3 ms·

Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?

3 points by devasiajoseph 13y ago

ColinWright 13y ago
This question has been asked before - previous replies here on HN include: brg: Because software development is an act of invention. While experience and education often tell us that something is possible to accomplish, the route to the end is unknown. The metaphor Michael Wolfe provides is good. But software scheduling isn't so much about diversions and stumbles as it is about the trials of invention and artisanship.[0] zoowar: It doesn't matter what estimate software developers make, program management sets arbitrary release dates.[1] (Typos fixed) More than one person here referred to Michael Wolfe's answer. And for reference, here are some of the submissions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6033335 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6033335 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6028623 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6028623 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6024765 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6024765 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3808866 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3808866 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743048 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743048 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3598325 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3598325 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3588950 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3588950 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3530928 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3530928 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3528809 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3528809 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3527970 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3527970 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3521393 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3521393 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3520585 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3520585 ---- [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535010 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535010 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743088 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743088

3 points by devasiajoseph 13y ago

This question has been asked before - previous replies here on HN include: brg: Because software development is an act of invention. While experience and education often tell us that something is possible to accomplish, the route to the end is unknown. The metaphor Michael Wolfe provides is good. But software scheduling isn't so much about diversions and stumbles as it is about the trials of invention and artisanship.[0] zoowar: It doesn't matter what estimate software developers make, program management sets arbitrary release dates.[1] (Typos fixed) More than one person here referred to Michael Wolfe's answer. And for reference, here are some of the submissions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6033335 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6033335 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6028623 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6028623 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6024765 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6024765 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3808866 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3808866 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743048 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743048 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3598325 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3598325 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3588950 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3588950 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535100 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3530928 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3530928 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3528809 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3528809 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3527970 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3527970 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3521393 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3521393 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3520585 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3520585 ---- [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535010 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3535010 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743088 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3743088