7 ms·

I upvoted this because I think it's an interesting experiment. Attempting to raise $1M+ every day for a month, though, I think is insanely ambitious. Asking peo

I upvoted this because I think it's an interesting experiment. Attempting to raise $1M+ every day for a month, though, I think is insanely ambitious. Asking people for $830 for a device that they won't get for a year is asking a lot, particularly since the specs aren't worlds away from current phones (two years time, and probably $500 would get you a device with those specs, unlocked). Worse, I just don't even get the use case. If I have to dock it with stuff to make it work, that means I need some kind of installation. Spending more money just so I can carry my PC around instead of having at home on a desk - hm, really not sure about that. People who use their mobile as a primary device tend not to have any sort of desktop, and I don't really get the impression they miss it that much.

dkokelley 13y ago
I'm wondering if the ambitious goal of $32M is part of their strategy. Given that a higher goal is less likely to be met, I (and others who might consider backing) may be willing to adjust our risk function for the $600-800 such that we are more likely to back the project. Assuming that after 30 days only $20M is raised, then the outcome is as follows: 1: Nobody is actually charged for supporting the project 2: Other interested parties (phone manufacturers and carriers) will see that there is demand for a phone that doesn't even exist yet. These interested parties might consider reaching this market to differentiate from the current phone OS leaders. 3: Canonical still gets to see their OS in smartphones. Maybe I'm reaching at straws. I do believe them when they say that manufacturing at scale is expensive.
- ealexhudson 13y ago
  Yeah, it's quite possible they realise how unlikely the target is, and it could just be a way of attempting to demonstrate the market (given $830 is likely at one end of the bell-curve, it's a potentially interesting data point). I find it a bit baffling. I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market, but maybe there is a Nexus-like role for this hardware in terms of getting the ODMs to up their game. But, as a way of testing the market, I don't understand it. The FirefoxOS approach is much more appropriate, tbh, and if anything they need volume (which is going to come from the lower end of the market) not quality.
  - oblique63 13y ago
    > I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market I don't know, from all the design hints Canonical's been dropping in the last few years, it seems like they really are trying to place themselves as direct competitors to apple, however naive/overambitious that may sound. So a play for hardware wouldn't surprise me that much. I think this stunt would make much less sense if it were purely to advance an android/firefox-style mobile os strategy.
    - TheLegace 13y ago
      In the video Mark says that they're not making it for consumers and saying that they want other companies to do it and they will show them kind of thing. It doesn't sound to inspiring in the long term though.
      - oblique63 13y ago
        > they want other companies to do it and they will show them Isn't that what the iphone inadvertently did anyway though? If Edge succeeds, the logical consequence would be that other manufacturers would start to pay attention in one form or another, Canonical just seems to be upfront about the fact and is trying to presumably leverage it somehow. Apple's strategy is based around ios exclusivity on a limited set of 'high-end' devices though, so it's hard to predict what exactly Canonical is planning for after the Edge succeeds/fails. I'm fairly certain Shuttleworth is heavily inspired by the Apple playbook, but their hints at android-like distribution are admittedly somewhat confusing. It's almost like they want to do both modes of attack, but I'm not sure how that would work (nor how competing directly against android would succeed either for that matter). Only time will tell. Personally, I find the sheer fact that they're actually Open and trying something new to be quite inspiring on it's own. Long-term? That's anyone's guess, but I wouldn't exactly bet against them at this point, that's for sure.
  - muyuu 13y ago
    I also thought Light Table was insanely over-ambitious for a 1-man software project and it got funded. Maybe Ubuntu can pull this off. If I had not very recently bought a high end smartphone I'd chip in. I might chip in anyway.
- bryanlarsen 13y ago
  I would have backed based on this theory if it was a Kickstarter project. Kickstarter uses Amazon and doesn't charge until the end of the drive. Indiegogo uses Paypal, and charges immediately, giving a refund if the drive fails. While both of these differences aren't quite showstoppers, they're enough that I didn't pull the trigger on something that seems highly unlikely to succeed. I wouldn't mind paying $600 for this thing if it actually happened, but I would mind having $600 sitting around in my rarely used paypal account.
  - sspiff 13y ago
    In my experience, refunds on PayPal go back to your credit card. Am I wrong about this?
    - rlpb 13y ago
      From https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID=94023&m=SRE https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID...: "If you paid with your debit card or credit card, your payment is refunded to that card."
    - bryanlarsen 13y ago
      I've had the opposite experience, which is why I'm bringing up this issue. However, my refund was processed as a payment to me rather than a refund, so it's quite possible that your experience is the more typical one.
    - jlgaddis 13y ago
      If you use a credit or debit card, yes. PayPal, however, does everything possible to (get you to) use ACH transfer from your bank account instead. In that case, I believe that you would end up with $600/$850 sitting in your PayPal account and withdrawing can be a PITA in some cases.
  - dangoor 13y ago
    You could withdraw the $600... I do appreciate you pointing this difference out though, because it does mean that folks will have $600 (or $830) tied up in this from day 1 and not from day 31.
- achiang 13y ago
  Manufacturing is expensive. The vast majority of the $32M goes simply to manufacturing. The remainder covers taxes, fees, shipping, certification, and returns. It does not cover the cost of the development team's time.
  - lsiebert 13y ago
    Money isn't static, and the interest isn't negligible. Assuming you can get 1 % interest per month on the 32,000,000 before paying it out, that is still 320k. They can hold it for 2-3 months and pay their developers easily.
    - Guvante 13y ago
      You can't get 1% interest risk free in a high-interest market, let alone the current one. If you try really hard you can get 1% a year without taking on risk. And you can't have any risk if you are going to be manufacturing phones with that money (sorry we don't have enough phones, we bet on Apple and their stock went down 20%).
      - YokoZar 13y ago
        US Government Treasury bonds have a 3.5% annual interest rate. I'm pretty sure that buying them does not require trying hard.
        _delirium 13y ago
        The grandparent was talking about 1% per month, though. That would equate to (with compounding) a 12.5% annual interest rate, which no remotely safe financial instrument is paying.
        Guvante 13y ago
        What bond has that high of an interest rate? I am seeing 0.3% annual rates for US bonds right now. (And that is for 2 year bonds, not very good for 1-3 month lags)
dubcanada 13y ago
One of the reasons they went with IndieGoGo vs KickStarter is probably that they know they may not reach $32M. So they'll take what they can (IndieGogo gives you what you make, vs kickstarter that you need to make more then you request in order to get it) and do what they can. As far as I am concerned they may have just typed in a random number in the millions as people like goals.
- mobbom 13y ago
  While this is possible with IndieGoGo, they selected to only receive funds if the project is fully funded. This is detailed under the "Contribute now" button.
  - dubcanada 13y ago
    Hrm... you're right. I'm wondering why they would do that? Does it really take $32M to create a new phone for mass market?
    - DocG 13y ago
      at least. And it is "one run only" phone. This is for selling the whole production series. It is only around 40 000 phones. Most phones sell at least in millions.
      - lettergram 13y ago
        If 40,000 people are willing to fund the initial production going mainstream would be easy. I believe in the video they even said that if enough people were interested they could get more backing.
        DocG 13y ago
        I think video said if this thing succeeds, then there might be similar future projects. If not, there wont be next edge or similar projects. "The Ubuntu Edge is an exclusive production run, available only through Indiegogo" But there is no going mainstream, it is the whole point. This is not the mainstream pc/mobile. Good quote from comment section: "It's a premier, demonstration platform, not a mass market device." -achiang I think what they are doing is awesome and comparison with formula 1 is pretty spot on. They are trying to build mobile with new approach, build it as PC.
DocG 13y ago
The first paragraph explains it. let me quote: "In the car industry, Formula 1 provides a commercial testbed for cutting-edge technologies. The Ubuntu Edge project aims to do the same for the mobile phone industry -- to provide a low-volume, high-technology platform, crowdfunded by enthusiasts and mobile computing professionals. A pioneering project that accelerates the adoption of new technologies and drives them down into the mainstream." It is not for you. If you want good phone, there are plenty out there to choose from. formula 1 car is impossible to use in everyday life. It has really specific place where it excels. Edge is probably medicore phone and medicore pc, but it is probably really good at being both at the same time. It is wrong approach to compare it to mobile users. Edit: quote from comment section: "It's a premier, demonstration platform, not a mass market device." -achiang
- jfb 13y ago
  It's an interesting project (not for me, personally, but hey, let a hundred flowers bloom and all that), but I think that they're overestimating the state of phone hardware commoditization, if they expect that they can pick and choose parts and hit their spec targets in less than a year. That seems insanely ambitious to me.
mtgx 13y ago
They should try to get some carriers to put some money on that. They could buy hundreds or thousands at a time, if they want more diversity in their offering.
nobodysfool 13y ago
There aren't much in the way of specs here. The screen will likely be 1024x768 or similar, seeing as how they say that they are shooting for around 300ppi in a 4.5in screen. The battery technology that they say they want is unproven, produced only in sample quantities, and has issues with the electrolyte expanding to 4x it's size (which they say will be fixed via carbon nanotubes, the latest 'magic pixie dust'). I am pretty sure they will have an announcement later on saying that they had to switch battery technologies in order to source what they need. For $800 it's quite expensive. I imagine they could easily just buy a bunch Galaxy S4s and offer that with Ubuntu as an option... that way they wouldn't have to deal with certification and all that jazz. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but seriously people need to think about this before just handing out their money. My bet is one year from now if you had given them your money, there will be better phones out that make this one seem like a joke. Compare what they are offering to the Galaxy S4, the S4 will definitely have a better screen, it's running at 1.9ghz (will 2.1 or whatever is the fastest make much of a difference? probably not). A better battery may be great, but the S4 has great battery life, which will last almost all day, good enough for most people. I'd be surprised if I don't see batteries explode on this device if they do manage to ship with the new technology (and expensive) battery. The ram may be the one reason to purchase the device, but it would be a lot less expensive just to ask any of the vendors on Alibaba to up the ram to 4gb (as long as you are ordering in large quantities).
- devindotcom 13y ago
  300ppi at 4.5in would probably be 720p - that's what the First and M4/One mini have at 4.3 in for something like 330 ppi. That would be m y guess anyway. I'm more concerned with the promise of 4GB ram and 128GB storage. That's going to be very expensive. The highest end phones today cost more and half half or less of that. (I know, things get cheaper, but this isn't orders of 20 million, it's orders of 20,000)
  - voltagex_ 13y ago
    Finally, a phone that beats the storage I had in my iRiver H340 (with the extremely expensive 80GB Toshiba mini hard drive)
grey-area 13y ago
They've reached around $3.2m in their first day, so they're on track, though probably donations will slow down from now on till it nears the end. The price is pretty high, and this is not a mass market device in its current form - it's an interesting strategy to target the high end. Perhaps they see Apple as floundering in years to come, and want to take that slice of the market and work down? It's interesting that you talk about some kind of installation. Everyone with a desktop PC already has such an installation, and many people with laptops have one too - a screen and keyboard for when they're at home, and a laptop which plugs in there, or can be separated and used independently. Works for me. So I imagine the target market here is people who use laptops with a screen at home and would be happy with even more convenience and a smaller device to carry around. This probably isn't a realistic convergence device as it is so ambitious, at present it's more dream than reality, but one day we might all work this way. I find it more attractive to have a hard local store of my data than the alternative of trusting cloud providers with all my data and working from thin clients.

dkokelley 13y ago

I'm wondering if the ambitious goal of $32M is part of their strategy. Given that a higher goal is less likely to be met, I (and others who might consider backing) may be willing to adjust our risk function for the $600-800 such that we are more likely to back the project. Assuming that after 30 days only $20M is raised, then the outcome is as follows: 1: Nobody is actually charged for supporting the project 2: Other interested parties (phone manufacturers and carriers) will see that there is demand for a phone that doesn't even exist yet. These interested parties might consider reaching this market to differentiate from the current phone OS leaders. 3: Canonical still gets to see their OS in smartphones. Maybe I'm reaching at straws. I do believe them when they say that manufacturing at scale is expensive.

ealexhudson 13y ago
Yeah, it's quite possible they realise how unlikely the target is, and it could just be a way of attempting to demonstrate the market (given $830 is likely at one end of the bell-curve, it's a potentially interesting data point). I find it a bit baffling. I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market, but maybe there is a Nexus-like role for this hardware in terms of getting the ODMs to up their game. But, as a way of testing the market, I don't understand it. The FirefoxOS approach is much more appropriate, tbh, and if anything they need volume (which is going to come from the lower end of the market) not quality.
- oblique63 13y ago
  > I refuse to believe Canonical want to enter the hardware market I don't know, from all the design hints Canonical's been dropping in the last few years, it seems like they really are trying to place themselves as direct competitors to apple, however naive/overambitious that may sound. So a play for hardware wouldn't surprise me that much. I think this stunt would make much less sense if it were purely to advance an android/firefox-style mobile os strategy.
  - TheLegace 13y ago
    In the video Mark says that they're not making it for consumers and saying that they want other companies to do it and they will show them kind of thing. It doesn't sound to inspiring in the long term though.
    - oblique63 13y ago
      > they want other companies to do it and they will show them Isn't that what the iphone inadvertently did anyway though? If Edge succeeds, the logical consequence would be that other manufacturers would start to pay attention in one form or another, Canonical just seems to be upfront about the fact and is trying to presumably leverage it somehow. Apple's strategy is based around ios exclusivity on a limited set of 'high-end' devices though, so it's hard to predict what exactly Canonical is planning for after the Edge succeeds/fails. I'm fairly certain Shuttleworth is heavily inspired by the Apple playbook, but their hints at android-like distribution are admittedly somewhat confusing. It's almost like they want to do both modes of attack, but I'm not sure how that would work (nor how competing directly against android would succeed either for that matter). Only time will tell. Personally, I find the sheer fact that they're actually Open and trying something new to be quite inspiring on it's own. Long-term? That's anyone's guess, but I wouldn't exactly bet against them at this point, that's for sure.
- muyuu 13y ago
  I also thought Light Table was insanely over-ambitious for a 1-man software project and it got funded. Maybe Ubuntu can pull this off. If I had not very recently bought a high end smartphone I'd chip in. I might chip in anyway.
bryanlarsen 13y ago
I would have backed based on this theory if it was a Kickstarter project. Kickstarter uses Amazon and doesn't charge until the end of the drive. Indiegogo uses Paypal, and charges immediately, giving a refund if the drive fails. While both of these differences aren't quite showstoppers, they're enough that I didn't pull the trigger on something that seems highly unlikely to succeed. I wouldn't mind paying $600 for this thing if it actually happened, but I would mind having $600 sitting around in my rarely used paypal account.
- sspiff 13y ago
  In my experience, refunds on PayPal go back to your credit card. Am I wrong about this?
  - rlpb 13y ago
    From https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID=94023&m=SRE https://www.paypal.com/webapps/helpcenter/article/?articleID...: "If you paid with your debit card or credit card, your payment is refunded to that card."
  - bryanlarsen 13y ago
    I've had the opposite experience, which is why I'm bringing up this issue. However, my refund was processed as a payment to me rather than a refund, so it's quite possible that your experience is the more typical one.
  - jlgaddis 13y ago
    If you use a credit or debit card, yes. PayPal, however, does everything possible to (get you to) use ACH transfer from your bank account instead. In that case, I believe that you would end up with $600/$850 sitting in your PayPal account and withdrawing can be a PITA in some cases.
- dangoor 13y ago
  You could withdraw the $600... I do appreciate you pointing this difference out though, because it does mean that folks will have $600 (or $830) tied up in this from day 1 and not from day 31.
achiang 13y ago
Manufacturing is expensive. The vast majority of the $32M goes simply to manufacturing. The remainder covers taxes, fees, shipping, certification, and returns. It does not cover the cost of the development team's time.
- lsiebert 13y ago
  Money isn't static, and the interest isn't negligible. Assuming you can get 1 % interest per month on the 32,000,000 before paying it out, that is still 320k. They can hold it for 2-3 months and pay their developers easily.
  - Guvante 13y ago
    You can't get 1% interest risk free in a high-interest market, let alone the current one. If you try really hard you can get 1% a year without taking on risk. And you can't have any risk if you are going to be manufacturing phones with that money (sorry we don't have enough phones, we bet on Apple and their stock went down 20%).
    - YokoZar 13y ago
      US Government Treasury bonds have a 3.5% annual interest rate. I'm pretty sure that buying them does not require trying hard.
      - _delirium 13y ago
        The grandparent was talking about 1% per month, though. That would equate to (with compounding) a 12.5% annual interest rate, which no remotely safe financial instrument is paying.
      - Guvante 13y ago
        What bond has that high of an interest rate? I am seeing 0.3% annual rates for US bonds right now. (And that is for 2 year bonds, not very good for 1-3 month lags)

dubcanada 13y ago

One of the reasons they went with IndieGoGo vs KickStarter is probably that they know they may not reach $32M. So they'll take what they can (IndieGogo gives you what you make, vs kickstarter that you need to make more then you request in order to get it) and do what they can. As far as I am concerned they may have just typed in a random number in the millions as people like goals.

mobbom 13y ago
While this is possible with IndieGoGo, they selected to only receive funds if the project is fully funded. This is detailed under the "Contribute now" button.
- dubcanada 13y ago
  Hrm... you're right. I'm wondering why they would do that? Does it really take $32M to create a new phone for mass market?
  - DocG 13y ago
    at least. And it is "one run only" phone. This is for selling the whole production series. It is only around 40 000 phones. Most phones sell at least in millions.
    - lettergram 13y ago
      If 40,000 people are willing to fund the initial production going mainstream would be easy. I believe in the video they even said that if enough people were interested they could get more backing.
      - DocG 13y ago
        I think video said if this thing succeeds, then there might be similar future projects. If not, there wont be next edge or similar projects. "The Ubuntu Edge is an exclusive production run, available only through Indiegogo" But there is no going mainstream, it is the whole point. This is not the mainstream pc/mobile. Good quote from comment section: "It's a premier, demonstration platform, not a mass market device." -achiang I think what they are doing is awesome and comparison with formula 1 is pretty spot on. They are trying to build mobile with new approach, build it as PC.

DocG 13y ago

The first paragraph explains it. let me quote: "In the car industry, Formula 1 provides a commercial testbed for cutting-edge technologies. The Ubuntu Edge project aims to do the same for the mobile phone industry -- to provide a low-volume, high-technology platform, crowdfunded by enthusiasts and mobile computing professionals. A pioneering project that accelerates the adoption of new technologies and drives them down into the mainstream." It is not for you. If you want good phone, there are plenty out there to choose from. formula 1 car is impossible to use in everyday life. It has really specific place where it excels. Edge is probably medicore phone and medicore pc, but it is probably really good at being both at the same time. It is wrong approach to compare it to mobile users. Edit: quote from comment section: "It's a premier, demonstration platform, not a mass market device." -achiang

jfb 13y ago
It's an interesting project (not for me, personally, but hey, let a hundred flowers bloom and all that), but I think that they're overestimating the state of phone hardware commoditization, if they expect that they can pick and choose parts and hit their spec targets in less than a year. That seems insanely ambitious to me.

mtgx 13y ago

They should try to get some carriers to put some money on that. They could buy hundreds or thousands at a time, if they want more diversity in their offering.

nobodysfool 13y ago

There aren't much in the way of specs here. The screen will likely be 1024x768 or similar, seeing as how they say that they are shooting for around 300ppi in a 4.5in screen. The battery technology that they say they want is unproven, produced only in sample quantities, and has issues with the electrolyte expanding to 4x it's size (which they say will be fixed via carbon nanotubes, the latest 'magic pixie dust'). I am pretty sure they will have an announcement later on saying that they had to switch battery technologies in order to source what they need. For $800 it's quite expensive. I imagine they could easily just buy a bunch Galaxy S4s and offer that with Ubuntu as an option... that way they wouldn't have to deal with certification and all that jazz. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but seriously people need to think about this before just handing out their money. My bet is one year from now if you had given them your money, there will be better phones out that make this one seem like a joke. Compare what they are offering to the Galaxy S4, the S4 will definitely have a better screen, it's running at 1.9ghz (will 2.1 or whatever is the fastest make much of a difference? probably not). A better battery may be great, but the S4 has great battery life, which will last almost all day, good enough for most people. I'd be surprised if I don't see batteries explode on this device if they do manage to ship with the new technology (and expensive) battery. The ram may be the one reason to purchase the device, but it would be a lot less expensive just to ask any of the vendors on Alibaba to up the ram to 4gb (as long as you are ordering in large quantities).

devindotcom 13y ago
300ppi at 4.5in would probably be 720p - that's what the First and M4/One mini have at 4.3 in for something like 330 ppi. That would be m y guess anyway. I'm more concerned with the promise of 4GB ram and 128GB storage. That's going to be very expensive. The highest end phones today cost more and half half or less of that. (I know, things get cheaper, but this isn't orders of 20 million, it's orders of 20,000)
- voltagex_ 13y ago
  Finally, a phone that beats the storage I had in my iRiver H340 (with the extremely expensive 80GB Toshiba mini hard drive)

grey-area 13y ago

They've reached around $3.2m in their first day, so they're on track, though probably donations will slow down from now on till it nears the end. The price is pretty high, and this is not a mass market device in its current form - it's an interesting strategy to target the high end. Perhaps they see Apple as floundering in years to come, and want to take that slice of the market and work down? It's interesting that you talk about some kind of installation. Everyone with a desktop PC already has such an installation, and many people with laptops have one too - a screen and keyboard for when they're at home, and a laptop which plugs in there, or can be separated and used independently. Works for me. So I imagine the target market here is people who use laptops with a screen at home and would be happy with even more convenience and a smaller device to carry around. This probably isn't a realistic convergence device as it is so ambitious, at present it's more dream than reality, but one day we might all work this way. I find it more attractive to have a hard local store of my data than the alternative of trusting cloud providers with all my data and working from thin clients.