3 ms·

Tesla - we may not see the forest for the trees

13 points by cjbenedikt 13y ago

It is interesting to see that everybody analysing or commenting on Tesla seems to focus on the car (=tree). Looking at Musk's track record we may not see the forest. Should he be able to create the nationwide blanket of charging stations and - on top - deliver 5-minute-charging cycles to refill, every other manufacturer in this space will have to adopt Tesla's standards in order to allow his customers to use Tesla's charging stations - for a fee of course. Tesla would then dominate this market for years to come - just as Apple did early on. Musk/Tesla would have single handedly not only created but also control the electric car market.

rst 13y ago
FYI, this might have gotten more eyes as a comment on one of the (fairly numerous) Tesla-related submissions here. A submission needs several upvotes within a half hour or so of submission to make the front page, or it sinks without a trace. And text submissions, IIRC, take more --- the front-page ranking algorithm isn't fully disclosed, in part to make things harder for the people who keep trying to game it, but I believe text submissions do get a penalty compared to those that are just a plain URL.
jared314 13y ago
I think the car is the primary point of discussion, because it is currently the only thing that can be questioned on technical merits. I already share your observation, as with most people I have actually spoken to, about the future prospects of Tesla, and I am patiently waiting for charing stations near me before I buy one. But, most Tesla supporters don't need to comment on a forum, because they have already shown their support by actually investing in the company, either through purchasing a car, buying stock, or both. But, for the rest of the world, being pedantic is an easy way to be heard, and everyone wants to be heard. Also, they did not create the electric car market, they only revived it. (See previous point.)
nicholas73 13y ago
This is a wildly optimistic prediction. Listing some risks off the top of my head: 1) Viability of stations - cost to build/maintain stations, technical challenges for battery swap, customer acceptance of swap 2) Widespread adoption of EVs - so far they are only economical for luxury cars and with tax credits 3) Probability of competitive charging stations 4) Actual need for charging stations - really, only needed to do long trips. 5) Whether adoption of Tesla standards actually cedes any advantage. I think control of the EV market is unlikely.
lifeisstillgood 13y ago
And I would guess he would avoid the interstates and start on Route 66. Interstates are boring, and have chains of gas stations. You might be able to piggy back the deliveries onto chain-gas-stations more easily but you lose control. Smaller towns along a world famous route, harkening back to American self-mythology, plus Independant stores who will be glad of the extra income and attention. There you could own the industry.

13 points by cjbenedikt 13y ago

rst 13y ago

FYI, this might have gotten more eyes as a comment on one of the (fairly numerous) Tesla-related submissions here. A submission needs several upvotes within a half hour or so of submission to make the front page, or it sinks without a trace. And text submissions, IIRC, take more --- the front-page ranking algorithm isn't fully disclosed, in part to make things harder for the people who keep trying to game it, but I believe text submissions do get a penalty compared to those that are just a plain URL.

jared314 13y ago

I think the car is the primary point of discussion, because it is currently the only thing that can be questioned on technical merits. I already share your observation, as with most people I have actually spoken to, about the future prospects of Tesla, and I am patiently waiting for charing stations near me before I buy one. But, most Tesla supporters don't need to comment on a forum, because they have already shown their support by actually investing in the company, either through purchasing a car, buying stock, or both. But, for the rest of the world, being pedantic is an easy way to be heard, and everyone wants to be heard. Also, they did not create the electric car market, they only revived it. (See previous point.)

nicholas73 13y ago

This is a wildly optimistic prediction. Listing some risks off the top of my head: 1) Viability of stations - cost to build/maintain stations, technical challenges for battery swap, customer acceptance of swap 2) Widespread adoption of EVs - so far they are only economical for luxury cars and with tax credits 3) Probability of competitive charging stations 4) Actual need for charging stations - really, only needed to do long trips. 5) Whether adoption of Tesla standards actually cedes any advantage. I think control of the EV market is unlikely.

lifeisstillgood 13y ago

And I would guess he would avoid the interstates and start on Route 66. Interstates are boring, and have chains of gas stations. You might be able to piggy back the deliveries onto chain-gas-stations more easily but you lose control. Smaller towns along a world famous route, harkening back to American self-mythology, plus Independant stores who will be glad of the extra income and attention. There you could own the industry.