Let P(F|D) = .001 (assuming 1 in 1000 chance foul play was involved given a death of a speaker at a conference) P(F|D) = P(D|F)P(F)/P(D) = 1 0.00002 /

Let P(F|D) = .001 (assuming 1 in 1000 chance foul play was involved given a death of a speaker at a conference) P(F|D) = P(D|F)P(F)/P(D) = 1 0.00002 / 0.0017 = 0.018 (chance of foul play for a single speech given the speaker died 1 month before) Is this a typo? I don't understand how you're finding two different values for P(F|D).