5 ms·

I hate to state the obvious rebuttal, but: maybe the programs were working? Maybe that's why Obama didn't cut them. Maybe he decided he couldn't be the guy t

by dhimes 13y ago

I hate to state the obvious rebuttal, but: maybe the programs were working? Maybe that's why Obama didn't cut them. Maybe he decided he couldn't be the guy to pull the plug and have $avg_fatalities people die every year. Maybe. On the other hand, you would think he would say so if that were the case.

ThomPete 13y ago
That is not the question. The question is a what price.
jonknee 13y ago
I'm sure he was told that if he ended the programs it would cost lives, but it's not like we had lot of terrorist deaths before the government threw out the 4th amendment without telling anyone. There were attacks before and after, there will be more in the future as well. Most terrorist attacks get stopped because they actually aren't very sophisticated (see the shoe or underwear bombers), not because the NSA has everyone's email.
- dhimes 13y ago
  Most terrorist attacks get stopped because they actually aren't very sophisticated Perhaps you are right, but some are stopped because of intelligence. It could be that the bad guys are getting more sophisticated, even though there are still lower-probability lone-wolf types out there.
- KMag 13y ago
  Just a side note: the Boston bombers and the Times Square bombers are much better examples. The shoe bomb plot was actually very sophisticated, planned and built by something like terrorism's version of Q. Luckily, they sent more of a Johnny English than a James Bond.
lukifer 13y ago
It's a no-win perception issue for Obama. If even a few Americans die in a terror attack, his administration looks weak (look at how badly Fox has gone after him on Benghazi). If he does "whatever is necessary", he looks like a warmonger with no respect for the Constitution. But people die in all sorts of preventable ways. Dropping the national speed limit would save hundreds or thousands of lives. So would nutritional subsidies for kids, or all other sorts of things we could spend our political capital on. But those things do not have the same broad support as anti-terrorism measures, because the public is not willing to pay the cost, even though more lives are at stake. You could say our fear of The Other comes from Bush's fear-mongering, or the shock of 9/11, or a genuine clash of civilizations, or just human nature. But whatever the origin, that irrational fear is the real root of our disproportionate reaction to the theatrical murder called "terrorism". Our culture has been conditioned to be afraid by reflex, and it has to end. The fear of death is the beginning of slavery.
- dhimes 13y ago
  This is probably completely naïve of me, but I would think that if he just came out and honestly said, "I couldn't be the guy to pull the plug once I saw how effective the programs are," then that would be a brilliant way to start the national conversation. Not only about spying, but Gitmo- which he has been very slow about closing.
  - lukifer 13y ago
    He basically said as much, though less directly, and without specifics: http://youtu.be/m8F99BT8QAA?t=6m0s http://youtu.be/m8F99BT8QAA?t=6m0s It's also telling how clumsily he's stumbling over his words. Whether Obama fears speaking freely for political reasons, security reasons, or just plain deception is something I can't answer. (And obviously, much of what he's saying is demonstrably false, or at least misleading. But it also wouldn't surprise me for the NSA to be misinforming the President.)
- warmwaffles 13y ago
  > Dropping the national speed limit would save hundreds or thousands of lives. Fine I'll bite. Where is this evidence?
  - VLM 13y ago
    A realistic fact based estimate is around one hundred, around 1 or 2 orders of magnitude lower. http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811753.pdf http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811753.pdf Around page 6, a little under 10K fatalities in 2011 somehow involved speeding. (about 1/3) Around page 7, 87% of fatalities involving speeding were not on interstate highways. So about 10% of about 10K is about 1K people died from driving "too fast" on the highway. Around page 7, around half of drivers who killed someone while speeding were drunk. so about 500 people were killed by sober drivers who were going over the current speed limit. Drunks are going to kill someone anyway, no matter what the law is. You can consider this a fixed constant death rate regardless of speed laws. In other words, if you raised the speed limit such that no one ever got cited for speeding during a fatal crash, aka we go total full motion autobahn, about 500 people would die legally instead of illegally. Of course a lot of this involves police high speed chases, driving too fast for conditions, suicide by car, road rage, mental illness, stuff like that. I feel confident that out of a total sample of about 500, a realistic change in speed limit up to perhaps 75 would probably kill at most 100 people. I think this is a overestimate, but feel confident it would not actually turn out to be 10x higher. This analysis pays no attention to the death toll from increased car exhaust fumes due to reduced mileage, or increased soldier death rates in the middle east due to needing to burn more oil, or any of the other secondary effects, which may very well be greater than the primary death toll, I really can't estimate those very well. For example, if you raised the death toll in Iraq by 20% on both sides to get 20% more oil, that would swamp the relatively minor increase in death toll on the interstates back home. This helps you identify political axes to grind... someone claiming "10" or "zero" is obviously distorting reality in one direction, and "100s" is obviously equally distorted in the other. Frankly I wouldn't be concerned. The odds of death by lightning are about 1 or 2 orders of magnitude higher. The odds of death by poor diet are around 5 orders higher. Death by poor exercise habits, probably the same around 5 orders higher. Higher highway speeds are not a very serious threat in the big picture of risks. I'd worry a lot more about "not talking a walk after dinner" or "drinking too much corn syrup"
ajays 13y ago
It's not the programs that prevented attacks; it's this magic stone that I have and pray to. It keeps "terrorists and other groups" at bay. But now, since I've divulged its existence, it may not be as effective.

by dhimes 13y ago

ThomPete 13y ago

That is not the question. The question is a what price.

jonknee 13y ago

I'm sure he was told that if he ended the programs it would cost lives, but it's not like we had lot of terrorist deaths before the government threw out the 4th amendment without telling anyone. There were attacks before and after, there will be more in the future as well. Most terrorist attacks get stopped because they actually aren't very sophisticated (see the shoe or underwear bombers), not because the NSA has everyone's email.

dhimes 13y ago
Most terrorist attacks get stopped because they actually aren't very sophisticated Perhaps you are right, but some are stopped because of intelligence. It could be that the bad guys are getting more sophisticated, even though there are still lower-probability lone-wolf types out there.
KMag 13y ago
Just a side note: the Boston bombers and the Times Square bombers are much better examples. The shoe bomb plot was actually very sophisticated, planned and built by something like terrorism's version of Q. Luckily, they sent more of a Johnny English than a James Bond.

lukifer 13y ago

It's a no-win perception issue for Obama. If even a few Americans die in a terror attack, his administration looks weak (look at how badly Fox has gone after him on Benghazi). If he does "whatever is necessary", he looks like a warmonger with no respect for the Constitution. But people die in all sorts of preventable ways. Dropping the national speed limit would save hundreds or thousands of lives. So would nutritional subsidies for kids, or all other sorts of things we could spend our political capital on. But those things do not have the same broad support as anti-terrorism measures, because the public is not willing to pay the cost, even though more lives are at stake. You could say our fear of The Other comes from Bush's fear-mongering, or the shock of 9/11, or a genuine clash of civilizations, or just human nature. But whatever the origin, that irrational fear is the real root of our disproportionate reaction to the theatrical murder called "terrorism". Our culture has been conditioned to be afraid by reflex, and it has to end. The fear of death is the beginning of slavery.

dhimes 13y ago
This is probably completely naïve of me, but I would think that if he just came out and honestly said, "I couldn't be the guy to pull the plug once I saw how effective the programs are," then that would be a brilliant way to start the national conversation. Not only about spying, but Gitmo- which he has been very slow about closing.
- lukifer 13y ago
  He basically said as much, though less directly, and without specifics: http://youtu.be/m8F99BT8QAA?t=6m0s http://youtu.be/m8F99BT8QAA?t=6m0s It's also telling how clumsily he's stumbling over his words. Whether Obama fears speaking freely for political reasons, security reasons, or just plain deception is something I can't answer. (And obviously, much of what he's saying is demonstrably false, or at least misleading. But it also wouldn't surprise me for the NSA to be misinforming the President.)
warmwaffles 13y ago
> Dropping the national speed limit would save hundreds or thousands of lives. Fine I'll bite. Where is this evidence?
- VLM 13y ago
  A realistic fact based estimate is around one hundred, around 1 or 2 orders of magnitude lower. http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811753.pdf http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811753.pdf Around page 6, a little under 10K fatalities in 2011 somehow involved speeding. (about 1/3) Around page 7, 87% of fatalities involving speeding were not on interstate highways. So about 10% of about 10K is about 1K people died from driving "too fast" on the highway. Around page 7, around half of drivers who killed someone while speeding were drunk. so about 500 people were killed by sober drivers who were going over the current speed limit. Drunks are going to kill someone anyway, no matter what the law is. You can consider this a fixed constant death rate regardless of speed laws. In other words, if you raised the speed limit such that no one ever got cited for speeding during a fatal crash, aka we go total full motion autobahn, about 500 people would die legally instead of illegally. Of course a lot of this involves police high speed chases, driving too fast for conditions, suicide by car, road rage, mental illness, stuff like that. I feel confident that out of a total sample of about 500, a realistic change in speed limit up to perhaps 75 would probably kill at most 100 people. I think this is a overestimate, but feel confident it would not actually turn out to be 10x higher. This analysis pays no attention to the death toll from increased car exhaust fumes due to reduced mileage, or increased soldier death rates in the middle east due to needing to burn more oil, or any of the other secondary effects, which may very well be greater than the primary death toll, I really can't estimate those very well. For example, if you raised the death toll in Iraq by 20% on both sides to get 20% more oil, that would swamp the relatively minor increase in death toll on the interstates back home. This helps you identify political axes to grind... someone claiming "10" or "zero" is obviously distorting reality in one direction, and "100s" is obviously equally distorted in the other. Frankly I wouldn't be concerned. The odds of death by lightning are about 1 or 2 orders of magnitude higher. The odds of death by poor diet are around 5 orders higher. Death by poor exercise habits, probably the same around 5 orders higher. Higher highway speeds are not a very serious threat in the big picture of risks. I'd worry a lot more about "not talking a walk after dinner" or "drinking too much corn syrup"

ajays 13y ago

It's not the programs that prevented attacks; it's this magic stone that I have and pray to. It keeps "terrorists and other groups" at bay. But now, since I've divulged its existence, it may not be as effective.