If they don't know they're watching someone with an accuracy of 60% over hundreds of shots and instead have to judge on nothing but 10 consecutive hits, it's a

If they don't know they're watching someone with an accuracy of 60% over hundreds of shots and instead have to judge on nothing but 10 consecutive hits, it's actually perfectly rational to overestimate his ability, though it should of course have a low confidence and be constrained to the known possible range.