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Is the increase in students taking advance placement tests a "bubble" or "trend"? The article makes a good argument in favour a bubble. Others would argue it

by dxjones 17y ago

Is the increase in students taking advance placement tests a "bubble" or "trend"? The article makes a good argument in favour a bubble. Others would argue it is a trend, ... since enrolment for bachelors degrees is up, and there is growth in graduate enrolment too. It is only a "bubble" if it is unsustainable and going to collapse. Do we really think there will a sudden and large decrease in college enrolment? Empty lecture rooms? Idle professors? I doubt it. It would be ok if fewer students took the AP test. If that's the only place there's a bubble, ... no big deal.

byrneseyeview 17y ago
He's measuring the education bubble by looking at AP scores. The way people talk about education now makes it sound like a bubble: people don't say "What is the minimum amount of schooling needed to make a contribution to society?" but instead say something more like "How can we increase the amount of schooling each person gets?" Which is fairly similar to what happens in lots of other bubbles -- we go from "What is the right price?" to "How do we get a higher price?"
- ZachPruckowski 17y ago
  Another sign of a bubble is that a factor is ignored in the pursuit of something. Everything looks great until that factor (mortgage defaults, non-sustainability of business plans, systemic risk, etc.) rears its ugly head and pops the bubble. The focus on more schooling was originally based on the desire to allow people to be upwardly mobile economically. However, what is happening is that the current system is making a college degree a given for a middle-class job. You can no longer get a middle-class job through an apprenticeship or a trade school. You have to go to a 4-year college. As a result, economic (and social) mobility has been pinned entirely on "did you go to college".
ZachPruckowski 17y ago
This is an education bubble. It's an education bubble because the more people who go to college, the less valuable a Bachelor's degree is. To get the top jobs, you need to have gone to a top school, or you need to have a postgraduate degree. With the value of a Bachelor's degree declining as tuition rises dramatically, college will soon become "not worth it". At that point, one of several things will happen: 1) College simply becomes accepted as "mandatory education" in the same way that high school is now, and a college degree is seen as worth what a high school diploma is now. 2) More and more people swear off colleges for more useful "trade schools" that are cheaper than college and better prepare them for work in a specific sector. 3) We have a great education reorganization, where we push a lot of the "liberal arts education" burden back on high schools (and tighten diploma requirements). This restores the value of a college degree while making high school graduation actually mean something. I'm not an intellectual elitist. If this increase in AP tests and going to (and graduating from) college was because people were actually getting smarter, I'd be thrilled. But it seems to be the case that "more people going to college" is a result of our culture pushing people into college, which is actually bad for them. It's getting harder and harder to find a middle class job that doesn't involve 4+ years of college (and the attendant expenses and loans). The end result is people need 4 more years of education to get the same sorts (economically) of jobs people 40-50 years ago could get without college.
- dxjones 17y ago
  It's not a bubble if it doesn't burst. I think it is a trend. As you point out, a college degree is the new high school diploma. (and the MSc is the new BSc). We are not going to step backwards on this. There will be no burst. Hence, it is not a bubble.
- krschultz 17y ago
  #2 simply will not happen. The best of the best have no concern for what college costs because of scholarships. They will never be going anywhere but colleges because there is no reason to go a cheap school if you can go free to the college of your choice. The trade schools are then left picking from who is left, and no matter what they do their best will not match the colleges bests because of time and raw talent. Thus the trade school will never surpass colleges in reputation. They will not attract that top talent (positive feedback loop!) People with college degrees have a vested interested in keeping them valuable and so will always be biased towards the college degree making it even harder for trade schools. So with that landscape in front of them, middle of the road students will logically go to regular college instead of trade schools whenever possible so that they are not disadvantaged. These people actually get more value out of their degree than the best of the best. The best of the best would be able to work their way into jobs regardless of education, but the average person needs the credentials to boost them up. The only bubble that could burst are overly expensive private schools. You can go in-state to a public school for less than $30k a year including all living expenses. Anything beyond that would be in danger of losing ground to ever expanding public state schools. I think that will ultimately be the real solution - cheaper, larger, 4 year public schools and fewer people taking out loans for $50k a year private liberal arts colleges.
  - ZachPruckowski 17y ago
    The best and the brightest (let's say 16%^) are going to go to college because of scholarships, etc. But as to the other 80% of high school graduates? Right now, 65-70% of high school graduates are going to college. That means that 49-54% of the college population isn't "the Best and the Brightest", and can't count on scholarships to anything but lower-tier schools. While public schools are cheap now, at a tuition increase rate of 6%, those tuitions are doubling every 12 years. At those rates, the tuition of a child born today will be 3.2x current tuition. We've got to do something, because 70% of the country simply won't be able to afford to send their child to college at those sorts of prices, especially with the earning power advantage disappearing. As it is, you have to plan years in advance for college. Doubling the costs is going to make it impossible for at least some Americans to go to traditional college. ^ - 16% is one or more standard deviations above the mean, which means 1230+ on the old SAT, or 115+ IQ, to give you an idea.

by dxjones 17y ago

byrneseyeview 17y ago

He's measuring the education bubble by looking at AP scores. The way people talk about education now makes it sound like a bubble: people don't say "What is the minimum amount of schooling needed to make a contribution to society?" but instead say something more like "How can we increase the amount of schooling each person gets?" Which is fairly similar to what happens in lots of other bubbles -- we go from "What is the right price?" to "How do we get a higher price?"

ZachPruckowski 17y ago
Another sign of a bubble is that a factor is ignored in the pursuit of something. Everything looks great until that factor (mortgage defaults, non-sustainability of business plans, systemic risk, etc.) rears its ugly head and pops the bubble. The focus on more schooling was originally based on the desire to allow people to be upwardly mobile economically. However, what is happening is that the current system is making a college degree a given for a middle-class job. You can no longer get a middle-class job through an apprenticeship or a trade school. You have to go to a 4-year college. As a result, economic (and social) mobility has been pinned entirely on "did you go to college".

ZachPruckowski 17y ago

This is an education bubble. It's an education bubble because the more people who go to college, the less valuable a Bachelor's degree is. To get the top jobs, you need to have gone to a top school, or you need to have a postgraduate degree. With the value of a Bachelor's degree declining as tuition rises dramatically, college will soon become "not worth it". At that point, one of several things will happen: 1) College simply becomes accepted as "mandatory education" in the same way that high school is now, and a college degree is seen as worth what a high school diploma is now. 2) More and more people swear off colleges for more useful "trade schools" that are cheaper than college and better prepare them for work in a specific sector. 3) We have a great education reorganization, where we push a lot of the "liberal arts education" burden back on high schools (and tighten diploma requirements). This restores the value of a college degree while making high school graduation actually mean something. I'm not an intellectual elitist. If this increase in AP tests and going to (and graduating from) college was because people were actually getting smarter, I'd be thrilled. But it seems to be the case that "more people going to college" is a result of our culture pushing people into college, which is actually bad for them. It's getting harder and harder to find a middle class job that doesn't involve 4+ years of college (and the attendant expenses and loans). The end result is people need 4 more years of education to get the same sorts (economically) of jobs people 40-50 years ago could get without college.

dxjones 17y ago
It's not a bubble if it doesn't burst. I think it is a trend. As you point out, a college degree is the new high school diploma. (and the MSc is the new BSc). We are not going to step backwards on this. There will be no burst. Hence, it is not a bubble.
krschultz 17y ago
#2 simply will not happen. The best of the best have no concern for what college costs because of scholarships. They will never be going anywhere but colleges because there is no reason to go a cheap school if you can go free to the college of your choice. The trade schools are then left picking from who is left, and no matter what they do their best will not match the colleges bests because of time and raw talent. Thus the trade school will never surpass colleges in reputation. They will not attract that top talent (positive feedback loop!) People with college degrees have a vested interested in keeping them valuable and so will always be biased towards the college degree making it even harder for trade schools. So with that landscape in front of them, middle of the road students will logically go to regular college instead of trade schools whenever possible so that they are not disadvantaged. These people actually get more value out of their degree than the best of the best. The best of the best would be able to work their way into jobs regardless of education, but the average person needs the credentials to boost them up. The only bubble that could burst are overly expensive private schools. You can go in-state to a public school for less than $30k a year including all living expenses. Anything beyond that would be in danger of losing ground to ever expanding public state schools. I think that will ultimately be the real solution - cheaper, larger, 4 year public schools and fewer people taking out loans for $50k a year private liberal arts colleges.
- ZachPruckowski 17y ago
  The best and the brightest (let's say 16%^) are going to go to college because of scholarships, etc. But as to the other 80% of high school graduates? Right now, 65-70% of high school graduates are going to college. That means that 49-54% of the college population isn't "the Best and the Brightest", and can't count on scholarships to anything but lower-tier schools. While public schools are cheap now, at a tuition increase rate of 6%, those tuitions are doubling every 12 years. At those rates, the tuition of a child born today will be 3.2x current tuition. We've got to do something, because 70% of the country simply won't be able to afford to send their child to college at those sorts of prices, especially with the earning power advantage disappearing. As it is, you have to plan years in advance for college. Doubling the costs is going to make it impossible for at least some Americans to go to traditional college. ^ - 16% is one or more standard deviations above the mean, which means 1230+ on the old SAT, or 115+ IQ, to give you an idea.