6 ms·

Will this undo the horrible decade we've had since 9/11 ?

by Yuioup 13y ago

mythealias 13y ago
probably. last time it flipped was in 2001 [1]. [1] http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast15feb_1/ http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/a...
- ccozan 13y ago
  Actually, this looks more interesting than at first look. The previous flip was around '89, which saw the Eastern Europe wave of 'change'. Then 9/11. Now we have the 'Arab Spring'. But, correlation is not causation so all remains just pure coincidences.
  - panacea 13y ago
    Not that I think that geopolitical happenstance is affected by solar magnetism, but I'm getting a bit fed up with the 'correlation is not causation' police. No it's not, but nor is it a blanket reason not to investigate apparent parallels. Just because the 'correlation = causation' is used to dis-infrom through findings that are bolstered by correlations, doesn't mean there's no reason to try and explore a reasonable case as to why the correlation reflects actual causation. Correlation can infer causation in many instances.
    - mkartic 13y ago
      But the GP's mention of the 'correlation is not causation' is completely warranted in this case. He doesn't think 'geopolitical happenstance is affected by solar magnetism' either. And that's exactly what is said. Though there seems to be a correlation, politics is not actually affected by the phenomenon.
      - crpatino 13y ago
        > politics is not actually affected by the phenomenon. What makes you think it does not? It has been now shown that weather patterns in Europe during the middle ages are correlated with both warfare[1] and witch hunts [2]. Theories that explain these phenomena have been proposed. The thing is, any astrologer during that period would get the correlation part right but the causal mechanism completely wrong. Move forward 500 years and believers in Scientism (not Science) will take the mistaken causal mechanism, confirm that it does not match with their a priori belief system, and wave off the real correlation as "fudge" or "coincidence". Sometimes the lack of an explanation lies in the observer, for all/most of the obvious stuff has already been discovered. Lazy evaluation will take you a long way in terms of keeping an open mind. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age [2] http://home.uchicago.edu/eoster/witchec.pdf http://home.uchicago.edu/eoster/witchec.pdf
        moheeb 13y ago
        Correlation is not causation.
        mkartic 13y ago
        > What makes you think it does not? Its mostly my own ignorance I am admitting. :) I believe the true spirit of the 'Causation is not correlation' phrase is that if the mechanism isn't obvious, don't jump to the conclusion. As your link points out, correlation is a good reason to carry further investigation.
    - cliffu 13y ago
      I thought it was just a warning, like we should remember to also make hypotheses about phenomenon X that causes both the Sun's magnetic field to flip and Arab Spring events.
    - bashinator 13y ago
      "Causation creates correlation."
  - wisty 13y ago
    Anecdote is not correlation. Also, it's worth noting that the US has a quasi-stable cycle of invading other countries for about a decade, then a roughly decade long policy of non-interventionism while they try to forget what a horrible quagmire they got themselves into the last decade.
  - bdz 13y ago
    Nice conspiracy theory! Earlier one: 1979 USSR Invades Afghanistan, Margaret Thatcher elected as the Prime minister in UK, Ruhollah Khomeini returns to Tehran
andrewingram 13y ago
Yes, it's well-documented that the polarity of the Sun's magnetic field is highly correlated with the prevalence of evil in the world.
- voodoo123 13y ago
  If we stop doing evil, important solar processes will stop, leading to the collapse of the sun.
  - Graham24 13y ago
    save it for the judge.
VLM 13y ago
For ham radio HF propagation above 20 meters? Well, not really. Enjoy 10M while you can... I hope the next cycle in about a decade has better flux numbers. Es on 6M is fun, but I want some months long round-the-world F2 propagation modes. (Seriously its interesting the article didn't mention how unusually weak the latest cycle has been. Usually the peak is much higher leading to happier ham radio operators. So the "news" or "journalism" is the unusual weakness of this cycle, but instead we get human interest story...) Aside from the stereotypical "this individual cycle is weak" most recent solar coverage has contemplated Maunder Minimum effect and stuff like that. The wiki article is pretty good, summary is every time a cycle is wimpy everyone temporarily jumps on the bandwagon that its a semi-permanent long term decline etc etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum In these ways, its a somewhat atypical solar news story. Which is cool.
- Yuioup 13y ago
  What an awesome answer to my facetious question :-) I know nothing about ham radios or frequencies but it sounds interesting nonetheless.
  - xradionut 13y ago
    Amateur radio can be rewarding. You can build radios/antennas, explore physics, yak with folks around the world without internet/telecom companies or do public service. Current nifty ham technology is SDR, (Software Defined Radio).
    - 205guy 13y ago
      Just because you mentioned the internet and "everything must be connected with Snowden," I wonder if the NSA is tapping all short-wave comms? You'd think yes, because that is what spooks on all sides used for encoded messages. But then again, with the focus on internet, maybe the SW-recorder got neglected in a back-room (unlikely, probably just another pipe into that Utah data center).
      - 13y ago
anigbrowl 13y ago
Let's hope it merely correlates with a nicer one. I liked the 90s a lot better than the last decade in many respects.

Will this undo the horrible decade we've had since 9/11 ?

by Yuioup 13y ago

Will this undo the horrible decade we've had since 9/11 ?

probably. last time it flipped was in 2001 [1]. [1] http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast15feb_1/ http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/a...

ccozan 13y ago
Actually, this looks more interesting than at first look. The previous flip was around '89, which saw the Eastern Europe wave of 'change'. Then 9/11. Now we have the 'Arab Spring'. But, correlation is not causation so all remains just pure coincidences.
- panacea 13y ago
  Not that I think that geopolitical happenstance is affected by solar magnetism, but I'm getting a bit fed up with the 'correlation is not causation' police. No it's not, but nor is it a blanket reason not to investigate apparent parallels. Just because the 'correlation = causation' is used to dis-infrom through findings that are bolstered by correlations, doesn't mean there's no reason to try and explore a reasonable case as to why the correlation reflects actual causation. Correlation can infer causation in many instances.
  - mkartic 13y ago
    But the GP's mention of the 'correlation is not causation' is completely warranted in this case. He doesn't think 'geopolitical happenstance is affected by solar magnetism' either. And that's exactly what is said. Though there seems to be a correlation, politics is not actually affected by the phenomenon.
    - crpatino 13y ago
      > politics is not actually affected by the phenomenon. What makes you think it does not? It has been now shown that weather patterns in Europe during the middle ages are correlated with both warfare[1] and witch hunts [2]. Theories that explain these phenomena have been proposed. The thing is, any astrologer during that period would get the correlation part right but the causal mechanism completely wrong. Move forward 500 years and believers in Scientism (not Science) will take the mistaken causal mechanism, confirm that it does not match with their a priori belief system, and wave off the real correlation as "fudge" or "coincidence". Sometimes the lack of an explanation lies in the observer, for all/most of the obvious stuff has already been discovered. Lazy evaluation will take you a long way in terms of keeping an open mind. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age [2] http://home.uchicago.edu/eoster/witchec.pdf http://home.uchicago.edu/eoster/witchec.pdf
      - moheeb 13y ago
        Correlation is not causation.
      - mkartic 13y ago
        > What makes you think it does not? Its mostly my own ignorance I am admitting. :) I believe the true spirit of the 'Causation is not correlation' phrase is that if the mechanism isn't obvious, don't jump to the conclusion. As your link points out, correlation is a good reason to carry further investigation.
  - cliffu 13y ago
    I thought it was just a warning, like we should remember to also make hypotheses about phenomenon X that causes both the Sun's magnetic field to flip and Arab Spring events.
  - bashinator 13y ago
    "Causation creates correlation."
- wisty 13y ago
  Anecdote is not correlation. Also, it's worth noting that the US has a quasi-stable cycle of invading other countries for about a decade, then a roughly decade long policy of non-interventionism while they try to forget what a horrible quagmire they got themselves into the last decade.
- bdz 13y ago
  Nice conspiracy theory! Earlier one: 1979 USSR Invades Afghanistan, Margaret Thatcher elected as the Prime minister in UK, Ruhollah Khomeini returns to Tehran

andrewingram 13y ago

Yes, it's well-documented that the polarity of the Sun's magnetic field is highly correlated with the prevalence of evil in the world.

voodoo123 13y ago
If we stop doing evil, important solar processes will stop, leading to the collapse of the sun.
- Graham24 13y ago
  save it for the judge.

VLM 13y ago

For ham radio HF propagation above 20 meters? Well, not really. Enjoy 10M while you can... I hope the next cycle in about a decade has better flux numbers. Es on 6M is fun, but I want some months long round-the-world F2 propagation modes. (Seriously its interesting the article didn't mention how unusually weak the latest cycle has been. Usually the peak is much higher leading to happier ham radio operators. So the "news" or "journalism" is the unusual weakness of this cycle, but instead we get human interest story...) Aside from the stereotypical "this individual cycle is weak" most recent solar coverage has contemplated Maunder Minimum effect and stuff like that. The wiki article is pretty good, summary is every time a cycle is wimpy everyone temporarily jumps on the bandwagon that its a semi-permanent long term decline etc etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum In these ways, its a somewhat atypical solar news story. Which is cool.

Yuioup 13y ago
What an awesome answer to my facetious question :-) I know nothing about ham radios or frequencies but it sounds interesting nonetheless.
- xradionut 13y ago
  Amateur radio can be rewarding. You can build radios/antennas, explore physics, yak with folks around the world without internet/telecom companies or do public service. Current nifty ham technology is SDR, (Software Defined Radio).
  - 205guy 13y ago
    Just because you mentioned the internet and "everything must be connected with Snowden," I wonder if the NSA is tapping all short-wave comms? You'd think yes, because that is what spooks on all sides used for encoded messages. But then again, with the focus on internet, maybe the SW-recorder got neglected in a back-room (unlikely, probably just another pipe into that Utah data center).
    - 13y ago

anigbrowl 13y ago

Let's hope it merely correlates with a nicer one. I liked the 90s a lot better than the last decade in many respects.