3 ms·
High-impact low frequency stuff is always hard to discuss, it always devolves into two camps accusing each other of exaggerating or understating the danger. On
by brownbat 13y ago
High-impact low frequency stuff is always hard to discuss, it always devolves into two camps accusing each other of exaggerating or understating the danger.
One of the more productive approaches you can take to sidestep all that is to look at mitigation strategies that help against other types of harm. So, sure, putting every long line in a Faraday cage is probably a waste of money. But it wouldn't be a bad idea to make sure there's some sort of ready supply of large transformers.
The major transformers aren't just costly, they have a long lead time, and there are a handful of unlikely events that can wipe a lot of them all at once. (And some more likely events that take them out a few at a time.)
One complicating factor is that for every 10 transformers, there are probably 9 designs, you pretty much design these things from scratch each time.
Some manufacturers can repurpose pre-owned transformers... it's not cheap, but it might be faster than building a new one from scratch. The biggest obstacle to that approach is just knowing what's out there to be repurposed.
NERC's trying to maintain a spare equipment database to help the industry figure that out, but it's voluntary, so it's not clear how comprehensive it will be.
I thought there was a mobile transformer supply being maintained by the industry too, but can't find reference to it at this time... maybe the spare equipment database is as far as they've gotten.
NY Times coverage of a quick transformer replacement drill last year:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/energy-environment/electric-industry-runs-transformer-replacement-test.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/energy-environmen...
DOE paper on large power transformer replacement hurdles:
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transformer%20Study%20-%20June%202012_0.pdf http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Large%20Power%20Transform...
NERC's outline for the spare equipment database:
http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/sedtf/SEDTF_Report_Draft_PC_Meeting_2.pdf http://www.nerc.com/docs/pc/sedtf/SEDTF_Report_Draft_PC_Meet...
If generators get knocked out, maybe get one of these Russian nuclear power stations to float by and hook up to the grid:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_floating_nuclear_power_station http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_floating_nuclear_power_...
- ChuckMcM 13y agoThis is the rub isn't it. If you are a public utility and you have a dozen brand new transformers sitting in a warehouse you've never used, it can be presented as a 'big scandal.' That said, while the typical production of things like transformers is long (since the manufacturer is optimizing for the maximum of the materials and warehouse space) emergency manufacturing is "fast" (as in start today and in a month we've got the raw materials, and 14 days later the first transformer comes off the line and they keep coming as long as we feed them materials). Will it impact everyone horribly? Sure. Will it be expensive and disruptive? That too. But we have proven that given the incentive to do so, both the US and Chinese manufacturing sectors can do extraordinary things. So given that, nobody is willing to spend the money to look "prepared" if the "event" isn't going to happen while they can still take credit for it.