Okay that makes a lot of sense. The way LessWrong uses the word "surprise" there is a little bit different than how it's used in day-to-day language, where it a

Okay that makes a lot of sense. The way LessWrong uses the word "surprise" there is a little bit different than how it's used in day-to-day language, where it also carries a (subtle) value judgement, as opposed to being exclusively rational signal that ones model needs updating. Hence my confusion. now I doubt we'll get an expert with domain knowledge to jump in after five days though :)