8 ms·

All this speculation reminds me of the hype surrounding the Segway launch. I recall it being being touted as a game-changer, a revolution in transportation that

by ddeck 13y ago

All this speculation reminds me of the hype surrounding the Segway launch. I recall it being being touted as a game-changer, a revolution in transportation that would change the way cities were built... [The Segway] will be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy (Dean Kamen)[1] John Doerr, predicted Segway would rack up $1 billion in sales faster than any company in history [1] Let's hope the Hyperloop fares better. [1] http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.03/segway.html http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.03/segway.html

Kurtz79 13y ago
The Segway hype was so generic it could have been anything: it didn't offer any concrete metric to justify it. A system allowing to travel LA to SF in 30 minutes, without the hassle involved with air travel, WOULD be revolutionary, regardless of how good or bad is the marketing department of its company.
- jessriedel 13y ago
  If you believe Paul Graham (which in this case I do), the thing that killed the Segway was that you looked like a smug jerk on one. http://www.paulgraham.com/segway.html http://www.paulgraham.com/segway.html No one predicted this would be the problem, and indeed most people still haven't come to Graham's conclusion. In that sense, concrete metrics are irrelevant. The hyperloop is just as likely a priori to have some sort of similar fatal flaw. This is the problem with getting too excited about any new particular device; there's too much that can go wrong between zero and revolutionary.
  - panacea 13y ago
    I truly think Google's Glass will suffer a similar fate... at least in it's present incarnation.
    - ddeck 13y ago
      Funny you should mention glass. Doerr's firm is backing it too through the Glass Collective. Doerr has been equally bullish about Google Glass. Still, Glass is fast developing a stigma, and it’s not even on the market yet: It’s been called a “Segway for your face.” [1] [1] http://pandodaily.com/2013/05/23/john-doerr-doesnt-think-google-glass-is-like-the-segway/ http://pandodaily.com/2013/05/23/john-doerr-doesnt-think-goo...
  - TeMPOraL 13y ago
    If this is truly the main reason, then I'm sad that we live in the world full of assholes. > But when he rides the Segwell, they shout abuse from their cars: "Too lazy to walk, ya fuckin homo?" > Why do Segways provoke this reaction? The reason you look like a dork riding a Segway is that you look smug. You don't seem to be working hard enough. What is wrong with people?
    - easytiger 13y ago
      Another main reason is that they can't be used on pavements nor on roads
      - TeMPOraL 13y ago
        Can't or are not allowed to? Because Segway sightseeing trips are quite popular in big european cities, and from what I can tell, the devices works very well on both roads and pavements.
        T-hawk 13y ago
        Not allowed to, in many US localities. Segways are too fast for sidewalks, posing danger to pedestrians. But they're not fast enough to merge with car traffic on a road. Where do they travel in European cities? Bicycle paths?
        TeMPOraL 13y ago
        Pavement.
        freehunter 13y ago
        Chicago does Segway tours through the city.
        mikeevans 13y ago
        DC does too.
  - Kurtz79 13y ago
    I disagree with pg on this one. The first mobile phone users looked like smug jerks and show offs as well (What, are you too lazy to walk to a wired phone ? Are you so important that people must be able to contact you at any time ?) , yet the functionality offered was so useful that in the end everybody followed suit.
    - vidarh 13y ago
      But you give a major difference: the functionality it offered was so useful. While I'd love a Segway, it's usefulness is much less than my cellphone to me. Maybe if cities had been redesigned around it, things would be different For me, the appeal is that I live a 20 minute walk from the train station I use for my commutes. A lot of the time I don't mind that walk, or I take the bus. I don't have a car. A Segway would make the bus uninteresting except in really bad weather - it'd be about as fast and not tie me to the bus schedule. It'd also make dragging shopping around easier. But those are slight conveniences, and conveniences that are even less of a deal for someone with a car (who'd just drive their shopping home), and that has become less important as time has passed: These days I have a shortcut to a countdown display for my local bus stops on my phone, so while I sometimes have to wait, when leaving home I can wait in my living room and walk out just in time for the bus, and when returning I always know if it's worth waiting for the bus or starting to walk or flag down a taxi. And we get the shopping delivered to our door step, in a one hour time slot every week, and if we forget to order, they automatically put together an order that is ok based on our usual order pattern, so grocery shopping is totally off my radar. I still think it'd be great if Segway's get to the point where they become accepted, and maybe they still can (around London, there's tons of people on silly looking kick scooters, some of which are motorized, so clearly some people are prepared for alternatives...). But they'd first become revolutionary if they reach a sufficient level of use displacing cars that it'd change city cores, and that, I'm afraid would take a miracle or a lot of time.
      - neutronicus 13y ago
        The other problem is that a bike and a big-ass backpack are pretty much strictly faster.
  - rev_null 13y ago
    I think the thing that really killed the Segway was the price. It's much more expensive than a bike or motorcycle and transports fewer people than a car. If they were priced under $1000, Segways would probably be ubiquitous by now.
  - BHSPitMonkey 13y ago
    Wonder why that didn't kill the iPad? :)
InclinedPlane 13y ago
The Segway was demonstrably inferior to commonplace alternatives on simple metrics alone: speed, capacity, cost, safety, comfort. It was only hyped because it was "cool". If the hyperloop, however it works, can duplicate the capabilities of a high speed rail system in terms of passenger throughput, speed, and waiting time and do so safely at much lower cost then even if was the uncoolest thing in the world it would still be of immense practical benefit.
- jjindev 13y ago
  High speed anything meets the Concorde problem - increasing cost for diminishing returns in trip time.
  - duaneb 13y ago
    Yea, but any excuse to avoid the TSA.
    - shabble 13y ago
      what are the implications of serious damage to the pipe/waveguide? Either explosives from the inside or outside, or just damaging the support struts. If it's using the air-hockey principle, I'd expect reduced forward pressure to below the limit on which the vehicle can float, so it starts to skid along the ground, hopefully with enough inter-car spacing that you don't get a pileup. A less catastrophic situation might be, what happens if the pipe has a relatively minor leak due to subsidence or whatever? Just a loss of efficiency, or loss of function?
    - aneth4 13y ago
      Why is this always brought up? I fly several times a month. While the TSA is an annoyance and has silly policies, they have always been curteous and efficient. The only consideration I have for the TSA is that I can't bring knives on the plane and I need an extra 15 minutes for the line. Other than that they are innocuous to me.
      - 13y ago

by ddeck 13y ago

Kurtz79 13y ago

The Segway hype was so generic it could have been anything: it didn't offer any concrete metric to justify it. A system allowing to travel LA to SF in 30 minutes, without the hassle involved with air travel, WOULD be revolutionary, regardless of how good or bad is the marketing department of its company.

jessriedel 13y ago
If you believe Paul Graham (which in this case I do), the thing that killed the Segway was that you looked like a smug jerk on one. http://www.paulgraham.com/segway.html http://www.paulgraham.com/segway.html No one predicted this would be the problem, and indeed most people still haven't come to Graham's conclusion. In that sense, concrete metrics are irrelevant. The hyperloop is just as likely a priori to have some sort of similar fatal flaw. This is the problem with getting too excited about any new particular device; there's too much that can go wrong between zero and revolutionary.
- panacea 13y ago
  I truly think Google's Glass will suffer a similar fate... at least in it's present incarnation.
  - ddeck 13y ago
    Funny you should mention glass. Doerr's firm is backing it too through the Glass Collective. Doerr has been equally bullish about Google Glass. Still, Glass is fast developing a stigma, and it’s not even on the market yet: It’s been called a “Segway for your face.” [1] [1] http://pandodaily.com/2013/05/23/john-doerr-doesnt-think-google-glass-is-like-the-segway/ http://pandodaily.com/2013/05/23/john-doerr-doesnt-think-goo...
- TeMPOraL 13y ago
  If this is truly the main reason, then I'm sad that we live in the world full of assholes. > But when he rides the Segwell, they shout abuse from their cars: "Too lazy to walk, ya fuckin homo?" > Why do Segways provoke this reaction? The reason you look like a dork riding a Segway is that you look smug. You don't seem to be working hard enough. What is wrong with people?
  - easytiger 13y ago
    Another main reason is that they can't be used on pavements nor on roads
    - TeMPOraL 13y ago
      Can't or are not allowed to? Because Segway sightseeing trips are quite popular in big european cities, and from what I can tell, the devices works very well on both roads and pavements.
      - T-hawk 13y ago
        Not allowed to, in many US localities. Segways are too fast for sidewalks, posing danger to pedestrians. But they're not fast enough to merge with car traffic on a road. Where do they travel in European cities? Bicycle paths?
        TeMPOraL 13y ago
        Pavement.
        freehunter 13y ago
        Chicago does Segway tours through the city.
        mikeevans 13y ago
        DC does too.
- Kurtz79 13y ago
  I disagree with pg on this one. The first mobile phone users looked like smug jerks and show offs as well (What, are you too lazy to walk to a wired phone ? Are you so important that people must be able to contact you at any time ?) , yet the functionality offered was so useful that in the end everybody followed suit.
  - vidarh 13y ago
    But you give a major difference: the functionality it offered was so useful. While I'd love a Segway, it's usefulness is much less than my cellphone to me. Maybe if cities had been redesigned around it, things would be different For me, the appeal is that I live a 20 minute walk from the train station I use for my commutes. A lot of the time I don't mind that walk, or I take the bus. I don't have a car. A Segway would make the bus uninteresting except in really bad weather - it'd be about as fast and not tie me to the bus schedule. It'd also make dragging shopping around easier. But those are slight conveniences, and conveniences that are even less of a deal for someone with a car (who'd just drive their shopping home), and that has become less important as time has passed: These days I have a shortcut to a countdown display for my local bus stops on my phone, so while I sometimes have to wait, when leaving home I can wait in my living room and walk out just in time for the bus, and when returning I always know if it's worth waiting for the bus or starting to walk or flag down a taxi. And we get the shopping delivered to our door step, in a one hour time slot every week, and if we forget to order, they automatically put together an order that is ok based on our usual order pattern, so grocery shopping is totally off my radar. I still think it'd be great if Segway's get to the point where they become accepted, and maybe they still can (around London, there's tons of people on silly looking kick scooters, some of which are motorized, so clearly some people are prepared for alternatives...). But they'd first become revolutionary if they reach a sufficient level of use displacing cars that it'd change city cores, and that, I'm afraid would take a miracle or a lot of time.
    - neutronicus 13y ago
      The other problem is that a bike and a big-ass backpack are pretty much strictly faster.
- rev_null 13y ago
  I think the thing that really killed the Segway was the price. It's much more expensive than a bike or motorcycle and transports fewer people than a car. If they were priced under $1000, Segways would probably be ubiquitous by now.
- BHSPitMonkey 13y ago
  Wonder why that didn't kill the iPad? :)

InclinedPlane 13y ago

The Segway was demonstrably inferior to commonplace alternatives on simple metrics alone: speed, capacity, cost, safety, comfort. It was only hyped because it was "cool". If the hyperloop, however it works, can duplicate the capabilities of a high speed rail system in terms of passenger throughput, speed, and waiting time and do so safely at much lower cost then even if was the uncoolest thing in the world it would still be of immense practical benefit.

jjindev 13y ago
High speed anything meets the Concorde problem - increasing cost for diminishing returns in trip time.
- duaneb 13y ago
  Yea, but any excuse to avoid the TSA.
  - shabble 13y ago
    what are the implications of serious damage to the pipe/waveguide? Either explosives from the inside or outside, or just damaging the support struts. If it's using the air-hockey principle, I'd expect reduced forward pressure to below the limit on which the vehicle can float, so it starts to skid along the ground, hopefully with enough inter-car spacing that you don't get a pileup. A less catastrophic situation might be, what happens if the pipe has a relatively minor leak due to subsidence or whatever? Just a loss of efficiency, or loss of function?
  - aneth4 13y ago
    Why is this always brought up? I fly several times a month. While the TSA is an annoyance and has silly policies, they have always been curteous and efficient. The only consideration I have for the TSA is that I can't bring knives on the plane and I need an extra 15 minutes for the line. Other than that they are innocuous to me.
    - 13y ago