I think they're making a rational call that they can't weed out which ones will make it. So in your example, they would need to invest in more than twice as ma

I think they're making a rational call that they can't weed out which ones will make it. So in your example, they would need to invest in more than twice as many at the lower valuation to get the same # of successes. Just being the devil's advocate. (Not that I intend to compare VCs to devils!)