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> I can't give you a particular example in form of "job A replaced by robots, workers can't move anywhere else", because so far we've been very efficient at rea

by cheald 13y ago

> I can't give you a particular example in form of "job A replaced by robots, workers can't move anywhere else", because so far we've been very efficient at reallocating labor. Surely it makes sense to be able to cite examples of how we are failing to reallocate labor before complaining that we're not able to reallocate labor.

TeMPOraL 13y ago
You're right. I can give you a fair share of personal anecdotes and general social lore related to rising unemployment for STEM-or-finance-educated people. I can point to first principles and proofs by enumeration. I can't provide examples of "elimination of an entire class of human skill and subsequent failure to move labour up the skill ladder" because this transformation is - I believe - underway, not yet finished. Regarding the "skill class elimination", as far as I have read, basic manufacturing is already done; i.e. it's not completely automated only because robots are still a bit more expensive than low-wage workers. But even in China this seems to be changing (in favour of robots).
- cheald 13y ago
  Personal anecdotes and social lore make for pretty crappy science. I would love you to point me at first principles and proofs by enumeration. What I see, in looking at the numbers published by the government, is that the number of jobs has been consistently tracking with labor force since they started measuring it in 1925. If automation were wrecking jobs and making people unemployable, I'd expect that the 20th century - the century in which the human race made more significant technological advances than during the rest of human history combined - to have resulted in a consistent decrease in percentage of the employed workforce. Instead, we see that no such widening has occurred. There is certainly an argument to be made that people are being forced out of factory jobs and into foodservice jobs or whatnot, but I can't see any empirical evidence for the assertion that we're actually innovating ourselves out of the opportunity to work.
  - ihateloggingin 13y ago
    The 20th century also saw the introduction of labor law, working hours plummet, welfare state, etc..
- ihateloggingin 13y ago
  > I can't provide examples of "elimination of an entire class of human skill and subsequent failure to move labour up the skill ladder" I can. Secretaries.

by cheald 13y ago

TeMPOraL 13y ago

You're right. I can give you a fair share of personal anecdotes and general social lore related to rising unemployment for STEM-or-finance-educated people. I can point to first principles and proofs by enumeration. I can't provide examples of "elimination of an entire class of human skill and subsequent failure to move labour up the skill ladder" because this transformation is - I believe - underway, not yet finished. Regarding the "skill class elimination", as far as I have read, basic manufacturing is already done; i.e. it's not completely automated only because robots are still a bit more expensive than low-wage workers. But even in China this seems to be changing (in favour of robots).

cheald 13y ago
Personal anecdotes and social lore make for pretty crappy science. I would love you to point me at first principles and proofs by enumeration. What I see, in looking at the numbers published by the government, is that the number of jobs has been consistently tracking with labor force since they started measuring it in 1925. If automation were wrecking jobs and making people unemployable, I'd expect that the 20th century - the century in which the human race made more significant technological advances than during the rest of human history combined - to have resulted in a consistent decrease in percentage of the employed workforce. Instead, we see that no such widening has occurred. There is certainly an argument to be made that people are being forced out of factory jobs and into foodservice jobs or whatnot, but I can't see any empirical evidence for the assertion that we're actually innovating ourselves out of the opportunity to work.
- ihateloggingin 13y ago
  The 20th century also saw the introduction of labor law, working hours plummet, welfare state, etc..
ihateloggingin 13y ago
> I can't provide examples of "elimination of an entire class of human skill and subsequent failure to move labour up the skill ladder" I can. Secretaries.