10 ms·

Ubuntu Edge funding level over time

151 points by rcaught 13y ago

movebits 13y ago
added more data; chart starting time; up until 1:30 p.m. today
JDShu 13y ago
I have a similar script running and observed the same thing. Yesterday I thought that they were well on track towards making the goal, but it seems that the one day only deal heavily skewed pledges towards the first day compared to the average crowdfunded project: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-duration http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-durati... Based on the %time vs %backing chart, the second day usually secures around the same amount of funding as the first day. However in the case of the Ubuntu Edge, it received above average percentage backing on the first day, but has already hit the trough.
- twoodfin 13y ago
  The $600 vs. $830 funding levels seem like a really bad move. It gave their most enthusiastic supporters a chance to give them less money, which is the opposite of what you'd typically want. And for the next month, everyone who visits the project will feel like they're getting screwed out of $230 by not having been one of the early funders.
  - seferphier 13y ago
    i feel that 600 is a good deal but 830 is way to steep.
  - JaggedJax 13y ago
    You're right about the first part, but they've removed the $600 level from the page since it's over, so people coming for the first time won't be able to compare it like that. $830 is still steep for a phone though, even a nice one.
    - whyaduck 13y ago
      If they don't do their research they won't be aware that they missed the lower price point. So how large is the set of people who want a Ubuntu powered smart phone for $830, but who don't do a simple search before buying?
  - Robin_Message 13y ago
    Yeah, a $700-800 phone and a $800-1000 limited edition founders pack (phone plus some recognition) would have made more sense and been revenue neutral. I looked at it, was interested but not sure. Now the $600 is sold out, I feel lees likely to buy one, even though that is partly irrational (I should just evaluate whether it is worth $830 to me, not be upset I missed out on the cheaper one).
  - josh2600 13y ago
    Personally, I don't think Ubuntu actually wants the $32M. Remember, Mark specifically says that most manufacturers won't take you seriously unless you order 100,000 units. At $600 per phone, that's only 53k units (the volumes look worse at $830 per phone). They can't actually manufacture the phone as described for $32M. So, this is, IMHO, a publicity stunt intended to get carriers interested in Ubuntu phone, and it probably was quite successful.
    - storborg 13y ago
      $600 per phone is the price, not the manufacturing cost.
      - josh2600 13y ago
        Chances are, with a volume of less than 100k units, and with the Bill of Materials they're generating, I would be surprised if the cost of the phone were under $600. It's possible, but unlikely. I would wager that they can't even buy RAM directly from Samsung without an order over 100k units. So yeah, maybe $600 per phone is high, but maybe not. They're talking about a serious bill of materials, and although they're economizing on the CMOS and the LCD for the screen, I don't think that will reduce the cost much. The sapphire screen and the single-cut shell are both significant cost structures. It's fun to argue about unknowable things, but given that (I assume) neither of us works for Canonical, I think the answer is probably that you're right. It would be hard for that phone to cost $600, but it won't be cheap.
    - sz4kerto 13y ago
      It is, at least that was hinted by an Ubuntu team member, here: http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_canonical_az_ubuntu_edge_telefon_piacra_dobasahoz#comment-1625092 http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_... Rough translation of the first sentence ("Ennek az akciónak elsősorban az a célja, hogy az Ubuntu híre még jobban eljusson az átlagemberekhez."): The aim of this move is to raise awareness about Ubuntu among average users.
    - dwild 13y ago
      Quite successful? They got about 6500 preorders for a phone with better specs than anything on the market currently, for less than most of them. A publicity stunt to get people interested on Ubuntu phone maybe, but I doubt that theses numbers are good for carriers...
  - smacktoward 13y ago
    But since the $600 level was only available for one day, it served as a push to get those enthusiastic supporters to get into the pool right away instead of wavering back and forth for the next month. If your goal for something like this is PR, you want a big first-day number you can give press to try and gin up a second round of stories about the campaign. So it can be worth it to potentially lose a little on those sales if by doing so you can get more of them into that first-day figure.
cs702 13y ago
SUGGESTION: please show the rate at which the total is growing, e.g., in dollars/minute, and compare that to the rate necessary to reach the fundraising goal. Otherwise, it's hard to see whether the total is growing at a sufficiently fast rate just by looking at that chart. For example, as I write this, the campaign must raise an additional $28.5 million over the next 30 days, equal to under $40,000/hour or around $660/minute. So right now it would be helpful to see if the total is growing by at least $660/minute.
- icegreentea 13y ago
  Labelling the x-axis would also be kind of useful. And what does the note in the legend mean? "first day @ 12p.m. curve flatlines after $600 - deal ends"?
  - Aaronneyer 13y ago
    The chart starts at 12pm on the first day, because thats when the author started grabbing information.. If you look on the curve, you can see that at $3.2 million, the curve kind of flat lines, or at least levels out a bit. This is when they ran out of the 5,000 phones they were offering at $600.
    - movebits 13y ago
      chart starts @3:30 p.m. first day
    - gamerDude 13y ago
      Because we only have one day it is hard to tell, but when they hit 3.2 Million it was also Midnight, so less people may have been active. Perhaps after work hours funding will increase in pace again.
  - Stratoscope 13y ago
    There was a $600 perk available for the first 24 hours. It went up to $830 for the same phone after that.
doe88 13y ago
It was really a bad move to have created the $800 level without adding anything to the $600 package. Even adding only a small thing would certainly have improved the funding. Another factor is that in lot of minds $600 is the price point for high ends smartphones, pricing above is really really risked.
- neltnerb 13y ago
  Yeah, this was basically my thinking. I'd love to support a high end phone with an OS not intended to collect every iota of my personal data and use it for advertising. However, while $600 is a price I'd pay to have it now, $600 for the given specifications in a year is too risky. But at the very least they've got some price validation. Seems like reasonably robust data for a highly visible campaign at both $600 and $820 price points that should give at least moderately good data on the price-demand curve.
  - martron 13y ago
    They just announced a new perk, 2 phones for $1400 ($700/phone). I was wondering how they were going to offer future discounts without pissing off those that have already pledged $800. This is a kind of neat approach since you'd probably need a friend to buy-in with you which should also enhance the viral plan. I'm a little surprised this came so quickly on the second day but I guess the earlier it gets to a high value the better it is for visibility. They see the same metrics that we do and can use it as a gauge on variable pricing to maximize the potential buy-in.
- lipanski 13y ago
  35 minutes ago they updated the perk list with the "double edge": two ubuntu edge devices for $1400. Stil a better bargain than one piece at $830. I do think that when you're going for this kind of money on a crowdfunding website you kind of know what you're doing. The update also states that they'll be having plenty of other updates during the next weeks. No matter how it ends, this is going to be a really interesting experiment for the marketing guys at Canonical and for crowdfunding in general.
thezilch 13y ago
So, can we expect the funding to fail? Do we have similar charts for other like fundings? Personally, even the $600 watermark is too high. Perhaps I and my colleagues are not the right market, but either * we've been fooled by prices on Google's Nexus devices * the extra power doesn't justify the cost or isn't necessary for our needs * we might as well get Lenovos -- half our guys have a history of dropping their phones or otherwise damaging their phone At the end of the day, I connect to numerous remote hosts to get work done, which negates the purpose if I just need a shell and terminal multiplex and browser to run on my localhost. I'm not going to want to run my RDB, search DB, KV store, cache store, messaging bus, etc from that phone. The specs are nice, for a phone, but it's not a workstation.
- jmathai 13y ago
  > So, can we expect the funding to fail? I don't think so. This target for this crowdfunding project is an order of magnitude larger than the infamous Pebble watch. I'm not sure we can apply the same rules. On one hand I think it will be even harder to reach the goal. But on the other hand I think the sheer audacity and scope might have some unexpected benefits. Nonetheless, I'd say in the end we'll consider it a successful fundraising campaign. Even if the goal isn't met and the phone never gets created what's happened so far proves that there's an opportunity for Ubuntu to find a niche that's underserved with their vision of convergence.
baran1 13y ago
The podcast to this blog entry http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/05/15/184208123/were-making-t-shirts-lots-and-lots-of-t-shirts http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/05/15/184208123/were-mak... goes through what the funding graph for their kickstarter project looks like. TLDR; level in the middle, spikes at the end.
velodrome 13y ago
I calculated the average rate after current dropoff. The funding will fail and the total will be roughly around $20 million dollars. Still, that is quite a bit of money and at least some sort of validation. They should have kept it at $600 and increased the total needed for the project. Some quick calculations: ($3476017 - $3180762) / 12 hours = $24605 / hour $3180762 + $24605 / hour * (30 days * 24 hours / day) = $20,896,062
- skriticos2 13y ago
  You do realize that this makes every statistician cringe? Your sample size for calculation is too small to base any kind of reliable projections on it making this a pure guess.
  - AnIrishDuck 13y ago
    By my calculations from this first month, we can reasonably conclude that the subject will give birth to nine babies in eight months.
  - velodrome 13y ago
    Of course. There is so little data to work with many assumptions. This is why I said it was a quick calculation. If you can do better, please share :P Unfortunately, I just don't have the time. Besides, the only conclusion that can be drawn at this time is that this is going to be a one of the largest kickstarter-style funding efforts ever. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4
    - backprojection 13y ago
      Yes, if we had this kind of data for several campaigns, then you could compute a (normalized) <% of goal> vs. <time>, and from that estimate the final <% of goal> for this campaign. The problem with your original calculation, is you're assuming the rate is constant, which it may be, roughly, for day 3 through day 27, however in these campaigns there's always an uptick right before the deadline. Really, it's that uptick that you want to estimate, based on previous campaigns. I don't think kickstarter or indigogo release this kind of data though, unfortunately.
pulakm 13y ago
It would be pretty interesting to see what the funding progress chart was for other large crowdfunded projects (Pebble, Double Fine, etc) for comparison. If we assume that the rate of funding will not increase beyond the current rate, the project will not meet the goal. I don't know how valid that assumption is, though -- intuitively it makes sense, but it is possible that other projects have challenged that assumption. Especially possible if they managed to get a further round of press midway through the campaign.
- makepanic 13y ago
  There is a website that shows you stats of kickstarter projects. Double Fine: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/66710809/double-fine-adventure/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/66710809/double-fine-advent... Pebble: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-watch-for-iphone-and-android/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-wa... OUYA: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-vid...
- ne0phyte 13y ago
  Why didn't you google? There's a site that keeps track of kickstarter projects:http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-vid...
  - pulakm 13y ago
    Sorry about that - I tried Googling but was unsuccessful!
- azernik 13y ago
  People have posted a bunch of stats; the stories project starters on Kickstarter have posted tend to indicate that there's a surge of funding when a project is new, and another surge when the deadline is about to run out (people who were procrastinating start to feel time pressure). Not sure if there's a good law for predicting the sizes of these two surges, or how much the addition of new reward levels can add additional bumps in the middle.
pavs 13y ago
Most of you guys are missing the point, this is not your premium device of an existing manufacturer, so its moot to compare prices with nexus 4, s4, or any other premium device. This is similar (but definitely not same) to the idea of supporting tesla by buying their very expensive models when they first came out. Those people who paid premium price for their car, because they were supportive to the idea of Tesla's vision of clean electric cars. Because of these early adopters, tesla today exists as a company and has a product. While Ubuntu Edge is not as revolutionary as Tesla, it has some unique ideas, made by a company that is loved by most of Open Source and Linux community. By buying an comparably expensive device, you are supporting open source platform and giving chance for another serious option besides the present duopoly. Whether you agree with this vision or not is a different story, whether you think one open source option (Android) is enough is another story. But if you are comparing Edge with current mainstream device with price and feature, then this device is clearly not meant for you, but if you are supporting this device with your money because of philosophical reasons, then this device is for you, and you are the type people Ubuntu is asking for support.
- wodenokoto 13y ago
  840 usd for an off-contract high-end smartphone isn't unreasonable. A 64gb iPhone 5 off-contract is more expensive, and that's half the space. So yes, you can compare it to current devices, and it sounds like it is beating them.
  - scholia 13y ago
    Yes, but the iPhone 5 is sold at Apple's rapacious profit margins, and it has a _much_ lower spec than the Edge. Edge has to be relatively expensive because costs are amortized over 40,000 units rather than 40,000,000.
    - stephencanon 13y ago
      > it has a _much_ lower spec than the Edge. A shipping device always beats an imaginary device on specs. It’ll be interesting to compare specs if and when the Edge actually ships. Until then ...
antimora 13y ago
I don't understand why the numbers do not add up to $3,518,954. This is what I've got so far 20×1347+373×830+13×1400=$354,730. Was there a baseline to begin with?
- ximeng 13y ago
  They sold something like 5044 at 600 and then removed it from the page. Also 3 at 10000.
- calebegg 13y ago
  I believe you can donate on indiegogo without selecting a reward.
drcoopster 13y ago
I was close to going for the $600 price point, but ultimately even that is too much (for me) for what is essentially preproduction-quality hardware of dubious utility (to me).
mpg33 13y ago
Whoa, seemed to level right off for some reason.
movebits 13y ago
uptick in funding after posting to hn (was posted at noon) - surely not significant... still... funding rate of time change $3,417,771 0.00170 10:00:01 $3,423,612 0.00170 10:15:01 $3,430,588 0.00203 10:30:02 $3,443,738 0.00383 10:45:01 $3,449,423 0.00165 11:00:01 $3,455,749 0.00183 11:15:02 $3,466,419 0.00308 11:30:01 $3,474,076 0.00220 11:45:02 noon posting today ~ slight uptick in rate of change of funding level (see slight change end of graph) $3,476,017 0.00055 12:00:01 $3,483,942 0.00227 12:15:01 $3,494,038 0.00289 12:30:02 $3,512,621 0.00531 12:45:01 $3,517,943 0.00151 13:00:01 $3,525,984 0.00228 13:15:02 $3,531,110 0.00145 13:30:01 $3,545,968 0.00420 13:45:01 $3,550,419 0.00125 14:00:02
itstriz 13y ago
I threw together a quick version of this in Python and for Kickstarter projects instead of IndieGoGo in case it's useful to anyone. https://github.com/itstriz/kickstart_tracker https://github.com/itstriz/kickstart_tracker
mongol 13y ago
If this showed up on Dragon's Den, Mark would get kicked out head first. He has a vision, but how will he get there? The path ahead needs much better details. Right now he is selling a dream, but for $ 32 million he better explain how to get there. For example: on what estimates does he base the expected deliver date? What are the tasks ahead, and how far along is he already? It is impossible to judge what risk is associated with this project when there are so many unknowns. He sells this to us the same way that wallets and pens are sold on Kickstarter. If he can get 32 million with no more than this, I am impressed. PS: The project might be very realistic, but how can we know? For example, Pebble missed some certification that screwed German backers since customs stopped the watches. There are a million small things that can go wrong - how well prepared is Ubuntu to deal with those?
phillikespuff 13y ago
I DOnt really see why would someone donate to ubuntu edge. Its like donating to apple's new mobile phone. Canonical is a private company that their really purpose is money, just like every other company. Now canonical has begun to have the same ethics like apple and microsoft. Ubuntu is invading your privacy to benefit canonical and earn as much money as possible, which is kind of shame if you think that GNU/LINUX (which ubuntu is based on) is characterized by its freedom. Also canonical is selling now products, which im not opposed to that. Now, canonical is launching a mobile phone where im totally sure that will not respect your freedom. * So a private company asks you to donate them in order to make a production of mobile phones, so that you would be able to buy a phone that costs approximately 800 dollars. cool dont you think..? Go ahead dumbo and donate, or go ahead and be fan like these i-fags boys that wait days to have a shitty phone.
Buzaga 13y ago
having one of these and use it as a phone/development-machine/transformer would be seriously awesome, no?
niels_olson 13y ago
$10k growth every 15 minutes 1 day after pre-launch? I'd take that. Of course, the project has been working hard for 10 years too.
general_failure 13y ago
It's unlikely Edge will get 30m USD. And I am usually never wrong when it comes to predictions.
miga 13y ago
So what are estimates of total funding in 30 days?
seferphier 13y ago
They need to devise a new kickstarter reward scheme. (understandably, this would create more logistical problems) $20 - access to discussions. $40 - private beta to ubuntu convergence $50 - ubuntu edge t shirt, private beta to ubuntu convergence $60 - ubuntu phone dock, private beta to ubuntu convergence $90 - ubuntu dock, t shirt and private beta to ubuntu convergence $650 - early bird: ubuntu edge (add $30 for dock) $700 - ubuntu edge $750 - early bird: ubuntu edge + 1gb extra ram / extra storage $800 - ubuntu edge + 2gb extra ram / extra storage $850 - early bird: ubuntu edge + 1gb extra ram / extra storage $900 - ubuntu edge + 2gb extra ram / extra storage $1200 - ubuntu edge + 2gb extra ram / extra storage plus custom limited edition orange casing + t shirt $20,000 - air ticket to london for a private tour around the office where we will share the making of ubuntu edge and receive your ubuntu edge first
akandiah 13y ago
Due to many requests, they have added more funding levels.
movebits 13y ago
24/7/2013 - updated graph and data after $625.- deal @7 a.m. was posted

151 points by rcaught 13y ago

added more data; chart starting time; up until 1:30 p.m. today

JDShu 13y ago

I have a similar script running and observed the same thing. Yesterday I thought that they were well on track towards making the goal, but it seems that the one day only deal heavily skewed pledges towards the first day compared to the average crowdfunded project: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-duration http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/trends-in-pricing-and-durati... Based on the %time vs %backing chart, the second day usually secures around the same amount of funding as the first day. However in the case of the Ubuntu Edge, it received above average percentage backing on the first day, but has already hit the trough.

twoodfin 13y ago
The $600 vs. $830 funding levels seem like a really bad move. It gave their most enthusiastic supporters a chance to give them less money, which is the opposite of what you'd typically want. And for the next month, everyone who visits the project will feel like they're getting screwed out of $230 by not having been one of the early funders.
- seferphier 13y ago
  i feel that 600 is a good deal but 830 is way to steep.
- JaggedJax 13y ago
  You're right about the first part, but they've removed the $600 level from the page since it's over, so people coming for the first time won't be able to compare it like that. $830 is still steep for a phone though, even a nice one.
  - whyaduck 13y ago
    If they don't do their research they won't be aware that they missed the lower price point. So how large is the set of people who want a Ubuntu powered smart phone for $830, but who don't do a simple search before buying?
- Robin_Message 13y ago
  Yeah, a $700-800 phone and a $800-1000 limited edition founders pack (phone plus some recognition) would have made more sense and been revenue neutral. I looked at it, was interested but not sure. Now the $600 is sold out, I feel lees likely to buy one, even though that is partly irrational (I should just evaluate whether it is worth $830 to me, not be upset I missed out on the cheaper one).
- josh2600 13y ago
  Personally, I don't think Ubuntu actually wants the $32M. Remember, Mark specifically says that most manufacturers won't take you seriously unless you order 100,000 units. At $600 per phone, that's only 53k units (the volumes look worse at $830 per phone). They can't actually manufacture the phone as described for $32M. So, this is, IMHO, a publicity stunt intended to get carriers interested in Ubuntu phone, and it probably was quite successful.
  - storborg 13y ago
    $600 per phone is the price, not the manufacturing cost.
    - josh2600 13y ago
      Chances are, with a volume of less than 100k units, and with the Bill of Materials they're generating, I would be surprised if the cost of the phone were under $600. It's possible, but unlikely. I would wager that they can't even buy RAM directly from Samsung without an order over 100k units. So yeah, maybe $600 per phone is high, but maybe not. They're talking about a serious bill of materials, and although they're economizing on the CMOS and the LCD for the screen, I don't think that will reduce the cost much. The sapphire screen and the single-cut shell are both significant cost structures. It's fun to argue about unknowable things, but given that (I assume) neither of us works for Canonical, I think the answer is probably that you're right. It would be hard for that phone to cost $600, but it won't be cheap.
  - sz4kerto 13y ago
    It is, at least that was hinted by an Ubuntu team member, here: http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_canonical_az_ubuntu_edge_telefon_piacra_dobasahoz#comment-1625092 http://hup.hu/cikkek/20130723/indiegogo_kampanyt_inditott_a_... Rough translation of the first sentence ("Ennek az akciónak elsősorban az a célja, hogy az Ubuntu híre még jobban eljusson az átlagemberekhez."): The aim of this move is to raise awareness about Ubuntu among average users.
  - dwild 13y ago
    Quite successful? They got about 6500 preorders for a phone with better specs than anything on the market currently, for less than most of them. A publicity stunt to get people interested on Ubuntu phone maybe, but I doubt that theses numbers are good for carriers...
- smacktoward 13y ago
  But since the $600 level was only available for one day, it served as a push to get those enthusiastic supporters to get into the pool right away instead of wavering back and forth for the next month. If your goal for something like this is PR, you want a big first-day number you can give press to try and gin up a second round of stories about the campaign. So it can be worth it to potentially lose a little on those sales if by doing so you can get more of them into that first-day figure.

cs702 13y ago

SUGGESTION: please show the rate at which the total is growing, e.g., in dollars/minute, and compare that to the rate necessary to reach the fundraising goal. Otherwise, it's hard to see whether the total is growing at a sufficiently fast rate just by looking at that chart. For example, as I write this, the campaign must raise an additional $28.5 million over the next 30 days, equal to under $40,000/hour or around $660/minute. So right now it would be helpful to see if the total is growing by at least $660/minute.

icegreentea 13y ago
Labelling the x-axis would also be kind of useful. And what does the note in the legend mean? "first day @ 12p.m. curve flatlines after $600 - deal ends"?
- Aaronneyer 13y ago
  The chart starts at 12pm on the first day, because thats when the author started grabbing information.. If you look on the curve, you can see that at $3.2 million, the curve kind of flat lines, or at least levels out a bit. This is when they ran out of the 5,000 phones they were offering at $600.
  - movebits 13y ago
    chart starts @3:30 p.m. first day
  - gamerDude 13y ago
    Because we only have one day it is hard to tell, but when they hit 3.2 Million it was also Midnight, so less people may have been active. Perhaps after work hours funding will increase in pace again.
- Stratoscope 13y ago
  There was a $600 perk available for the first 24 hours. It went up to $830 for the same phone after that.

doe88 13y ago

It was really a bad move to have created the $800 level without adding anything to the $600 package. Even adding only a small thing would certainly have improved the funding. Another factor is that in lot of minds $600 is the price point for high ends smartphones, pricing above is really really risked.

neltnerb 13y ago
Yeah, this was basically my thinking. I'd love to support a high end phone with an OS not intended to collect every iota of my personal data and use it for advertising. However, while $600 is a price I'd pay to have it now, $600 for the given specifications in a year is too risky. But at the very least they've got some price validation. Seems like reasonably robust data for a highly visible campaign at both $600 and $820 price points that should give at least moderately good data on the price-demand curve.
- martron 13y ago
  They just announced a new perk, 2 phones for $1400 ($700/phone). I was wondering how they were going to offer future discounts without pissing off those that have already pledged $800. This is a kind of neat approach since you'd probably need a friend to buy-in with you which should also enhance the viral plan. I'm a little surprised this came so quickly on the second day but I guess the earlier it gets to a high value the better it is for visibility. They see the same metrics that we do and can use it as a gauge on variable pricing to maximize the potential buy-in.
lipanski 13y ago
35 minutes ago they updated the perk list with the "double edge": two ubuntu edge devices for $1400. Stil a better bargain than one piece at $830. I do think that when you're going for this kind of money on a crowdfunding website you kind of know what you're doing. The update also states that they'll be having plenty of other updates during the next weeks. No matter how it ends, this is going to be a really interesting experiment for the marketing guys at Canonical and for crowdfunding in general.

thezilch 13y ago

So, can we expect the funding to fail? Do we have similar charts for other like fundings? Personally, even the $600 watermark is too high. Perhaps I and my colleagues are not the right market, but either * we've been fooled by prices on Google's Nexus devices * the extra power doesn't justify the cost or isn't necessary for our needs * we might as well get Lenovos -- half our guys have a history of dropping their phones or otherwise damaging their phone At the end of the day, I connect to numerous remote hosts to get work done, which negates the purpose if I just need a shell and terminal multiplex and browser to run on my localhost. I'm not going to want to run my RDB, search DB, KV store, cache store, messaging bus, etc from that phone. The specs are nice, for a phone, but it's not a workstation.

jmathai 13y ago
> So, can we expect the funding to fail? I don't think so. This target for this crowdfunding project is an order of magnitude larger than the infamous Pebble watch. I'm not sure we can apply the same rules. On one hand I think it will be even harder to reach the goal. But on the other hand I think the sheer audacity and scope might have some unexpected benefits. Nonetheless, I'd say in the end we'll consider it a successful fundraising campaign. Even if the goal isn't met and the phone never gets created what's happened so far proves that there's an opportunity for Ubuntu to find a niche that's underserved with their vision of convergence.

baran1 13y ago

The podcast to this blog entry http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/05/15/184208123/were-making-t-shirts-lots-and-lots-of-t-shirts http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/05/15/184208123/were-mak... goes through what the funding graph for their kickstarter project looks like. TLDR; level in the middle, spikes at the end.

velodrome 13y ago

I calculated the average rate after current dropoff. The funding will fail and the total will be roughly around $20 million dollars. Still, that is quite a bit of money and at least some sort of validation. They should have kept it at $600 and increased the total needed for the project. Some quick calculations: ($3476017 - $3180762) / 12 hours = $24605 / hour $3180762 + $24605 / hour * (30 days * 24 hours / day) = $20,896,062

skriticos2 13y ago
You do realize that this makes every statistician cringe? Your sample size for calculation is too small to base any kind of reliable projections on it making this a pure guess.
- AnIrishDuck 13y ago
  By my calculations from this first month, we can reasonably conclude that the subject will give birth to nine babies in eight months.
- velodrome 13y ago
  Of course. There is so little data to work with many assumptions. This is why I said it was a quick calculation. If you can do better, please share :P Unfortunately, I just don't have the time. Besides, the only conclusion that can be drawn at this time is that this is going to be a one of the largest kickstarter-style funding efforts ever. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8Ezwg5LKd4
  - backprojection 13y ago
    Yes, if we had this kind of data for several campaigns, then you could compute a (normalized) <% of goal> vs. <time>, and from that estimate the final <% of goal> for this campaign. The problem with your original calculation, is you're assuming the rate is constant, which it may be, roughly, for day 3 through day 27, however in these campaigns there's always an uptick right before the deadline. Really, it's that uptick that you want to estimate, based on previous campaigns. I don't think kickstarter or indigogo release this kind of data though, unfortunately.

pulakm 13y ago

It would be pretty interesting to see what the funding progress chart was for other large crowdfunded projects (Pebble, Double Fine, etc) for comparison. If we assume that the rate of funding will not increase beyond the current rate, the project will not meet the goal. I don't know how valid that assumption is, though -- intuitively it makes sense, but it is possible that other projects have challenged that assumption. Especially possible if they managed to get a further round of press midway through the campaign.

makepanic 13y ago
There is a website that shows you stats of kickstarter projects. Double Fine: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/66710809/double-fine-adventure/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/66710809/double-fine-advent... Pebble: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-watch-for-iphone-and-android/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/597507018/pebble-e-paper-wa... OUYA: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-vid...
ne0phyte 13y ago
Why didn't you google? There's a site that keeps track of kickstarter projects:http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console/ http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-vid...
- pulakm 13y ago
  Sorry about that - I tried Googling but was unsuccessful!
azernik 13y ago
People have posted a bunch of stats; the stories project starters on Kickstarter have posted tend to indicate that there's a surge of funding when a project is new, and another surge when the deadline is about to run out (people who were procrastinating start to feel time pressure). Not sure if there's a good law for predicting the sizes of these two surges, or how much the addition of new reward levels can add additional bumps in the middle.

pavs 13y ago

Most of you guys are missing the point, this is not your premium device of an existing manufacturer, so its moot to compare prices with nexus 4, s4, or any other premium device. This is similar (but definitely not same) to the idea of supporting tesla by buying their very expensive models when they first came out. Those people who paid premium price for their car, because they were supportive to the idea of Tesla's vision of clean electric cars. Because of these early adopters, tesla today exists as a company and has a product. While Ubuntu Edge is not as revolutionary as Tesla, it has some unique ideas, made by a company that is loved by most of Open Source and Linux community. By buying an comparably expensive device, you are supporting open source platform and giving chance for another serious option besides the present duopoly. Whether you agree with this vision or not is a different story, whether you think one open source option (Android) is enough is another story. But if you are comparing Edge with current mainstream device with price and feature, then this device is clearly not meant for you, but if you are supporting this device with your money because of philosophical reasons, then this device is for you, and you are the type people Ubuntu is asking for support.

wodenokoto 13y ago
840 usd for an off-contract high-end smartphone isn't unreasonable. A 64gb iPhone 5 off-contract is more expensive, and that's half the space. So yes, you can compare it to current devices, and it sounds like it is beating them.
- scholia 13y ago
  Yes, but the iPhone 5 is sold at Apple's rapacious profit margins, and it has a _much_ lower spec than the Edge. Edge has to be relatively expensive because costs are amortized over 40,000 units rather than 40,000,000.
  - stephencanon 13y ago
    > it has a _much_ lower spec than the Edge. A shipping device always beats an imaginary device on specs. It’ll be interesting to compare specs if and when the Edge actually ships. Until then ...

antimora 13y ago

I don't understand why the numbers do not add up to $3,518,954. This is what I've got so far 20×1347+373×830+13×1400=$354,730. Was there a baseline to begin with?

ximeng 13y ago
They sold something like 5044 at 600 and then removed it from the page. Also 3 at 10000.
calebegg 13y ago
I believe you can donate on indiegogo without selecting a reward.

drcoopster 13y ago

I was close to going for the $600 price point, but ultimately even that is too much (for me) for what is essentially preproduction-quality hardware of dubious utility (to me).

mpg33 13y ago

Whoa, seemed to level right off for some reason.

movebits 13y ago

uptick in funding after posting to hn (was posted at noon) - surely not significant... still... funding rate of time change $3,417,771 0.00170 10:00:01 $3,423,612 0.00170 10:15:01 $3,430,588 0.00203 10:30:02 $3,443,738 0.00383 10:45:01 $3,449,423 0.00165 11:00:01 $3,455,749 0.00183 11:15:02 $3,466,419 0.00308 11:30:01 $3,474,076 0.00220 11:45:02 noon posting today ~ slight uptick in rate of change of funding level (see slight change end of graph) $3,476,017 0.00055 12:00:01 $3,483,942 0.00227 12:15:01 $3,494,038 0.00289 12:30:02 $3,512,621 0.00531 12:45:01 $3,517,943 0.00151 13:00:01 $3,525,984 0.00228 13:15:02 $3,531,110 0.00145 13:30:01 $3,545,968 0.00420 13:45:01 $3,550,419 0.00125 14:00:02

itstriz 13y ago

I threw together a quick version of this in Python and for Kickstarter projects instead of IndieGoGo in case it's useful to anyone. https://github.com/itstriz/kickstart_tracker https://github.com/itstriz/kickstart_tracker

mongol 13y ago

If this showed up on Dragon's Den, Mark would get kicked out head first. He has a vision, but how will he get there? The path ahead needs much better details. Right now he is selling a dream, but for $ 32 million he better explain how to get there. For example: on what estimates does he base the expected deliver date? What are the tasks ahead, and how far along is he already? It is impossible to judge what risk is associated with this project when there are so many unknowns. He sells this to us the same way that wallets and pens are sold on Kickstarter. If he can get 32 million with no more than this, I am impressed. PS: The project might be very realistic, but how can we know? For example, Pebble missed some certification that screwed German backers since customs stopped the watches. There are a million small things that can go wrong - how well prepared is Ubuntu to deal with those?

phillikespuff 13y ago

I DOnt really see why would someone donate to ubuntu edge. Its like donating to apple's new mobile phone. Canonical is a private company that their really purpose is money, just like every other company. Now canonical has begun to have the same ethics like apple and microsoft. Ubuntu is invading your privacy to benefit canonical and earn as much money as possible, which is kind of shame if you think that GNU/LINUX (which ubuntu is based on) is characterized by its freedom. Also canonical is selling now products, which im not opposed to that. Now, canonical is launching a mobile phone where im totally sure that will not respect your freedom. * So a private company asks you to donate them in order to make a production of mobile phones, so that you would be able to buy a phone that costs approximately 800 dollars. cool dont you think..? Go ahead dumbo and donate, or go ahead and be fan like these i-fags boys that wait days to have a shitty phone.

Buzaga 13y ago

having one of these and use it as a phone/development-machine/transformer would be seriously awesome, no?

niels_olson 13y ago

$10k growth every 15 minutes 1 day after pre-launch? I'd take that. Of course, the project has been working hard for 10 years too.

general_failure 13y ago

It's unlikely Edge will get 30m USD. And I am usually never wrong when it comes to predictions.

miga 13y ago

So what are estimates of total funding in 30 days?

seferphier 13y ago

They need to devise a new kickstarter reward scheme. (understandably, this would create more logistical problems) $20 - access to discussions. $40 - private beta to ubuntu convergence $50 - ubuntu edge t shirt, private beta to ubuntu convergence $60 - ubuntu phone dock, private beta to ubuntu convergence $90 - ubuntu dock, t shirt and private beta to ubuntu convergence $650 - early bird: ubuntu edge (add $30 for dock) $700 - ubuntu edge $750 - early bird: ubuntu edge + 1gb extra ram / extra storage $800 - ubuntu edge + 2gb extra ram / extra storage $850 - early bird: ubuntu edge + 1gb extra ram / extra storage $900 - ubuntu edge + 2gb extra ram / extra storage $1200 - ubuntu edge + 2gb extra ram / extra storage plus custom limited edition orange casing + t shirt $20,000 - air ticket to london for a private tour around the office where we will share the making of ubuntu edge and receive your ubuntu edge first

akandiah 13y ago

Due to many requests, they have added more funding levels.

movebits 13y ago

24/7/2013 - updated graph and data after $625.- deal @7 a.m. was posted