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> naive people who have never learned about experimental design, or have never learned the concept of correlation, also make useful judgments on the causal mode
by radarsat1 13y ago
> naive people who have never learned about experimental design, or have never learned the concept of correlation, also make useful judgments on the causal model behind ordinary problems and events.
They also are often... racist. Or hold whatever other stereotypes to heart. Racism is just a good example of an extreme position to hold which is often due to assumptions of causality.
"Lots of minorities are in prison. There is a high correlation between being a minority and being in prison. Therefore being a minority leads to being a criminal."
This completely ignores external reasons why minorities might end up in prison more often than others. For instance, it could be that minorities have an equal amount of criminal activity as the general population, but are more likely to end up in prison because of it. Correlation does not imply causation.
I think the number of social issues that arise due to assumptions of causation is quite high, actually, and often leads to poor decision making in policy. That is why it is "dangerous."