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The markets where Microsoft makes money are almost identical to the markets that they made money in pre-Ballmer, despite a massively changed computing landscape
by corresation 13y ago
The markets where Microsoft makes money are almost identical to the markets that they made money in pre-Ballmer, despite a massively changed computing landscape, and it is possibly inertia that has them still making loads of profits.
But inertia fades: Exchange servers are being decommissioned. SQL Server instances are being replaced. People are supplanting an enormous amount of computing time that they did on desktops with non-Microsoft tablets and smartphone devices, which is a migration that makes Windows dramatically less entrenched (Office was once the lynchpin of Microsoft's maintenance of a captive market, however the need to use a mix of devices has made Office much less palatable than it once was). In other markets, such as online and Home and Entertainment, it has been a decade of losses, and the xbox is being usurped right as Microsoft was supposed to start profiting off of their moves.
And as this happens, Microsoft has responded by essentially tapping their existing business customer base to make up for lost market. The prices of some of the new versions are extraordinary (e.g. a Sharepoint 2013 deploy), leading to more departures. It is unsustainable.
Microsoft today feels very similar to RIM of 2010 -- the profits are still there, but the industry has moved on. In no way does that mean that they're doomed, and they can still pivot, but things don't look good.
Many younger people on HN have no knowledge of just how much Microsoft dominated technology at the turn of the millennium. I remember eagerly waiting for betas of far off Microsoft products, because every shift of Microsoft had a profound impact on the entire industry.