> Kelly says, if there is a positive expected value, there is an optimal amount to bet Yes, and the optimal amount to bet here is for all practical purposes eq

> Kelly says, if there is a positive expected value, there is an optimal amount to bet Yes, and the optimal amount to bet here is for all practical purposes equal to zero. In short, you don't have a large enough stack to keep on taking this bet until it pays you back. I tend to agree with your wider point, that you can treat life as a long-term sequence of taking risky bets and use Kelly to approximate that. However, even if you did have an equivalent opportunity to this all day every day (which is itself hard to assert), Kelly is saying you definitely shouldn't take it here. If you don't have that repeated opportunity, Kelly-type thinking just leads to an even stronger conclusion - you definitely definitely shouldn't take it. Good luck to everyone if you're playing the lottery :) Until the numbers are drawn, you still have a chance ;)