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You do realize that this makes every statistician cringe? Your sample size for calculation is too small to base any kind of reliable projections on it making th

You do realize that this makes every statistician cringe? Your sample size for calculation is too small to base any kind of reliable projections on it making this a pure guess.

AnIrishDuck 13y ago
By my calculations from this first month, we can reasonably conclude that the subject will give birth to nine babies in eight months.
velodrome 13y ago
Of course. There is so little data to work with many assumptions. This is why I said it was a quick calculation. If you can do better, please share :P Unfortunately, I just don't have the time. Besides, the only conclusion that can be drawn at this time is that this is going to be a one of the largest kickstarter-style funding efforts ever. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4
- backprojection 13y ago
  Yes, if we had this kind of data for several campaigns, then you could compute a (normalized) <% of goal> vs. <time>, and from that estimate the final <% of goal> for this campaign. The problem with your original calculation, is you're assuming the rate is constant, which it may be, roughly, for day 3 through day 27, however in these campaigns there's always an uptick right before the deadline. Really, it's that uptick that you want to estimate, based on previous campaigns. I don't think kickstarter or indigogo release this kind of data though, unfortunately.
  - calebegg 13y ago
    There's a graph in this blog post showing the phenomenon you describe: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/shortening-the-maximum-project-length http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/shortening-the-maximum-proje...
    - deleted 13y ago
      [deleted]
  - velodrome 13y ago
    Your right, I did assume the rate would be constant going forward. However, I assumed that the rate of change (RoC) would be the highest now than later. This is the data from the largest kickstarter "Pebble: E-Paper Watch for iPhone and Android": http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-watch-for-iphone-and-android/#chart-exp-projection http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-wa... If you notice, the earliest part of the campaign has nearly the highest RoC. Towards the middle, it kind of flattens out. And, as you mentioned, towards the end (the uptick) the RoC resembles that of the beginning of the campaign. If everything remained constant for the next 27 days, that "uptick" would have to be >$10 million dollars on that last 3 days. Still, they will beat the largest kickstarter campaign ($10 million).

You do realize that this makes every statistician cringe? Your sample size for calculation is too small to base any kind of reliable projections on it making this a pure guess.

AnIrishDuck 13y ago

By my calculations from this first month, we can reasonably conclude that the subject will give birth to nine babies in eight months.

velodrome 13y ago

Of course. There is so little data to work with many assumptions. This is why I said it was a quick calculation. If you can do better, please share :P Unfortunately, I just don't have the time. Besides, the only conclusion that can be drawn at this time is that this is going to be a one of the largest kickstarter-style funding efforts ever. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4

backprojection 13y ago
Yes, if we had this kind of data for several campaigns, then you could compute a (normalized) <% of goal> vs. <time>, and from that estimate the final <% of goal> for this campaign. The problem with your original calculation, is you're assuming the rate is constant, which it may be, roughly, for day 3 through day 27, however in these campaigns there's always an uptick right before the deadline. Really, it's that uptick that you want to estimate, based on previous campaigns. I don't think kickstarter or indigogo release this kind of data though, unfortunately.
- calebegg 13y ago
  There's a graph in this blog post showing the phenomenon you describe: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/shortening-the-maximum-project-length http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/shortening-the-maximum-proje...
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
- velodrome 13y ago
  Your right, I did assume the rate would be constant going forward. However, I assumed that the rate of change (RoC) would be the highest now than later. This is the data from the largest kickstarter "Pebble: E-Paper Watch for iPhone and Android": http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-watch-for-iphone-and-android/#chart-exp-projection http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-wa... If you notice, the earliest part of the campaign has nearly the highest RoC. Towards the middle, it kind of flattens out. And, as you mentioned, towards the end (the uptick) the RoC resembles that of the beginning of the campaign. If everything remained constant for the next 27 days, that "uptick" would have to be >$10 million dollars on that last 3 days. Still, they will beat the largest kickstarter campaign ($10 million).