3 ms·

I hear ya, but will a credible opponent arise in that district? no democrat will run against her given her clout. is any republican electable in sf?

smsm42 13y ago
Don't hold your breath. SF is one of the liberal strongholds. Reps probably won't even bother to go there - unless of course they see a real chance (see Scott Brown) but they wouldn't. Which means Pelosi is free to do anything she wants, as her own party would never restrain her (especially at the time she promotes the agenda of the President from her own party) and Reps have no real political power to oust her. Be thankful to the people of California for this gift that keeps on giving.
refurb 13y ago
Last voter data I saw has registered Republican's in the low teens as a percentage of registered voters. The only way I could see a Republican winning SF is if he/she were a fiscal conservative/social libertarian.
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  > Last voter data I saw has registered Republican's in the low teens as a percentage of registered voters. Not that high; per current registration data [1], 37,719 registered Republicans of 437,529 total registered voters, so Republicans are 8.62%. Low teens is about what the typical Republican running in San Francisco gets on election day > The only way I could see a Republican winning SF is if he/she were a fiscal conservative/social libertarian. If the political mood in San Francisco was running in a way that social libertarian positions were strong enough that they'd get enough liberal voters to hold their breath and vote for a fiscal conservative, then a left-libertarian would probably end up as the Democratic candidate in the general election, and win. (Although the main effect, given the way California's "open primary" works, would likely be a contested primary among Democrats resulting in the two candidates that make it to the general election both being Democrats.) I suppose, though, if you the the surge of social libertarianism happens after the primary but before the general election, and the Democratic candidate isn't a social libertarian, you might end up with a chance for the Republican. But that's a pretty freakish scenario. [1] http://www.sfelections.org/tools/election_data/ http://www.sfelections.org/tools/election_data/
  - dllthomas 13y ago
    Also note that's "the typical (republican running in San Francisco)", as distinct from "(the typical republican) running in San Francisco", who would likely get even fewer votes.
dnskw 13y ago
She wouldn't even debate the republican in 2010... http://youtu.be/D0JrUhHv8kI http://youtu.be/D0JrUhHv8kI http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/15/pelosi_wont_debate_opponent_because_time_is_money.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/15/pelosi_won...

smsm42 13y ago

Don't hold your breath. SF is one of the liberal strongholds. Reps probably won't even bother to go there - unless of course they see a real chance (see Scott Brown) but they wouldn't. Which means Pelosi is free to do anything she wants, as her own party would never restrain her (especially at the time she promotes the agenda of the President from her own party) and Reps have no real political power to oust her. Be thankful to the people of California for this gift that keeps on giving.

refurb 13y ago

Last voter data I saw has registered Republican's in the low teens as a percentage of registered voters. The only way I could see a Republican winning SF is if he/she were a fiscal conservative/social libertarian.

dragonwriter 13y ago
> Last voter data I saw has registered Republican's in the low teens as a percentage of registered voters. Not that high; per current registration data [1], 37,719 registered Republicans of 437,529 total registered voters, so Republicans are 8.62%. Low teens is about what the typical Republican running in San Francisco gets on election day > The only way I could see a Republican winning SF is if he/she were a fiscal conservative/social libertarian. If the political mood in San Francisco was running in a way that social libertarian positions were strong enough that they'd get enough liberal voters to hold their breath and vote for a fiscal conservative, then a left-libertarian would probably end up as the Democratic candidate in the general election, and win. (Although the main effect, given the way California's "open primary" works, would likely be a contested primary among Democrats resulting in the two candidates that make it to the general election both being Democrats.) I suppose, though, if you the the surge of social libertarianism happens after the primary but before the general election, and the Democratic candidate isn't a social libertarian, you might end up with a chance for the Republican. But that's a pretty freakish scenario. [1] http://www.sfelections.org/tools/election_data/ http://www.sfelections.org/tools/election_data/
- dllthomas 13y ago
  Also note that's "the typical (republican running in San Francisco)", as distinct from "(the typical republican) running in San Francisco", who would likely get even fewer votes.

dnskw 13y ago

She wouldn't even debate the republican in 2010... http://youtu.be/D0JrUhHv8kI http://youtu.be/D0JrUhHv8kI http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/15/pelosi_wont_debate_opponent_because_time_is_money.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/10/15/pelosi_won...