Overconfidence bias is very real. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect Try asking people to g

Overconfidence bias is very real. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect Try asking people to guess a bunch of #s with 90% confidence intervals and see how often they are wrong. (Examples: Population of the US, Circumference of the Earth...) What does this mean for leadership? The very thing we are looking for (confidence) undermines good decisions. So how should less confidence people inspire? That's the tough question. Some of the best professors I've had (in terms of both research production and teaching quality) have been amongst the most humble. Corporate leaders - perhaps less so. Though when you do follow a leader with humility, the strength that they project comes from a deeper place.