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Guy Kawasaki: Can't spot a good investment, but he can run his mouth
- chaostheory 19y agohe's pretty damn good at running his mouth though...
- byrneseyeview 19y agoI wonder how useful a heuristic this is: when people who fail at something tell you it's a crapshoot, and people who succeed tell you it's science. [Nassim Nicholas Taleb](http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/1587990717 http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Market...) made some money in the market, but he says most successful traders are lucky. But [John D. Rockefeller](http://www.amazon.com/Titan-Life-John-Rockefeller-Sr/dp/0679438084 http://www.amazon.com/Titan-Life-John-Rockefeller-Sr/dp/0679...) made a lot more, and he said his money was foreordained. Another data point: most successful gamblers seem to treat gambling as a science; bad ones seem to have more OCD rituals to go along with their losing streaks.
- jamesbritt 19y agoTaleb's books seem to make a good case, though, for market success featuring considerable luck. Also, a variation on this rule of thumb: When other people demonstrate a remarkable skill (dancing, drawing, playing an instrument) it's talent. When you can do it, it's hard work and practice.
- dcurtis 19y agoHe's just a lucky guy with a valuable name and some intelligent things that he regurgitates in his books. Not very impressive. 250k old men with cats in their refrigerators? How deluded do you have to be to think that about the blogosphere?