4 ms·
x EL panels No, but they're to expensive for usage on every wall. Personally, I think they'll be pushed towards fringe applications by a technology Asmimov did
by solistice 13y ago
x EL panels
No, but they're to expensive for usage on every wall. Personally, I think they'll be pushed towards fringe applications by a technology Asmimov didn't predict. High efficiency LEDs.
x Smart glass
Yes, but again a cost question. There's this [http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2012/01/10/t-ts-samsung-clear-tv.fortune/ http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2012/01/10/t-ts-samsun...], by Samsung. I don't see why you couldn't replace your windows with such screens if you had the spare dough. Also, there's privacy glass, which is cheaper, but still sets you back 500USD/m².
x Fusion power plants.
Those might be a couple of years off.
x Radioactive batteries.
Exist, but not in the scale and power density Asimov predicts. There are nuclear batteries for pacemakers [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacel http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacel].
x Moving sidewalks
Yep, only at chokepoints and long stretches of unidirectional people movement indoors.
x Moon colonies.
They're on the other side, hiding. Trust me on this one.
A lot of these points are arguable. I'm easily excitable, so I consider technological feasibility/existence as a check, but your view on it may be more somber (It has to be exactly as he predicted). I'm just amazed he got that much of it right.
On a side note, why couldn't the non-asimov prediction with blimp filled skies come true? They're like sky whales...and I really should get some sleep.
- officemonkey 13y agoThere are several lighter than air gasses. Helium is rare, Neon is rarer, and Hydrogen is explosive and has really bad press. Methane is explosive as well. Ammonia, Hydrogen flouride, and Diborane are either reactive or toxic. Helium, Hydrogen and hot air are the most popular options, but none of them are as safe or cheap as plain old planes.
- solistice 13y agoI know that technically blimps make little sense except in fringe applications. But they're majestic, and I like that.
- takluyver 13y agoThe article distinguishes between what would be technically possible in 2014 and what would be in everyday use, so I think Asimov is being judged against roughly those criteria. Moving sidewalks: I don't think the airport walkways count. Conveyor belts and escalators were both around long before 1964. The prediction is about where they'd be used.