4 ms·

Show HN: Apps ranked by valuation

41 points by diziet 13y ago

mashmac2 13y ago
How are these valuations calculated? For example, Instagram has an estimated value of ~$4.6 Billion, but it's actual value (based on purchase by FB) is ~$1 Billion. The page doesn't provide a clear link on how they estimated the valuations, either... Edit: If you click on one of them, then mouse-over the valuation on that page, if offers the following explanation: "To calculate App Worth, we take into account many factors and metrics: - User Estimates - User Activity - International Reach - Revenue Estimates - Sensor Tower Secret Sauce™"
- megablast 13y ago
  Not sure why this is secret. A formula would be useful, but I guess this is just a fun estimate.
  - diziet 13y ago
    Part of the reason for that is that I didn't want people gaming the algorithm. The things it looks at are user numbers, revenue estimates (very good here~) and internationalization when computing the worth.
    - blowski 13y ago
      Some of the valuations raise a bit of an eyebrow - e.g. BatteryHD valued at nearly $41M. * In the case of apps that are native versions of web services (e.g. Flickr, Twitter) it's impossible to separate the value of the app from the service, so is your valuation of the whole service? * How do you factor in possible future growth, based on potential size of market, current market saturation, and possible revenue streams? It seems like they would be very difficult to automate. So the valuation of the app-maker is probably more interesting than the value of the app itself. A company that has made one very successful app is more likely to make other successful apps, because of branding and experience.
- scholia 13y ago
  Instagram was presumably worth $1 billion when Facebook bought it 16 months ago. That doesn't tell you what it would be worth today.
soup10 13y ago
Dunno how accurate this is for the biggest and free apps, but I own a medium size paid app and it seems reasonable. The search/keyword graphs they have are interesting too, haven't seen that data before.
kranner 13y ago
Apparently there's a lot more money in Bible apps than I had imagined. If this ordering is close to being accurate, it's a wonderful resource to reflect on to understand what consumers truly care about.
- diziet 13y ago
  We've also got an ordering based on number of ratings: https://sensortower.com/ios/leaderboard/estimated-app-worth/all-categories https://sensortower.com/ios/leaderboard/estimated-app-worth/... With the Bible app, I was surprised too when it showed up -- but the app has over 30 million users. It's quite bigger than a lot of funded social networks, it is just a matter of monetizing or engaging the users properly. Religion is a big market!
  - kranner 13y ago
    Thanks for this resource!
Gurrewe 13y ago
They seem to have mixed up Sweden with Slovakia. Funny.
irollboozers 13y ago
Looks great! One curious thing I'd be interested to see is the sum of the values of all the apps and how it compares with Apple's estimates.
k-mcgrady 13y ago
Not exactly sure how the valuations are calculated but they don't seem too accurate. I looked at my own apps and some that should have appeared didn't, others that shouldn't have appeared did.
bruceboughton 13y ago
So: - Pandora's app is worth $1.7bn - Google's Search app is only worth $0.7bn Riiiiight...
- netcan 13y ago
  If pandora didn't have the pandora app, it would be out of business. If google didn't have the google search app.. it would probably not be noticeable on its balance sheets.
  - bruceboughton 13y ago
    Pandora existed before it had an app so I'm not sure it would be out of business. A significant proportion of its business may go through the app but that's not the same thing. Google is a vastly bigger scale business though so I'm surprised such a small percentage of its profit is attributed to the app. Especially as they are pushing Google Now. In general, though, I'm not sure the attribution of profits to apps is consistent for multi-platform businesses.
codeka 13y ago
I wouldn't put any games in the top ten (or even top 50). I don't see Candy Crush or Clash of Clans being around six months from now, so I don't see how it could be worth anywhere near $1.36B...
- diziet 13y ago
  Well, given that Clash of Clans has been around and in the top 3~ grossing consistently for the last year, and Candy Crush has been at #1 for a year and a half, and neither show any substantial signs of slowing down and are improving on game mechanics and monetization strategies I would take your wager. These apps are very international and in the App Store terms, a year is quite a long time.
  - scholia 13y ago
    I'm with you on Candy Crush (my family has numerous addicts) but I'm not sure it's worth so much more than Angry Birds. Angry Birds also makes money offline (soft toys etc) but presumably that's not covered in your table....
netcan 13y ago
Accuracy aside, this is interesting. The thing that always sands out to me in any "thing - value" list always how little correlation there is between hard/complicated things and value. Whatsapp vs Viber. Kindle vs Bible. Waze/Google maps vs Urban Spoon/Yelp. Creating an awesome bible app seems incredibly doable.
- diziet 13y ago
  Yep, creating an awesome Bible app is doable. Getting people to download and use it, that's the hard part!
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
cpursley 13y ago
I'm a valuer/appraiser by trade and would be interested to know how you're making calculations. Direct cap or irr (DCF)? A dollar amount multiplied per estimated user?
stevenp 13y ago
I will happily sell my apps for the price listed. Who should I contact for my check? :)

41 points by diziet 13y ago

How are these valuations calculated? For example, Instagram has an estimated value of ~$4.6 Billion, but it's actual value (based on purchase by FB) is ~$1 Billion. The page doesn't provide a clear link on how they estimated the valuations, either... Edit: If you click on one of them, then mouse-over the valuation on that page, if offers the following explanation: "To calculate App Worth, we take into account many factors and metrics: - User Estimates - User Activity - International Reach - Revenue Estimates - Sensor Tower Secret Sauce™"

megablast 13y ago
Not sure why this is secret. A formula would be useful, but I guess this is just a fun estimate.
- diziet 13y ago
  Part of the reason for that is that I didn't want people gaming the algorithm. The things it looks at are user numbers, revenue estimates (very good here~) and internationalization when computing the worth.
  - blowski 13y ago
    Some of the valuations raise a bit of an eyebrow - e.g. BatteryHD valued at nearly $41M. * In the case of apps that are native versions of web services (e.g. Flickr, Twitter) it's impossible to separate the value of the app from the service, so is your valuation of the whole service? * How do you factor in possible future growth, based on potential size of market, current market saturation, and possible revenue streams? It seems like they would be very difficult to automate. So the valuation of the app-maker is probably more interesting than the value of the app itself. A company that has made one very successful app is more likely to make other successful apps, because of branding and experience.
scholia 13y ago
Instagram was presumably worth $1 billion when Facebook bought it 16 months ago. That doesn't tell you what it would be worth today.

soup10 13y ago

Dunno how accurate this is for the biggest and free apps, but I own a medium size paid app and it seems reasonable. The search/keyword graphs they have are interesting too, haven't seen that data before.

kranner 13y ago

Apparently there's a lot more money in Bible apps than I had imagined. If this ordering is close to being accurate, it's a wonderful resource to reflect on to understand what consumers truly care about.

diziet 13y ago
We've also got an ordering based on number of ratings: https://sensortower.com/ios/leaderboard/estimated-app-worth/all-categories https://sensortower.com/ios/leaderboard/estimated-app-worth/... With the Bible app, I was surprised too when it showed up -- but the app has over 30 million users. It's quite bigger than a lot of funded social networks, it is just a matter of monetizing or engaging the users properly. Religion is a big market!
- kranner 13y ago
  Thanks for this resource!

Gurrewe 13y ago

They seem to have mixed up Sweden with Slovakia. Funny.

irollboozers 13y ago

Looks great! One curious thing I'd be interested to see is the sum of the values of all the apps and how it compares with Apple's estimates.

k-mcgrady 13y ago

Not exactly sure how the valuations are calculated but they don't seem too accurate. I looked at my own apps and some that should have appeared didn't, others that shouldn't have appeared did.

bruceboughton 13y ago

So: - Pandora's app is worth $1.7bn - Google's Search app is only worth $0.7bn Riiiiight...

netcan 13y ago
If pandora didn't have the pandora app, it would be out of business. If google didn't have the google search app.. it would probably not be noticeable on its balance sheets.
- bruceboughton 13y ago
  Pandora existed before it had an app so I'm not sure it would be out of business. A significant proportion of its business may go through the app but that's not the same thing. Google is a vastly bigger scale business though so I'm surprised such a small percentage of its profit is attributed to the app. Especially as they are pushing Google Now. In general, though, I'm not sure the attribution of profits to apps is consistent for multi-platform businesses.

codeka 13y ago

I wouldn't put any games in the top ten (or even top 50). I don't see Candy Crush or Clash of Clans being around six months from now, so I don't see how it could be worth anywhere near $1.36B...

diziet 13y ago
Well, given that Clash of Clans has been around and in the top 3~ grossing consistently for the last year, and Candy Crush has been at #1 for a year and a half, and neither show any substantial signs of slowing down and are improving on game mechanics and monetization strategies I would take your wager. These apps are very international and in the App Store terms, a year is quite a long time.
- scholia 13y ago
  I'm with you on Candy Crush (my family has numerous addicts) but I'm not sure it's worth so much more than Angry Birds. Angry Birds also makes money offline (soft toys etc) but presumably that's not covered in your table....

netcan 13y ago

Accuracy aside, this is interesting. The thing that always sands out to me in any "thing - value" list always how little correlation there is between hard/complicated things and value. Whatsapp vs Viber. Kindle vs Bible. Waze/Google maps vs Urban Spoon/Yelp. Creating an awesome bible app seems incredibly doable.

diziet 13y ago
Yep, creating an awesome Bible app is doable. Getting people to download and use it, that's the hard part!

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

cpursley 13y ago

I'm a valuer/appraiser by trade and would be interested to know how you're making calculations. Direct cap or irr (DCF)? A dollar amount multiplied per estimated user?

stevenp 13y ago

I will happily sell my apps for the price listed. Who should I contact for my check? :)