this train obsolete?

by LAMike 13y ago

masklinn 13y ago
The core of today's HST tech dates back to the 50s (the 0-series Shinkansen, the latest of which was only retired in 2008, went in service in 1964). And the first section of Chūō Shinkansen should be open in 2027, with partial opening possible as soon as 2020. FWIW, even standard (non-maglev) high-speed rail construction are not short-term projects, the 300km LGV Est Phase 1 took 5 years between the initial earthworks and the line's opening and France isn't exactly as mountainous as Japan.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
eob 13y ago
It takes time to vet, test, and build things, especially when representative government and massive land usage planning is involved. Much of the tech in modern airplanes is still from the 1950s and 1960s. The tech developed in the 2020s and 2030s will be in the trains of the 2050s-60s.
rayiner 13y ago
2045 is only ~30 years from now, and part of the line will be operational by 2027. It seems like a long time for people used to computer technology, but it's a typical generational cycle for industrial technology. The 787, for example, which is just trickling into fleets now, was in development since the late 1990's (15 years ago). Power technology has developed even more slowly. E.g. the efficiency of coal power plants has only improved by about a factor of two in the last century or so. Heck, even computer technology is progressing more slowly these days. E.g. I wouldn't call Win2k obsolete, but it's 13 years old now! So yes, the train will be a bit behind the state of the art by the time it's released, but it won't be obsolete.
- Gravityloss 13y ago
  Actually the 787 was officially started in 2003. But these planes are better known technology.
- frozenport 13y ago
  The real thing is that they already have the train? It would seem they need to solve a few problems and scale up their track.
- lifeformed 13y ago
  It just seems so foreign to work on something that you might not get to see operational in your lifetime :(
  - Eliezer 13y ago
    You have no patience. Plus you could just sign up for cryonics.
    - philwelch 13y ago
      Do you own stock in a cryonics firm?

It's only going to be ready by 2045? Won't better tech be developed in that timeframe making this train obsolete?

by LAMike 13y ago

It's only going to be ready by 2045? Won't better tech be developed in that timeframe making this train obsolete?

The core of today's HST tech dates back to the 50s (the 0-series Shinkansen, the latest of which was only retired in 2008, went in service in 1964). And the first section of Chūō Shinkansen should be open in 2027, with partial opening possible as soon as 2020. FWIW, even standard (non-maglev) high-speed rail construction are not short-term projects, the 300km LGV Est Phase 1 took 5 years between the initial earthworks and the line's opening and France isn't exactly as mountainous as Japan.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]

eob 13y ago

It takes time to vet, test, and build things, especially when representative government and massive land usage planning is involved. Much of the tech in modern airplanes is still from the 1950s and 1960s. The tech developed in the 2020s and 2030s will be in the trains of the 2050s-60s.

rayiner 13y ago

2045 is only ~30 years from now, and part of the line will be operational by 2027. It seems like a long time for people used to computer technology, but it's a typical generational cycle for industrial technology. The 787, for example, which is just trickling into fleets now, was in development since the late 1990's (15 years ago). Power technology has developed even more slowly. E.g. the efficiency of coal power plants has only improved by about a factor of two in the last century or so. Heck, even computer technology is progressing more slowly these days. E.g. I wouldn't call Win2k obsolete, but it's 13 years old now! So yes, the train will be a bit behind the state of the art by the time it's released, but it won't be obsolete.

Gravityloss 13y ago
Actually the 787 was officially started in 2003. But these planes are better known technology.
frozenport 13y ago
The real thing is that they already have the train? It would seem they need to solve a few problems and scale up their track.
lifeformed 13y ago
It just seems so foreign to work on something that you might not get to see operational in your lifetime :(
- Eliezer 13y ago
  You have no patience. Plus you could just sign up for cryonics.
  - philwelch 13y ago
    Do you own stock in a cryonics firm?