4 ms·

How will Elon pull off a 30k dollar Tesla in 2016? And will the range be more or less than the current Model S? (~250 miles)

by LAMike 13y ago

lelandbatey 13y ago
That is the billion dollar question, and it's what Elon is paying his engineers to answer. Because of that, I don't think we'll see an answer till 2016.
scragg 13y ago
The base will likely be around ~35k after 7500k tax credit which I think is doable. I would guess it will be have 40 & 60 kwh offerings and a bit smaller than the S. The 40 should easily pull off 150 miles rated range. I have a 60kwh software reduced to 40. I get a rated range of 144 which has been plenty for my use.
cheald 13y ago
I don't know about new, but I get the sense from Tesla's buyback-and-upgrade program that they're looking to saturate the used car market with lower-cost Teslas to provide options more attractive to your typical car buyer. If I could get a 2 year old Tesla for the cost of a functionally equivalent new car, I'd be very interested.
- Too 13y ago
  2 year old lithium batteries? Buying new batteries would be as expensive as the car at that age.
  - johnward 13y ago
    Are you suggesting the batteries won't last much more than 2 years?
    - Too 13y ago
      Assumption based on experience from laptops, phones and other devices with LiPo/LiOn/Lixxx. Maybe teslas batteries are better? In 2 years we will find out...
      - akgerber 13y ago
        Cars generally cycle the batteries far more gently, as their weight and size constraints are far less tight. 10-year-old Priuses have NiMH batteries chugging along just fine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Battery_life_cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Battery_life_cycle), but most 10-year-old gadgets are in pretty bad shape battery-wise.
        mistercow 13y ago
        Hybrid vehicles have a significant advantage over PEVs when it comes to battery life, which is that they don't need to utilize the full capacity of their batteries. The control system on a Prius tries to keep its main battery at an average 60% charge, which significantly lengthens its life. That's not such a big deal when you can recharge the battery at any time off of the gas engine. Depending on heat, a fully charged Li+ battery will lose between 15-30% of its capacity per year. If you keep its charge between 40-60%, it will lose only around 4-10% per year. Tesla estimates that after 5 years, their battery packs will still have 70% of their original capacity, which would seem to indicate that this is indeed what they're doing (70%^(1/5) = 93%, or 7% loss per year). That sucks for a car which is entirely powered by its battery, since it means that a Tesla could, at a long-term cost to total capacity, potentially have at least twice the range its control system will allow. It seems like that would be a decent feature to give for people making occasional long trips.
      - bathat 13y ago
        Why would you base your assumption on experience with laptops when you have access (through the magic of the Internet) to perfectly good data about the Tesla Roadster? They've been on the road for over four years now. Here's the third link from a Google search for "tesla roadster battery degradation" (the first one not written by a "green car" website). http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/tesla-low-balls-roadster-battery-life-model-s-to-follow.html/?a=viewall http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/tesla-low-balls-roadster-... It says that the batteries have, on average, over 80 percent capacity remaining after 100,000 miles. 80% of the original 265 mile EPA range is still well over 210 miles of range.
Shivetya 13y ago
the bigger question, does he have the time to wait to 2016? The established brands are moving already, he could be entering a contested market, his current market is uncontested. First, I doubt that without incentives that there will be a 3 in first digit and second I am very doubtful he can provide the same level of service at that price point.

How will Elon pull off a 30k dollar Tesla in 2016? And will the range be more or less than the current Model S? (~250 miles)

by LAMike 13y ago

How will Elon pull off a 30k dollar Tesla in 2016? And will the range be more or less than the current Model S? (~250 miles)

lelandbatey 13y ago

That is the billion dollar question, and it's what Elon is paying his engineers to answer. Because of that, I don't think we'll see an answer till 2016.

scragg 13y ago

The base will likely be around ~35k after 7500k tax credit which I think is doable. I would guess it will be have 40 & 60 kwh offerings and a bit smaller than the S. The 40 should easily pull off 150 miles rated range. I have a 60kwh software reduced to 40. I get a rated range of 144 which has been plenty for my use.

cheald 13y ago

I don't know about new, but I get the sense from Tesla's buyback-and-upgrade program that they're looking to saturate the used car market with lower-cost Teslas to provide options more attractive to your typical car buyer. If I could get a 2 year old Tesla for the cost of a functionally equivalent new car, I'd be very interested.

Too 13y ago
2 year old lithium batteries? Buying new batteries would be as expensive as the car at that age.
- johnward 13y ago
  Are you suggesting the batteries won't last much more than 2 years?
  - Too 13y ago
    Assumption based on experience from laptops, phones and other devices with LiPo/LiOn/Lixxx. Maybe teslas batteries are better? In 2 years we will find out...
    - akgerber 13y ago
      Cars generally cycle the batteries far more gently, as their weight and size constraints are far less tight. 10-year-old Priuses have NiMH batteries chugging along just fine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Battery_life_cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Battery_life_cycle), but most 10-year-old gadgets are in pretty bad shape battery-wise.
      - mistercow 13y ago
        Hybrid vehicles have a significant advantage over PEVs when it comes to battery life, which is that they don't need to utilize the full capacity of their batteries. The control system on a Prius tries to keep its main battery at an average 60% charge, which significantly lengthens its life. That's not such a big deal when you can recharge the battery at any time off of the gas engine. Depending on heat, a fully charged Li+ battery will lose between 15-30% of its capacity per year. If you keep its charge between 40-60%, it will lose only around 4-10% per year. Tesla estimates that after 5 years, their battery packs will still have 70% of their original capacity, which would seem to indicate that this is indeed what they're doing (70%^(1/5) = 93%, or 7% loss per year). That sucks for a car which is entirely powered by its battery, since it means that a Tesla could, at a long-term cost to total capacity, potentially have at least twice the range its control system will allow. It seems like that would be a decent feature to give for people making occasional long trips.
    - bathat 13y ago
      Why would you base your assumption on experience with laptops when you have access (through the magic of the Internet) to perfectly good data about the Tesla Roadster? They've been on the road for over four years now. Here's the third link from a Google search for "tesla roadster battery degradation" (the first one not written by a "green car" website). http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/tesla-low-balls-roadster-battery-life-model-s-to-follow.html/?a=viewall http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/tesla-low-balls-roadster-... It says that the batteries have, on average, over 80 percent capacity remaining after 100,000 miles. 80% of the original 265 mile EPA range is still well over 210 miles of range.

Shivetya 13y ago

the bigger question, does he have the time to wait to 2016? The established brands are moving already, he could be entering a contested market, his current market is uncontested. First, I doubt that without incentives that there will be a 3 in first digit and second I am very doubtful he can provide the same level of service at that price point.