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This is a fallacy that is levied every generation, that automation and technological advances will lead to mass unemployment in the future. It completely ignore

This is a fallacy that is levied every generation, that automation and technological advances will lead to mass unemployment in the future. It completely ignores the fact that new types of jobs are created all the time and that there's always something that will require expertise and hard work. Instead of assembling widgets in a factory it will be working with data and information.

PeterisP 13y ago
Please take note that currently these new types of mass jobs are not being created; there is already observable mass structural unemployment, and there are no new major economy sectors that need a lot of people. In recent years the jobs "working with data and information", i.e., white collar middle-class clerical jobs are exactly those shrinking because of automation, not growing; they were growing 20 years ago but not in 2010s. Where is the next wave? Historically new sectors opened up three times, but it's not a natural law that requires that to happen once more. There are some new jobs created in software engineering and product design, however, they are an order of magnitude less than the shrinking areas. Unlike the earlier shifts towards artisanal, industrial and later service jobs which could employ a majority of population, the new industries need relatively tiny numbers of employees - such as the (classic, exaggerated) example of 140.000 employed by Kodak vs 11 by Instagram. The "new new" jobs are scalable - i.e., you need a few of the best specialists that can cover some need X for a billion people, instead of earlier nonscalable jobs where there was a need also for lots of average and below-average employees to fulfill the quantity of work. The whole modern "information age" that we enjoy needed only 3-5 million engineers to create it, that's 0.1% of the global working population. Even the ever-shrinking farming currently needs more people than the Silicon Valley 'digital economy'.

PeterisP 13y ago

Please take note that currently these new types of mass jobs are not being created; there is already observable mass structural unemployment, and there are no new major economy sectors that need a lot of people. In recent years the jobs "working with data and information", i.e., white collar middle-class clerical jobs are exactly those shrinking because of automation, not growing; they were growing 20 years ago but not in 2010s. Where is the next wave? Historically new sectors opened up three times, but it's not a natural law that requires that to happen once more. There are some new jobs created in software engineering and product design, however, they are an order of magnitude less than the shrinking areas. Unlike the earlier shifts towards artisanal, industrial and later service jobs which could employ a majority of population, the new industries need relatively tiny numbers of employees - such as the (classic, exaggerated) example of 140.000 employed by Kodak vs 11 by Instagram. The "new new" jobs are scalable - i.e., you need a few of the best specialists that can cover some need X for a billion people, instead of earlier nonscalable jobs where there was a need also for lots of average and below-average employees to fulfill the quantity of work. The whole modern "information age" that we enjoy needed only 3-5 million engineers to create it, that's 0.1% of the global working population. Even the ever-shrinking farming currently needs more people than the Silicon Valley 'digital economy'.