3 ms·

If Moore's law were to continue to hold, this would mean the same simulation could operate in real-time on an 83K processor cluster in approximately 25 years or

by beloch 13y ago

If Moore's law were to continue to hold, this would mean the same simulation could operate in real-time on an 83K processor cluster in approximately 25 years or on one processor in about 50 years. Of course, this simulation is 1% of the neurons that a human brain has, and I don't know if scaling up to a full-brain would be linear (This probably depends on the average length of axons in the brain.). This completely unrealistic estimate also assumes no improvements in algorithms, etc.. Perhaps a more interesting question is whether or not the brain can really be simulated by a classical computer at all. If quantum mechanics plays a role in the function of the brain we will need a quantum computer to do the job. A classical simulation of a quantum brain would be a very odd beast indeed! It might exhibit behavior that seems like intelligence but somehow falls short.

wikiburner 13y ago
Roger Penrose has theorized the brain relies on quantum effects, but it seems to have been as discredited as something currently unfalsifiable can be discredited. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mind http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mind
- thelamest 13y ago
  It's not like there is a conspiracy against Penrose, there is just a prevailing feeling (which I for one subscribe to) that: "computation via quantum mechanical processes is irrelevant to explaining how brains produce thought, contrary to the ongoing speculations of many theorists. First, quantum effects do not have the temporal properties required for neural information processing. Second, there are substantial physical obstacles to any organic instantiation of quantum computation. Third, there is no psychological evidence that such mental phenomena as consciousness and mathematical thinking require explanation via quantum theory. We conclude that understanding brain function is unlikely to require quantum computation or similar mechanisms." (http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~pthagard/Articles/quantum.pdf http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~pthagard/Articles/quantum.pdf)
  - wikiburner 13y ago
    Oh, yeah. Totally agree, I must have worded it poorly. I'm just saying all theories are technically "speculative" until we can replicate cognition, but his quantum theories sound unnecessary and hand-wavey, akin to "The Soul".
ck2 13y ago
Or by 2020 they make an asic chip that emulates a brain cell and it computes 10x faster than realtime. Massive array at 8nm and there's your positronic brain.
- MacsHeadroom 13y ago
  Stanford and other groups have been working on "brain asics" for a few years now. The eventually success of these chip-sets will probably dramatically increase our ability to simulate brain processes more efficiently in the near future. See http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html
luikore 13y ago
It's Penrose's view that a brain is quantum, but this paper http://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/9907009v2.pdf http://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/9907009v2.pdf shows human brain is more classical than quantum. Maybe the simulation algorithm is the thing that needs improvement. Some day one finds a way to reduce the complexity an order of magnitude, then the era of human brain is over.
- Retric 13y ago
  ~10 billion nerves * 10,000 connections per nerve * 100HZ * ~ 100 neurotransmitters = a complex beast to simulate even if you could get away with 1 calculation per connection per transmitter and ignore things like propagation delays and fatigue.
  - MacsHeadroom 13y ago
    Why calculate anything when we can make most of it happen in dedicated hardware? http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html
4ad 13y ago
> If quantum mechanics plays a role in the function of the brain we will need a quantum computer to do the job. Not at all. A classical computer can accurately simulate a quantum computer, albeit slowly.

by beloch 13y ago

wikiburner 13y ago

Roger Penrose has theorized the brain relies on quantum effects, but it seems to have been as discredited as something currently unfalsifiable can be discredited. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mind http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_mind

thelamest 13y ago
It's not like there is a conspiracy against Penrose, there is just a prevailing feeling (which I for one subscribe to) that: "computation via quantum mechanical processes is irrelevant to explaining how brains produce thought, contrary to the ongoing speculations of many theorists. First, quantum effects do not have the temporal properties required for neural information processing. Second, there are substantial physical obstacles to any organic instantiation of quantum computation. Third, there is no psychological evidence that such mental phenomena as consciousness and mathematical thinking require explanation via quantum theory. We conclude that understanding brain function is unlikely to require quantum computation or similar mechanisms." (http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~pthagard/Articles/quantum.pdf http://watarts.uwaterloo.ca/~pthagard/Articles/quantum.pdf)
- wikiburner 13y ago
  Oh, yeah. Totally agree, I must have worded it poorly. I'm just saying all theories are technically "speculative" until we can replicate cognition, but his quantum theories sound unnecessary and hand-wavey, akin to "The Soul".

ck2 13y ago

Or by 2020 they make an asic chip that emulates a brain cell and it computes 10x faster than realtime. Massive array at 8nm and there's your positronic brain.

MacsHeadroom 13y ago
Stanford and other groups have been working on "brain asics" for a few years now. The eventually success of these chip-sets will probably dramatically increase our ability to simulate brain processes more efficiently in the near future. See http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html

luikore 13y ago

It's Penrose's view that a brain is quantum, but this paper http://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/9907009v2.pdf http://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/9907009v2.pdf shows human brain is more classical than quantum. Maybe the simulation algorithm is the thing that needs improvement. Some day one finds a way to reduce the complexity an order of magnitude, then the era of human brain is over.

Retric 13y ago
~10 billion nerves * 10,000 connections per nerve * 100HZ * ~ 100 neurotransmitters = a complex beast to simulate even if you could get away with 1 calculation per connection per transmitter and ignore things like propagation delays and fatigue.
- MacsHeadroom 13y ago
  Why calculate anything when we can make most of it happen in dedicated hardware? http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html http://www.stanford.edu/group/brainsinsilicon/about.html

4ad 13y ago

> If quantum mechanics plays a role in the function of the brain we will need a quantum computer to do the job. Not at all. A classical computer can accurately simulate a quantum computer, albeit slowly.