Although the discussion of the Kelly criterion is an interesting academic exercise, the analysis does not apply to an actual lottery like 6/49, because it is ba

Although the discussion of the Kelly criterion is an interesting academic exercise, the analysis does not apply to an actual lottery like 6/49, because it is based on a false assumption: ... "assuming that I can avoid picking the same numbers as someone else". Unfortunately, as the number of tickets purchased increases, the probability that another person chooses the same numbers as you also increases. Thus, when there is a large prize, it becomes very likely that it will be shared.