3 ms·

People put so much weight on leadership. Microsoft when Balmer took over had one direction to go: down. It's reversion to the mean. Eventually a company is g

People put so much weight on leadership. Microsoft when Balmer took over had one direction to go: down. It's reversion to the mean. Eventually a company is going to roll 7 on the craps table. Unless Cook is extremely lucky and skilled, in 5 or 10 years people will say the same thing about Apple. Days of stagnation and decline will also visit Google and Facebook eventually. I understand our fixation on leadership. It is super important. But as a thought experiment, I wonder if Steve Jobs was running Microsoft 2000-2010 instead of Steve Balmer, would Microsoft be in great condition today? Or were there already internal and external forces at play at that point that were trouble for Microsoft? I guess the ultimate lesson is one you can learn from Bill Gates: quit while you're ahead.

michaelwww 13y ago
> Microsoft when Balmer took over had one direction to go: down Not at all. As mentioned here in the Vanity Fair [1] article, the iPhone could have been a Micosoft product and now brings in more revenue than the entirety of Microsoft. Ballmer said "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." If you cut through everything else said, I think this is pretty damning. [1] http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2012/08/microsoft-lost-mojo-steve-ballmer http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2012/08/microsoft-lost-mo...
- hudell 13y ago
  Well, if apple hadn't been forced to release iOS sdk, it probably wouldn't get any significant market share as he predicted.
  - CamperBob2 13y ago
    The iOS SDK was always going to be released, but only for the (then-unannounced) iPad. That's how they were able to change their tune so quickly when users demanded more than web apps.
  - michaelwww 13y ago
    How was it forced? Steve Jobs: Let me just say it: We want native third party applications on the iPhone, and we plan to have an SDK in developers’ hands in February. We are excited about creating a vibrant third party developer community around the iPhone and enabling hundreds of new applications for our users. [1] Oct 18, 2007 [1] https://discussions.apple.com/thread/1183763?start=0&tstart=0 https://discussions.apple.com/thread/1183763?start=0&tstart=...

michaelwww 13y ago

> Microsoft when Balmer took over had one direction to go: down Not at all. As mentioned here in the Vanity Fair [1] article, the iPhone could have been a Micosoft product and now brings in more revenue than the entirety of Microsoft. Ballmer said "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." If you cut through everything else said, I think this is pretty damning. [1] http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2012/08/microsoft-lost-mojo-steve-ballmer http://www.vanityfair.com/business/2012/08/microsoft-lost-mo...

hudell 13y ago
Well, if apple hadn't been forced to release iOS sdk, it probably wouldn't get any significant market share as he predicted.
- CamperBob2 13y ago
  The iOS SDK was always going to be released, but only for the (then-unannounced) iPad. That's how they were able to change their tune so quickly when users demanded more than web apps.
- michaelwww 13y ago
  How was it forced? Steve Jobs: Let me just say it: We want native third party applications on the iPhone, and we plan to have an SDK in developers’ hands in February. We are excited about creating a vibrant third party developer community around the iPhone and enabling hundreds of new applications for our users. [1] Oct 18, 2007 [1] https://discussions.apple.com/thread/1183763?start=0&tstart=0 https://discussions.apple.com/thread/1183763?start=0&tstart=...