5 ms·

Why the Palm Pre Will Fail

24 points by jasonlbaptiste 17y ago

swombat 17y ago
Good analysis. Pardon the pun, but it sounds like the Pré is Prétty fucked. Of course, I speak as an iPhone afficionado, so I'm probably one of those irrational Apple fans that just won't buy the "better" phone.
- ssharp 17y ago
  One of the big things analysts said when the Pre was announced was that it's release date would coincide with the expiration of the iPhone's initial 2 year contracts. I doubt there will be any mass exodus of iPhone customers. I'm sure MANY of them took the re-up deal with the 3G release.
- jawngee 17y ago
  Why do people purposely limit themselves due to an irrational allegiance to a brand? An allegiance that you pay for the privilege of having. Isn't the ideal that our choices always produce the best results? So why would you choose the counter intuitive of picking the worst result? Curious. PS. Not saying the Pre > iPhone, but your statement is rather ... strange.
  - msluyter 17y ago
    I don't think most consumers rationally weigh all the alternatives and then pick the best, especially when what's "best" may be only be a small incremental improvement. The iPhone itself was a revolutionary improvement over what existed, but even if the Pre is a better product, it's only slightly so. I'm willing to bet that iPhone users will generally continue to stick with the iPhone because a) they're familiar with it and generally pleased with it, b) they have certain investments in apps/iTunes that won't transfer.
  - HeyLaughingBoy 17y ago
    Same reason I like Nissan vehicles: their design decisions tend to resonate with me and I've had good experiences with the ones I've owned. I can't be bothered to research everything out there, so if I'm in the market for a new car my first inclination would be to see if Nissan makes something I like. Then I look around to see what else is similar and switch away only if there is substantial benefit.
ssharp 17y ago
I've been saying this all along. I still don't understand why everyone got so excited over the Pre demo at the CES. The UI doesn't look as intuitive as the iPhone. Multitasking sounds good but how well will it work? Apple didn't "overlook" multitasking. They saw that it would be a nightmare in implementing it while maintaining their usability standards and decided against it. If the Pre can't multitask efficiently, it's a useless feature that does more harm than good. And push notifications may be enough for Apple to compete in this area. QWERTY keyboard. The "big" defense against the iPhone. Having come from using a Blackberry for several years before switching to an iPhone this year, I can say that the virtual keyboard wasn't an issue at all. I'm not sure if the extra bulk of a physical keyboard is necessary, especially if the keys are too small. SDK - Web O/S sounds "sexy" but it isn't. It's not nearly as powerful and capable as the iPhone's SDK. If you thought the App Store had a lot of noise in it, wait until you see the nonsense that gets churned out by Pre "developers". Which brings me too: App Store - This was the killer feature of the iPhone v2. The built-in phone interface and integration with iTunes was killer. And the ALREADY ESTABLISHED popularity of the iPhone was enough to convince big time developers (and the small guys) to invest the time into developing for the iPhone. The Palm doesn't have this luxury. How well the Palm interfaces with it's app store and how well it integrates into synching with a computer remains to be seen. I doubt the Pre will have anywhere close to the quality of apps that the iPhone has. Hype - Hype (and killer demos) brought initial conversions for the iPhone to AT&T. The quality of the phone continues to bring them in. The Pre doesn't have this level of hype. In the tech sphere, it has hype, but nowhere close to the iPhone. And outside of the tech world, it's a big nothing. And Palm doesn't have the money Apple had to market their new phone. Release - When the iPhone released, the "gold standard" was the Blackberry, with great email, and awful internet browsing. The iPhone changed the smartphone game. Now everyone has consumer smartphones. The Pre doesn't change the game. They are just doing the same thing as everyone else. They have nicer features but it's not enough to shift markets like the iPhone did. Some of the minor features - Cut and paste. Never a big deal for me that the iPhone didn't have it. I can think of maybe 3 times in the past year that I wanted to copy and paste something. Once again, on a pure touch phone, cut and paste probably wasn't easy to do without hurting something else. The new iPhone software supports it and it's adequate enough. Price - iPhone wins by costing $200 out the door. Not a $300 price with a $100 mail in rebate. And if the rumors are true that the 8GB iPhone will be dropped to $99, it's goodnight Palm.
peterlai 17y ago
"The Pre runs the brand spanking new webOS. Big IT shops want stability and compatibility, but Palm changes operating systems like underwear." This author doesn't seem to understand the implications of having a web-based operating system of the quality that the Palm Pre promises to deliver. In my opinion, here is a better evaluation of the Palm Pre's business viability: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10234043-94.html http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10234043-94.html. This author also questions the phone's ability to win business users. At the same, he acknowledges the advantages of it's new operating system and a provides a fair evaluation of its UI.
- rbanffy 17y ago
  The author also forgets Palm stuck with good old familiar-to-developers PalmOS for more than a decade. Most apps I had on my Pilot 1000 ran flawlessly in my Palm Centro. The rest of their stuff uses Windows CE.
lallysingh 17y ago
Pretty good linkbait. sprintf(&article.title, "Why %s Will Fail", new_trend[i].title); The analysis here on HN is 10x better than the article itself.
- kyro 17y ago
  These types of comments are getting pretty old. Ironic 'cuz they're karmabait and fall inline with a stupid trend here on HN. print "Pretty good linkbait. Another %s post." % made_up_trend
  - lallysingh 17y ago
    Indeed, but how else do we fight off linkbait? I'm not sure it's worth flagging, but it's still not a good article for HN.
  - aswanson 17y ago
    print "Pretty good linkbait. Another %s post." % made_up_trend will not compile.
drawkbox 17y ago
Right now Apple has the developers, that is a good predictor of success. Not saying Apple won't mess that up badly (speaking from desktop slip-ups). Android is going about it the right way, developers. Mobile of old was not good with giving developers access. Palm was part of that old problem. Handspring was actually one of the first I remember that had a good app culture. Anyways, unless Pre attracts developers it is just a phone. The iPhone is almost another new gaming market and that is just one facet of the developer attractor.
marcofloriano 17y ago
It´s hard to predict. I don´t believe that Pre will take the place of the iPhone, but fail !? Bah, far from that ...
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
rman666 17y ago
Why will the Pre fail? Number one reason: Palm. They've messed up every product they've had. Heck, they should be iPhone. Look how much of a head start they had. "Palm" is a household name. I wish them the best of success with the Pre, but I'll be surprised if they can make it a success.
TweedHeads 17y ago
It won't fail, but it will be in a distant fourth place after iPhone, Android and Blackberry in that order.
boundlessdreamz 17y ago
Palm Pre has a better chance of becoming a success than other devices which tried to unseat iPhone * The UI looks extremely good and intuitive. This is the biggest factor in people like iPhone. Blackberry and Nokia though that adding a touch screen to their existing clunky interface is sufficient but it was not be * Verizon will carry Palm Pre in 6 months. This is really big. verizon is huge and has much better coverage than Sprint or At&T. They have been losing some customers to AT&T due to iPhone. Pre will allow them to stop that slide and offer a real competitor to iPhone. This is a win-win for both Palm and Verizon. Many were of the opinion that the biggest weakness of Pre might be its sole association with Sprint. If verizon backs Pre, it has a huge potential to be a hit. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2833749320090528 http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN283374932009... * Palm Pre Will Sync With iTunes: The feature will be built right into the device so you don’t need any third party software. But it won’t be able to play the songs you bought from iTunes Store as they have DRM. http://www.tuaw.com/2009/05/28/fortune-palm-pre-syncs-flawlessly-with-itunes/ http://www.tuaw.com/2009/05/28/fortune-palm-pre-syncs-flawle...

Good analysis. Pardon the pun, but it sounds like the Pré is Prétty fucked. Of course, I speak as an iPhone afficionado, so I'm probably one of those irrational Apple fans that just won't buy the "better" phone.

ssharp 17y ago
One of the big things analysts said when the Pre was announced was that it's release date would coincide with the expiration of the iPhone's initial 2 year contracts. I doubt there will be any mass exodus of iPhone customers. I'm sure MANY of them took the re-up deal with the 3G release.
jawngee 17y ago
Why do people purposely limit themselves due to an irrational allegiance to a brand? An allegiance that you pay for the privilege of having. Isn't the ideal that our choices always produce the best results? So why would you choose the counter intuitive of picking the worst result? Curious. PS. Not saying the Pre > iPhone, but your statement is rather ... strange.
- msluyter 17y ago
  I don't think most consumers rationally weigh all the alternatives and then pick the best, especially when what's "best" may be only be a small incremental improvement. The iPhone itself was a revolutionary improvement over what existed, but even if the Pre is a better product, it's only slightly so. I'm willing to bet that iPhone users will generally continue to stick with the iPhone because a) they're familiar with it and generally pleased with it, b) they have certain investments in apps/iTunes that won't transfer.
- HeyLaughingBoy 17y ago
  Same reason I like Nissan vehicles: their design decisions tend to resonate with me and I've had good experiences with the ones I've owned. I can't be bothered to research everything out there, so if I'm in the market for a new car my first inclination would be to see if Nissan makes something I like. Then I look around to see what else is similar and switch away only if there is substantial benefit.

ssharp 17y ago

I've been saying this all along. I still don't understand why everyone got so excited over the Pre demo at the CES. The UI doesn't look as intuitive as the iPhone. Multitasking sounds good but how well will it work? Apple didn't "overlook" multitasking. They saw that it would be a nightmare in implementing it while maintaining their usability standards and decided against it. If the Pre can't multitask efficiently, it's a useless feature that does more harm than good. And push notifications may be enough for Apple to compete in this area. QWERTY keyboard. The "big" defense against the iPhone. Having come from using a Blackberry for several years before switching to an iPhone this year, I can say that the virtual keyboard wasn't an issue at all. I'm not sure if the extra bulk of a physical keyboard is necessary, especially if the keys are too small. SDK - Web O/S sounds "sexy" but it isn't. It's not nearly as powerful and capable as the iPhone's SDK. If you thought the App Store had a lot of noise in it, wait until you see the nonsense that gets churned out by Pre "developers". Which brings me too: App Store - This was the killer feature of the iPhone v2. The built-in phone interface and integration with iTunes was killer. And the ALREADY ESTABLISHED popularity of the iPhone was enough to convince big time developers (and the small guys) to invest the time into developing for the iPhone. The Palm doesn't have this luxury. How well the Palm interfaces with it's app store and how well it integrates into synching with a computer remains to be seen. I doubt the Pre will have anywhere close to the quality of apps that the iPhone has. Hype - Hype (and killer demos) brought initial conversions for the iPhone to AT&T. The quality of the phone continues to bring them in. The Pre doesn't have this level of hype. In the tech sphere, it has hype, but nowhere close to the iPhone. And outside of the tech world, it's a big nothing. And Palm doesn't have the money Apple had to market their new phone. Release - When the iPhone released, the "gold standard" was the Blackberry, with great email, and awful internet browsing. The iPhone changed the smartphone game. Now everyone has consumer smartphones. The Pre doesn't change the game. They are just doing the same thing as everyone else. They have nicer features but it's not enough to shift markets like the iPhone did. Some of the minor features - Cut and paste. Never a big deal for me that the iPhone didn't have it. I can think of maybe 3 times in the past year that I wanted to copy and paste something. Once again, on a pure touch phone, cut and paste probably wasn't easy to do without hurting something else. The new iPhone software supports it and it's adequate enough. Price - iPhone wins by costing $200 out the door. Not a $300 price with a $100 mail in rebate. And if the rumors are true that the 8GB iPhone will be dropped to $99, it's goodnight Palm.

peterlai 17y ago

"The Pre runs the brand spanking new webOS. Big IT shops want stability and compatibility, but Palm changes operating systems like underwear." This author doesn't seem to understand the implications of having a web-based operating system of the quality that the Palm Pre promises to deliver. In my opinion, here is a better evaluation of the Palm Pre's business viability: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10234043-94.html http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10234043-94.html. This author also questions the phone's ability to win business users. At the same, he acknowledges the advantages of it's new operating system and a provides a fair evaluation of its UI.

rbanffy 17y ago
The author also forgets Palm stuck with good old familiar-to-developers PalmOS for more than a decade. Most apps I had on my Pilot 1000 ran flawlessly in my Palm Centro. The rest of their stuff uses Windows CE.

lallysingh 17y ago

Pretty good linkbait. sprintf(&article.title, "Why %s Will Fail", new_trend[i].title); The analysis here on HN is 10x better than the article itself.

kyro 17y ago
These types of comments are getting pretty old. Ironic 'cuz they're karmabait and fall inline with a stupid trend here on HN. print "Pretty good linkbait. Another %s post." % made_up_trend
- lallysingh 17y ago
  Indeed, but how else do we fight off linkbait? I'm not sure it's worth flagging, but it's still not a good article for HN.
- aswanson 17y ago
  print "Pretty good linkbait. Another %s post." % made_up_trend will not compile.

drawkbox 17y ago

Right now Apple has the developers, that is a good predictor of success. Not saying Apple won't mess that up badly (speaking from desktop slip-ups). Android is going about it the right way, developers. Mobile of old was not good with giving developers access. Palm was part of that old problem. Handspring was actually one of the first I remember that had a good app culture. Anyways, unless Pre attracts developers it is just a phone. The iPhone is almost another new gaming market and that is just one facet of the developer attractor.

marcofloriano 17y ago

It´s hard to predict. I don´t believe that Pre will take the place of the iPhone, but fail !? Bah, far from that ...

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

rman666 17y ago

Why will the Pre fail? Number one reason: Palm. They've messed up every product they've had. Heck, they should be iPhone. Look how much of a head start they had. "Palm" is a household name. I wish them the best of success with the Pre, but I'll be surprised if they can make it a success.

TweedHeads 17y ago

It won't fail, but it will be in a distant fourth place after iPhone, Android and Blackberry in that order.

boundlessdreamz 17y ago

Palm Pre has a better chance of becoming a success than other devices which tried to unseat iPhone * The UI looks extremely good and intuitive. This is the biggest factor in people like iPhone. Blackberry and Nokia though that adding a touch screen to their existing clunky interface is sufficient but it was not be * Verizon will carry Palm Pre in 6 months. This is really big. verizon is huge and has much better coverage than Sprint or At&T. They have been losing some customers to AT&T due to iPhone. Pre will allow them to stop that slide and offer a real competitor to iPhone. This is a win-win for both Palm and Verizon. Many were of the opinion that the biggest weakness of Pre might be its sole association with Sprint. If verizon backs Pre, it has a huge potential to be a hit. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2833749320090528 http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN283374932009... * Palm Pre Will Sync With iTunes: The feature will be built right into the device so you don’t need any third party software. But it won’t be able to play the songs you bought from iTunes Store as they have DRM. http://www.tuaw.com/2009/05/28/fortune-palm-pre-syncs-flawlessly-with-itunes/ http://www.tuaw.com/2009/05/28/fortune-palm-pre-syncs-flawle...