Only if you assume that there won't be any other advances in technology that will speed up simulating a brain (such as more specialized processors). Look at gen

Only if you assume that there won't be any other advances in technology that will speed up simulating a brain (such as more specialized processors). Look at genetic sequencing. It was really hard to get from 0% to 1% of sequenced human DNA. But sequencing the remaining percent happened much faster, and nowadays the cost for is exponentially decreasing (which means that soon you will be able to buy your sequencing kit at your local supermarket for a few dollars). I would be very surprised if it took us another 26.6 years to simulate a brain in real-time. Maybe half of that time. And a few years later you will be able to cheaply backup your own brain in the cloud in case you have an accident.