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I'm wondering if the ambitious goal of $32M is part of their strategy. Given that a higher goal is less likely to be met, I (and others who might consider backi

I'm wondering if the ambitious goal of $32M is part of their strategy. Given that a higher goal is less likely to be met, I (and others who might consider backing) may be willing to adjust our risk function for the $600-800 such that we are more likely to back the project. Assuming that after 30 days only $20M is raised, then the outcome is as follows: 1: Nobody is actually charged for supporting the project 2: Other interested parties (phone manufacturers and carriers) will see that there is demand for a phone that doesn't even exist yet. These interested parties might consider reaching this market to differentiate from the current phone OS leaders. 3: Canonical still gets to see their OS in smartphones. Maybe I'm reaching at straws. I do believe them when they say that manufacturing at scale is expensive.

ealexhudson 13y ago
Yeah, it's quite possible they realise how unlikely the target is, and it could just be a way of attempting to demonstrate the market (given $830 is likely at one end of the bell-curve, it's a potentially interesting data point). I find it a bit baffling. I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market, but maybe there is a Nexus-like role for this hardware in terms of getting the ODMs to up their game. But, as a way of testing the market, I don't understand it. The FirefoxOS approach is much more appropriate, tbh, and if anything they need volume (which is going to come from the lower end of the market) not quality.
- oblique63 13y ago
  > I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market I don't know, from all the design hints Canonical's been dropping in the last few years, it seems like they really are trying to place themselves as direct competitors to apple, however naive/overambitious that may sound. So a play for hardware wouldn't surprise me that much. I think this stunt would make much less sense if it were purely to advance an android/firefox-style mobile os strategy.
  - TheLegace 13y ago
    In the video Mark says that they're not making it for consumers and saying that they want other companies to do it and they will show them kind of thing. It doesn't sound to inspiring in the long term though.
    - oblique63 13y ago
      > they want other companies to do it and they will show them Isn't that what the iphone inadvertently did anyway though? If Edge succeeds, the logical consequence would be that other manufacturers would start to pay attention in one form or another, Canonical just seems to be upfront about the fact and is trying to presumably leverage it somehow. Apple's strategy is based around ios exclusivity on a limited set of 'high-end' devices though, so it's hard to predict what exactly Canonical is planning for after the Edge succeeds/fails. I'm fairly certain Shuttleworth is heavily inspired by the Apple playbook, but their hints at android-like distribution are admittedly somewhat confusing. It's almost like they want to do both modes of attack, but I'm not sure how that would work (nor how competing directly against android would succeed either for that matter). Only time will tell. Personally, I find the sheer fact that they're actually Open and trying something new to be quite inspiring on it's own. Long-term? That's anyone's guess, but I wouldn't exactly bet against them at this point, that's for sure.
- muyuu 13y ago
  I also thought Light Table was insanely over-ambitious for a 1-man software project and it got funded. Maybe Ubuntu can pull this off. If I had not very recently bought a high end smartphone I'd chip in. I might chip in anyway.
bryanlarsen 13y ago
I would have backed based on this theory if it was a Kickstarter project. Kickstarter uses Amazon and doesn't charge until the end of the drive. Indiegogo uses Paypal, and charges immediately, giving a refund if the drive fails. While both of these differences aren't quite showstoppers, they're enough that I didn't pull the trigger on something that seems highly unlikely to succeed. I wouldn't mind paying $600 for this thing if it actually happened, but I would mind having $600 sitting around in my rarely used paypal account.
- sspiff 13y ago
  In my experience, refunds on PayPal go back to your credit card. Am I wrong about this?
  - rlpb 13y ago
    From https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID=94023&m=SRE https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID...: "If you paid with your debit card or credit card, your payment is refunded to that card."
  - bryanlarsen 13y ago
    I've had the opposite experience, which is why I'm bringing up this issue. However, my refund was processed as a payment to me rather than a refund, so it's quite possible that your experience is the more typical one.
  - jlgaddis 13y ago
    If you use a credit or debit card, yes. PayPal, however, does everything possible to (get you to) use ACH transfer from your bank account instead. In that case, I believe that you would end up with $600/$850 sitting in your PayPal account and withdrawing can be a PITA in some cases.
- dangoor 13y ago
  You could withdraw the $600... I do appreciate you pointing this difference out though, because it does mean that folks will have $600 (or $830) tied up in this from day 1 and not from day 31.
achiang 13y ago
Manufacturing is expensive. The vast majority of the $32M goes simply to manufacturing. The remainder covers taxes, fees, shipping, certification, and returns. It does not cover the cost of the development team's time.
- lsiebert 13y ago
  Money isn't static, and the interest isn't negligible. Assuming you can get 1 % interest per month on the 32,000,000 before paying it out, that is still 320k. They can hold it for 2-3 months and pay their developers easily.
  - Guvante 13y ago
    You can't get 1% interest risk free in a high-interest market, let alone the current one. If you try really hard you can get 1% a year without taking on risk. And you can't have any risk if you are going to be manufacturing phones with that money (sorry we don't have enough phones, we bet on Apple and their stock went down 20%).
    - YokoZar 13y ago
      US Government Treasury bonds have a 3.5% annual interest rate. I'm pretty sure that buying them does not require trying hard.
      - _delirium 13y ago
        The grandparent was talking about 1% per month, though. That would equate to (with compounding) a 12.5% annual interest rate, which no remotely safe financial instrument is paying.
      - Guvante 13y ago
        What bond has that high of an interest rate? I am seeing 0.3% annual rates for US bonds right now. (And that is for 2 year bonds, not very good for 1-3 month lags)

ealexhudson 13y ago

Yeah, it's quite possible they realise how unlikely the target is, and it could just be a way of attempting to demonstrate the market (given $830 is likely at one end of the bell-curve, it's a potentially interesting data point). I find it a bit baffling. I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market, but maybe there is a Nexus-like role for this hardware in terms of getting the ODMs to up their game. But, as a way of testing the market, I don't understand it. The FirefoxOS approach is much more appropriate, tbh, and if anything they need volume (which is going to come from the lower end of the market) not quality.

oblique63 13y ago
> I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market I don't know, from all the design hints Canonical's been dropping in the last few years, it seems like they really are trying to place themselves as direct competitors to apple, however naive/overambitious that may sound. So a play for hardware wouldn't surprise me that much. I think this stunt would make much less sense if it were purely to advance an android/firefox-style mobile os strategy.
- TheLegace 13y ago
  In the video Mark says that they're not making it for consumers and saying that they want other companies to do it and they will show them kind of thing. It doesn't sound to inspiring in the long term though.
  - oblique63 13y ago
    > they want other companies to do it and they will show them Isn't that what the iphone inadvertently did anyway though? If Edge succeeds, the logical consequence would be that other manufacturers would start to pay attention in one form or another, Canonical just seems to be upfront about the fact and is trying to presumably leverage it somehow. Apple's strategy is based around ios exclusivity on a limited set of 'high-end' devices though, so it's hard to predict what exactly Canonical is planning for after the Edge succeeds/fails. I'm fairly certain Shuttleworth is heavily inspired by the Apple playbook, but their hints at android-like distribution are admittedly somewhat confusing. It's almost like they want to do both modes of attack, but I'm not sure how that would work (nor how competing directly against android would succeed either for that matter). Only time will tell. Personally, I find the sheer fact that they're actually Open and trying something new to be quite inspiring on it's own. Long-term? That's anyone's guess, but I wouldn't exactly bet against them at this point, that's for sure.
muyuu 13y ago
I also thought Light Table was insanely over-ambitious for a 1-man software project and it got funded. Maybe Ubuntu can pull this off. If I had not very recently bought a high end smartphone I'd chip in. I might chip in anyway.

bryanlarsen 13y ago

I would have backed based on this theory if it was a Kickstarter project. Kickstarter uses Amazon and doesn't charge until the end of the drive. Indiegogo uses Paypal, and charges immediately, giving a refund if the drive fails. While both of these differences aren't quite showstoppers, they're enough that I didn't pull the trigger on something that seems highly unlikely to succeed. I wouldn't mind paying $600 for this thing if it actually happened, but I would mind having $600 sitting around in my rarely used paypal account.

sspiff 13y ago
In my experience, refunds on PayPal go back to your credit card. Am I wrong about this?
- rlpb 13y ago
  From https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID=94023&m=SRE https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID...: "If you paid with your debit card or credit card, your payment is refunded to that card."
- bryanlarsen 13y ago
  I've had the opposite experience, which is why I'm bringing up this issue. However, my refund was processed as a payment to me rather than a refund, so it's quite possible that your experience is the more typical one.
- jlgaddis 13y ago
  If you use a credit or debit card, yes. PayPal, however, does everything possible to (get you to) use ACH transfer from your bank account instead. In that case, I believe that you would end up with $600/$850 sitting in your PayPal account and withdrawing can be a PITA in some cases.
dangoor 13y ago
You could withdraw the $600... I do appreciate you pointing this difference out though, because it does mean that folks will have $600 (or $830) tied up in this from day 1 and not from day 31.

achiang 13y ago

Manufacturing is expensive. The vast majority of the $32M goes simply to manufacturing. The remainder covers taxes, fees, shipping, certification, and returns. It does not cover the cost of the development team's time.

lsiebert 13y ago
Money isn't static, and the interest isn't negligible. Assuming you can get 1 % interest per month on the 32,000,000 before paying it out, that is still 320k. They can hold it for 2-3 months and pay their developers easily.
- Guvante 13y ago
  You can't get 1% interest risk free in a high-interest market, let alone the current one. If you try really hard you can get 1% a year without taking on risk. And you can't have any risk if you are going to be manufacturing phones with that money (sorry we don't have enough phones, we bet on Apple and their stock went down 20%).
  - YokoZar 13y ago
    US Government Treasury bonds have a 3.5% annual interest rate. I'm pretty sure that buying them does not require trying hard.
    - _delirium 13y ago
      The grandparent was talking about 1% per month, though. That would equate to (with compounding) a 12.5% annual interest rate, which no remotely safe financial instrument is paying.
    - Guvante 13y ago
      What bond has that high of an interest rate? I am seeing 0.3% annual rates for US bonds right now. (And that is for 2 year bonds, not very good for 1-3 month lags)