I'm not claiming that autonomous driving won't happen or won't be a massive industry in the near future (30-40 years.) My feeling is just that it won't happen t

I'm not claiming that autonomous driving won't happen or won't be a massive industry in the near future (30-40 years.) My feeling is just that it won't happen there first. Here's a couple of reasons: 1. It's a very complicated problem compared to others that could have a similarly large impact. 2. The cost of a mistake made by the robot is quite likely to kill someone. This isn't just a problem as far as lawsuits go, but it's a problem because as soon as the first accident occurs you're going to get a barrage of regulations (and quite possibly bans) on autonomous driving. 3. As soon as you can build a robot that can clean your floors, walk your dog, and bring you a beer when you want it, you're going to sell a million units in a year. Just look at the success of a fairly simple device like the Roomba. So my thinking is that autonomous dirving will be one of the later things happen as compared to other adoptions of robotics. Edit: this just reminded me of something. Not too long ago the University of Toronto solar car team was driving their solar car down the 401 highway. The driver lost control and ended up getting killed. Within a month all solar cars were banned from driving on public roads in Ontario.