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#2 simply will not happen. The best of the best have no concern for what college costs because of scholarships. They will never be going anywhere but colleges

#2 simply will not happen. The best of the best have no concern for what college costs because of scholarships. They will never be going anywhere but colleges because there is no reason to go a cheap school if you can go free to the college of your choice. The trade schools are then left picking from who is left, and no matter what they do their best will not match the colleges bests because of time and raw talent. Thus the trade school will never surpass colleges in reputation. They will not attract that top talent (positive feedback loop!) People with college degrees have a vested interested in keeping them valuable and so will always be biased towards the college degree making it even harder for trade schools. So with that landscape in front of them, middle of the road students will logically go to regular college instead of trade schools whenever possible so that they are not disadvantaged. These people actually get more value out of their degree than the best of the best. The best of the best would be able to work their way into jobs regardless of education, but the average person needs the credentials to boost them up. The only bubble that could burst are overly expensive private schools. You can go in-state to a public school for less than $30k a year including all living expenses. Anything beyond that would be in danger of losing ground to ever expanding public state schools. I think that will ultimately be the real solution - cheaper, larger, 4 year public schools and fewer people taking out loans for $50k a year private liberal arts colleges.

ZachPruckowski 18y ago
The best and the brightest (let's say 16%^) are going to go to college because of scholarships, etc. But as to the other 80% of high school graduates? Right now, 65-70% of high school graduates are going to college. That means that 49-54% of the college population isn't "the Best and the Brightest", and can't count on scholarships to anything but lower-tier schools. While public schools are cheap now, at a tuition increase rate of 6%, those tuitions are doubling every 12 years. At those rates, the tuition of a child born today will be 3.2x current tuition. We've got to do something, because 70% of the country simply won't be able to afford to send their child to college at those sorts of prices, especially with the earning power advantage disappearing. As it is, you have to plan years in advance for college. Doubling the costs is going to make it impossible for at least some Americans to go to traditional college. ^ - 16% is one or more standard deviations above the mean, which means 1230+ on the old SAT, or 115+ IQ, to give you an idea.

ZachPruckowski 18y ago

The best and the brightest (let's say 16%^) are going to go to college because of scholarships, etc. But as to the other 80% of high school graduates? Right now, 65-70% of high school graduates are going to college. That means that 49-54% of the college population isn't "the Best and the Brightest", and can't count on scholarships to anything but lower-tier schools. While public schools are cheap now, at a tuition increase rate of 6%, those tuitions are doubling every 12 years. At those rates, the tuition of a child born today will be 3.2x current tuition. We've got to do something, because 70% of the country simply won't be able to afford to send their child to college at those sorts of prices, especially with the earning power advantage disappearing. As it is, you have to plan years in advance for college. Doubling the costs is going to make it impossible for at least some Americans to go to traditional college. ^ - 16% is one or more standard deviations above the mean, which means 1230+ on the old SAT, or 115+ IQ, to give you an idea.