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I'm still amazed that until maybe 2002, the Chinese nuclear arsenal was most likely smaller than the (unconfirmed) Israeli arsenal, at around 50 weapons -- a g
by rdl 13y ago
I'm still amazed that until maybe 2002, the Chinese nuclear arsenal was most likely smaller than the (unconfirmed) Israeli arsenal, at around 50 weapons -- a genuine deterrent, but certainly not enough to wage a first strike, and probably not survivable vs. a counterforce first strike from US or Russia (probably enough vs. India/UK/France, though). Apparently they've stepped up to surpass the Europeans, though.
- caf 13y agoThis strategy is known as "Minimum Deterrence". Jeffrey Lewis has written a book on the PRC's strategic nuclear force posture that explores this: http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/minimum-means-reprisal http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/minimum-means-reprisal ...and a short essay on the broader concept of Minimum Deterrence: http://newamerica.net/node/8908 http://newamerica.net/node/8908 China's force is intended to be survivable despite its small size. Their ICBM force is road-mobile, launched from TELs rather than fixed silos.