What I found most worrisome about the NYT piece was the idea that "the payoff for a successful Phase 3 trial can be so enormous that drug makers will often roll

What I found most worrisome about the NYT piece was the idea that "the payoff for a successful Phase 3 trial can be so enormous that drug makers will often roll the dice". Now, IANAStatistician but from what I understand there's an inherent (small) chance of any given trial showing a drug is effective. Wouldn't that mean that since there's such an incentive to test unpromising drugs, it's more likely some would get through by chance and get to the market?