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It's a little disturbing to think that autocratic China at least seems to be able to plan decades ahead, while free America is largely stuck in quarterly busine

by lukifer 13y ago

It's a little disturbing to think that autocratic China at least seems to be able to plan decades ahead, while free America is largely stuck in quarterly business cycles and two-year political cycles. An oversimplification in both cases to be sure, but our culture could definitely learn some things about being patient and thinking ahead.

jotm 13y ago
Today's champions are tomorrow's losers, that's the way it is... Maybe in a few decades we'll all have to learn Mandarin if we want to start a successful business :-)
enko 13y ago
If you look around a bit you'll find a lot of people who are rather bearish on democracy as practised in the first world west - professional politicians with no real world experience, being voted in by the cynical, uninformed masses, propagandised by bought and paid for mass media. Democracy has collided with the middle class and a free press concerned only with their own interests and come off second best - bitter, entrenched political paralysis at best. Like unions, it was a wonderful idea at the time, but now the cure is basically worse than the disease. Frankly, the age of democracy is over, and we now have the age of the permanent civil service. The good news is, it is almost certainly an improvement. China, Japan and Singapore are run exclusively by their civil services (democracy in the latter two is an irrelevant sideshow), and they are run much better than most western countries, or at least with more long term strategy. In fact, pretty much everything wrong with Japan can be blamed on the idiot government trying to save face by not admitting reality. The USA would be pretty well served, IMO, by taking control of budget away from congress and giving it to - well, almost anyone. The GAO, maybe. The Fed, the SEC, the commerce dept, anyone, so long as they're not elected. Being accountable to the electorate turns out to be the worst idea ever for people who are actually trying to do their jobs. It means never being able to admit you're wrong. I don't mind if they keep parliament/congress around for show but they're going to go the way of the Queen of England - a figurehead, kind of a sounding board for the people, a super-ombudsman. A hundred years from now we're going to look back and wonder how we ever could have been so mad to think that giving politicians the reigns of power could ever have been a good idea.
- apalmer 13y ago
  Ehhhh honestly real talk is 'controlled' economies have some of the absolute worst economic horror stories. I mean China during much of Mao's run experienced staggeringly bad management.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- enko 13y ago
  To the person who replied quoting the Economist about democracy in Japan, then deleted their comment - thanks for the link. Well yes, on a superficial level, I suppose democracy is kind of healthy in Japan. It sort of misses the point though. Japanese Govt, like that in Singapore and South Korea, is characterised by the extreme strengths of their bureaucracies. It would be fair to say that the Japanese Diet, their government, is basically a peer to the JR railway company or MOFA. Imagine if in the USG, all the departments basically operated at the level of the DoD or Dept of State - frankly at the same level as congress. Congress can declare war on the DoD, sure, but would only do so under the most dire circumstances. In practise they cooperate. Well, in Japan, that's how it is. Basically, the government could probably, if it came down to it, fire the heads of the bureaucracies, but it won't come to that and never has. They are peers for all practical purposes. They are like competing departments in a large corporation. You might think that is a recipe for wastefulness and corruption, and you would be absolutely right, but in a crazy sort of way they keep each other honest, somewhat, and it's better than Fox News making all your decisions. Don't get me wrong, I'm not some fanatical Japanophile - I don't even live there anymore. But man, at least they can get at least some stuff done. In the west we could not even dream of having a 50-year high speed rail plan. Just think about that. What does that say about us? Look, we're not a dystopia, but we're still basically coasting on past success. The car is still moving, but it's slowing down. Maybe we ran out of gas, or maybe we're so caught up in fight about which way to drive we can't even put our foot on the accelerator. Corporations that lose the ability to invest in or even think about the long term go out of business. I don't believe countries are any different. We are going to have to change, radically, or we'll simply be taken over - it's only a matter of time.
gadders 13y ago
Yeah, but look who you have planning ahead - politicians. If that's not a good point against it I don't know what is.
Florin_Andrei 13y ago
> while free America is largely stuck in quarterly business cycles and two-year political cycles Key word here is "free". America's self-defeat will come from its misunderstood idea of "freedom" - really, just a self-centered attitude that hampers cooperation.
- ahomescu1 13y ago
  I wouldn't call it misunderstood. You're free to be selfish or cooperate, your choice. It's not freedom unless you can choose.
  - Florin_Andrei 13y ago
    > you can choose The last few decades of research in psychology and neuroscience are pointing at all sorts of issues with that part.
snowwrestler 13y ago
Planning ahead is not difficult. Planning ahead accurately is very difficult. And adjusting your plans to take new information into account is even more difficult. China's economic central planning has worked so well to date because they have had larger, more successful economies to plan against--the U.S. and Europe. They have focused on exports, infrastructure, and exfiltration of intellectual property, in the hope of creating the foundation for a strong domestic economy. Whether it will work remains to be seen. The 20th century clearly taught the world that central planning cannot maintain a consistently strong domestic economy; innovation happens too slowly. China's greatest challenge will be the transition to a more open and permissive society that is capable of bootstrapping its own innovations. This could be a very difficult transition for them culturally. Central planners very rarely give up their control and power peacefully.
enraged_camel 13y ago
That's one of the advantages of a regime like China's: if you are fairly confident that you will stay in power for decades, then you have a certain "ease of mind" with which you can plan long-term. Whereas in most democracies the party in power always has to worry about the next election.
- tsotha 13y ago
  Sure, you can plan long term, assuming you're relatively principled and are looking out for the interests of your country. But that kind of situation is an open invitation for personal enrichment, too. China has had relatively good economic leadership recently, but when that changes the lack of "the next election" can be a serious problem.
nunb 13y ago
you might find Moldbug interesting then. moldbuggery.blogspot.in
alexeisadeski3 13y ago
Who the hell cares about what governments plan for?

by lukifer 13y ago

jotm 13y ago

Today's champions are tomorrow's losers, that's the way it is... Maybe in a few decades we'll all have to learn Mandarin if we want to start a successful business :-)

enko 13y ago

If you look around a bit you'll find a lot of people who are rather bearish on democracy as practised in the first world west - professional politicians with no real world experience, being voted in by the cynical, uninformed masses, propagandised by bought and paid for mass media. Democracy has collided with the middle class and a free press concerned only with their own interests and come off second best - bitter, entrenched political paralysis at best. Like unions, it was a wonderful idea at the time, but now the cure is basically worse than the disease. Frankly, the age of democracy is over, and we now have the age of the permanent civil service. The good news is, it is almost certainly an improvement. China, Japan and Singapore are run exclusively by their civil services (democracy in the latter two is an irrelevant sideshow), and they are run much better than most western countries, or at least with more long term strategy. In fact, pretty much everything wrong with Japan can be blamed on the idiot government trying to save face by not admitting reality. The USA would be pretty well served, IMO, by taking control of budget away from congress and giving it to - well, almost anyone. The GAO, maybe. The Fed, the SEC, the commerce dept, anyone, so long as they're not elected. Being accountable to the electorate turns out to be the worst idea ever for people who are actually trying to do their jobs. It means never being able to admit you're wrong. I don't mind if they keep parliament/congress around for show but they're going to go the way of the Queen of England - a figurehead, kind of a sounding board for the people, a super-ombudsman. A hundred years from now we're going to look back and wonder how we ever could have been so mad to think that giving politicians the reigns of power could ever have been a good idea.

apalmer 13y ago
Ehhhh honestly real talk is 'controlled' economies have some of the absolute worst economic horror stories. I mean China during much of Mao's run experienced staggeringly bad management.
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
enko 13y ago
To the person who replied quoting the Economist about democracy in Japan, then deleted their comment - thanks for the link. Well yes, on a superficial level, I suppose democracy is kind of healthy in Japan. It sort of misses the point though. Japanese Govt, like that in Singapore and South Korea, is characterised by the extreme strengths of their bureaucracies. It would be fair to say that the Japanese Diet, their government, is basically a peer to the JR railway company or MOFA. Imagine if in the USG, all the departments basically operated at the level of the DoD or Dept of State - frankly at the same level as congress. Congress can declare war on the DoD, sure, but would only do so under the most dire circumstances. In practise they cooperate. Well, in Japan, that's how it is. Basically, the government could probably, if it came down to it, fire the heads of the bureaucracies, but it won't come to that and never has. They are peers for all practical purposes. They are like competing departments in a large corporation. You might think that is a recipe for wastefulness and corruption, and you would be absolutely right, but in a crazy sort of way they keep each other honest, somewhat, and it's better than Fox News making all your decisions. Don't get me wrong, I'm not some fanatical Japanophile - I don't even live there anymore. But man, at least they can get at least some stuff done. In the west we could not even dream of having a 50-year high speed rail plan. Just think about that. What does that say about us? Look, we're not a dystopia, but we're still basically coasting on past success. The car is still moving, but it's slowing down. Maybe we ran out of gas, or maybe we're so caught up in fight about which way to drive we can't even put our foot on the accelerator. Corporations that lose the ability to invest in or even think about the long term go out of business. I don't believe countries are any different. We are going to have to change, radically, or we'll simply be taken over - it's only a matter of time.

gadders 13y ago

Yeah, but look who you have planning ahead - politicians. If that's not a good point against it I don't know what is.

Florin_Andrei 13y ago

> while free America is largely stuck in quarterly business cycles and two-year political cycles Key word here is "free". America's self-defeat will come from its misunderstood idea of "freedom" - really, just a self-centered attitude that hampers cooperation.

ahomescu1 13y ago
I wouldn't call it misunderstood. You're free to be selfish or cooperate, your choice. It's not freedom unless you can choose.
- Florin_Andrei 13y ago
  > you can choose The last few decades of research in psychology and neuroscience are pointing at all sorts of issues with that part.

snowwrestler 13y ago

Planning ahead is not difficult. Planning ahead accurately is very difficult. And adjusting your plans to take new information into account is even more difficult. China's economic central planning has worked so well to date because they have had larger, more successful economies to plan against--the U.S. and Europe. They have focused on exports, infrastructure, and exfiltration of intellectual property, in the hope of creating the foundation for a strong domestic economy. Whether it will work remains to be seen. The 20th century clearly taught the world that central planning cannot maintain a consistently strong domestic economy; innovation happens too slowly. China's greatest challenge will be the transition to a more open and permissive society that is capable of bootstrapping its own innovations. This could be a very difficult transition for them culturally. Central planners very rarely give up their control and power peacefully.

enraged_camel 13y ago

That's one of the advantages of a regime like China's: if you are fairly confident that you will stay in power for decades, then you have a certain "ease of mind" with which you can plan long-term. Whereas in most democracies the party in power always has to worry about the next election.

tsotha 13y ago
Sure, you can plan long term, assuming you're relatively principled and are looking out for the interests of your country. But that kind of situation is an open invitation for personal enrichment, too. China has had relatively good economic leadership recently, but when that changes the lack of "the next election" can be a serious problem.

nunb 13y ago

you might find Moldbug interesting then. moldbuggery.blogspot.in

alexeisadeski3 13y ago

Who the hell cares about what governments plan for?