3 ms·

War is politics by other means. When a war ends without the politics being settled, the seed of conflict remains. However, most either people lack this longer

War is politics by other means. When a war ends without the politics being settled, the seed of conflict remains. However, most either people lack this longer term vision and falsely perceive a physical wins as an ultimate "victory", or don't care because they won't be around then. "This isn't a peace, it's a twenty year truce!" - Ferdinand Foch, regarding the Treaty of Versailles As an aside, the U.S's failure to predict the Collapse of the USSR was probably their greatest intelligence failure, with the consequence being Russia beginning a hurtling into the Abyss, arrested by Putin, and a partial reversal of the Democratic trend of Gorbachev. I don't think Demonizing Putin is really going to be helpful. Ignorance of the historical circumstances of Russia brought him in power is analogous to the belief that a Utopian Democracy could simply be imposed on Iraq from above. Take a Spherical Cow in a Vacuum, add some Democracy...

antitrust 13y ago
I enjoyed reading your reply. I like the "spherical cow" metaphor. Foch was proven right. It must have been maddening for him to know the truth of the situation, but be over-ruled by popular sentiment toward ending a disastrous and suicidal war. This makes me want to reconsider all of my own knowledge of course, because as your examples illustrate, it's possible that there is something worse than being wrong, and it is to not notice something important.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
spiritplumber 13y ago
The various three letter agencies had no interest in correctly predicting the USSR's collapse as it'd get them defunded. I'm not saying that there was a conspiracy to not forewarn the various US administrations, I'm just saying that all the analysts slightl skewed things the other way, and the effect accumulated.
- antitrust 13y ago
  > The various three letter agencies had no interest in correctly predicting the USSR's collapse as it'd get them defunded. You make a really good point here. It's not that there's a conspiracy, or they censored themselves. There's simply zero reward in pursuing any path that leads to the conclusion that one's job is obsolete or soon will be. With a minor caveat, I guess. Those who can figure it out without much effort will then be those who seek new employment before it happens. It's hard to predict these things however.

antitrust 13y ago

I enjoyed reading your reply. I like the "spherical cow" metaphor. Foch was proven right. It must have been maddening for him to know the truth of the situation, but be over-ruled by popular sentiment toward ending a disastrous and suicidal war. This makes me want to reconsider all of my own knowledge of course, because as your examples illustrate, it's possible that there is something worse than being wrong, and it is to not notice something important.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]

spiritplumber 13y ago

The various three letter agencies had no interest in correctly predicting the USSR's collapse as it'd get them defunded. I'm not saying that there was a conspiracy to not forewarn the various US administrations, I'm just saying that all the analysts slightl skewed things the other way, and the effect accumulated.

antitrust 13y ago
> The various three letter agencies had no interest in correctly predicting the USSR's collapse as it'd get them defunded. You make a really good point here. It's not that there's a conspiracy, or they censored themselves. There's simply zero reward in pursuing any path that leads to the conclusion that one's job is obsolete or soon will be. With a minor caveat, I guess. Those who can figure it out without much effort will then be those who seek new employment before it happens. It's hard to predict these things however.