4 ms·
Yes, if we had this kind of data for several campaigns, then you could compute a (normalized) <% of goal> vs. <time>, and from that estimate the final <% of goa
by backprojection 13y ago
Yes, if we had this kind of data for several campaigns, then you could compute a (normalized) <% of goal> vs. <time>, and from that estimate the final <% of goal> for this campaign.
The problem with your original calculation, is you're assuming the rate is constant, which it may be, roughly, for day 3 through day 27, however in these campaigns there's always an uptick right before the deadline. Really, it's that uptick that you want to estimate, based on previous campaigns.
I don't think kickstarter or indigogo release this kind of data though, unfortunately.
- calebegg 13y agoThere's a graph in this blog post showing the phenomenon you describe: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/shortening-the-maximum-project-length http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/shortening-the-maximum-proje...
- deleted 13y ago[deleted]
- velodrome 13y agoYour right, I did assume the rate would be constant going forward. However, I assumed that the rate of change (RoC) would be the highest now than later. This is the data from the largest kickstarter "Pebble: E-Paper Watch for iPhone and Android": http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-watch-for-iphone-and-android/#chart-exp-projection http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-wa... If you notice, the earliest part of the campaign has nearly the highest RoC. Towards the middle, it kind of flattens out. And, as you mentioned, towards the end (the uptick) the RoC resembles that of the beginning of the campaign. If everything remained constant for the next 27 days, that "uptick" would have to be >$10 million dollars on that last 3 days. Still, they will beat the largest kickstarter campaign ($10 million).