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What would the trivial/baseline model be, just a straight average of all state polls for the last X days? That would be interesting to know, but also easy to f
by SkyMarshal 13y ago
What would the trivial/baseline model be, just a straight average of all state polls for the last X days?
That would be interesting to know, but also easy to find out.
- foobarqux 13y agoI wouldn't say there is a canonical baseline model but your example would be a reasonable place to start. Weighted average by sample size is a straightforward modification. Just using the most recent reliable poll would also be interesting. I think most of the extra value you could add would be from analyzing the poll data to get a sense of which polls were unreliable.