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In my opinion, using expected value to evaluate lotteries is not correct. Realistically, there are only two outcomes. Either you win millions, or you lose a few
by rverghes 13y ago
In my opinion, using expected value to evaluate lotteries is not correct. Realistically, there are only two outcomes. Either you win millions, or you lose a few thousand over several years. The future where your outcome matches the expected value never actually occurs.
This is unlike games like blackjack, poker, or roulette, where the expected value does match the eventual outcome.
So if you can live with the second outcome, playing the lottery is fine. But using expected value does not seem appropriate to me.
- rodly 13y ago> In my opinion, using expected value to evaluate lotteries is not correct. Realistically, Expected value is realistic. The relation to casino games is silly seeing as the timelines for a few hands of blackjack are several orders of magnitude shorter than buying a ticket for a $300+ million dollar lottery.