6 ms·

Five consecutive quarters of sliding PC sales mark a new industry record

33 points by shawndumas 13y ago

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
- arbuge 13y ago
  I fully agree. I would never dream of giving up my laptop for my tablet - I find them both indispensable. I don't personally know anyone who feels differently on the subject either. However my 5 year old laptop works pretty much just as well as my 1 year old one for all practical purposes. That's the issue right there...
  - iyulaev 13y ago
    For myself (and most engineers I know) the tablet vs laptop issue is a no-brainer. I depend on my laptop for my livelihood. The tablet is more convenient for reading and such but it is a content consumption device. The laptop can be used (slightly more awkwardly) as a consumption device but is also a creation device; I mostly only get paid for the latter.
    - stephengillie 13y ago
      I wish the tablet/laptop convertible had caught on for exactly this reason. They've gotten somewhat better over the past 13 years: Acer Travelmate C100 (2000) -- the first tablet convertible, shipped with "Windows XP Tablet Edition", which was difficult to find otherwise. - http://www.cnet.com/laptops/acer-travelmate-c100-tablet/4505-3121_7-20447681.html http://www.cnet.com/laptops/acer-travelmate-c100-tablet/4505... HP Pavilion tx2500 (2007) -- a recent tablet convertible that could almost be viable today. The pen input was amazing to use in Office and other places. - http://www.tabletpcreview.com/default.asp?newsID=1217 http://www.tabletpcreview.com/default.asp?newsID=1217 Microsoft Surface (2013) -- The big update here is making the keyboard detachable, instead of swiveling under the monitor. I still count this as a tablet convertible. - http://www.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/surface-with-windows-8-pro/ http://www.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/surface-with-windows-...
- morsch 13y ago
  I think he might have a point that emerging markets are skipping the home PC. I'd be surprised if they're really skipping over to tablets, though, they're skipping to feature and smartphones, which do many of the things ordinary people used to need PCs for. And there are always Internet cafes for the other stuff.
yuhong 13y ago
It is funny they are taking over again after IBM sold the division to Lenovo.
ianhawes 13y ago
I'd bet most laptops/PCs sold in the last 4 years have included at least 2-4 GB of RAM, 60-100 GB of HDD, and a relatively fast processor. Aside from gaming, most internet browsing can be achieved with devices that came out in 2009. If I had to guess, most consumers can get by with their smartphones for 80% of the things they need to do. For the other 20%, they can probably use their aged or shared laptop.
- at-fates-hands 13y ago
  >>>>If I had to guess, most consumers can get by with their smartphones for 80% of the things they need to do. For the other 20%, they can probably use their aged or shared laptop. Except for web development. I can't imagine sitting at a laptop writing code compared to dual 24" monitors. I can agree about your spec on PC's. I'm still running a 1.7 processor with 4GB of RAM. I just upgraded to WIN8 and have been surprised with its performance. With 7, no way I could have PS and Dreamweaver open at the same time. Now, I can run both with no issues, and the only thing I changed was upgrading to WIN8. I'm also about to build a PC from scratch and have found the prices for fairly high end parts is coming down drastically. You can get a totally loaded system (Intel Core i7 processor, 16GB RAM, 2GB Video card) for well under $800.
  - pogden 13y ago
    Yes, but you can plug monitors, a keyboard and mouse into a laptop just as well.
    - sfall 13y ago
      i buy the fancy laptop that has a dock that can support two external displays plus the laptop screen
      - cocoflunchy 13y ago
        A MacBook Pro? edit: http://support.apple.com/kb/HT5219#dispnum http://support.apple.com/kb/HT5219#dispnum
damian2000 13y ago
Is it possible the unpopular Windows 8 could be a small factor in this too? i.e. people waiting until another revision of Windows is released.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- rm999 13y ago
  I think so, I know one person who is literally waiting for a new OS and an older person who went to the store and returned empty-handed complaining he doesn't know how to use computers anymore. I believe he ended up getting an iPad. An analyst at IDC made a similar argument: >"At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Program Vice President, Clients and Displays. "While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24065413 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24065413
- rogerbinns 13y ago
  Windows and even MacOS is a factor IMO. When you have a device with them, you have to play system administrator. You need answers to virus scanners, backups, where your photos are, where you get software from, how you find software you installed, the never ending and frequent updates to everything and the list goes on. With iOS and Android, the average person doesn't have to care about any of that. It is right there or in the cloud. A web browser is sufficient to do a lot of "work": banking, documents, communication, social etc. For advanced uses there is an app. Your photos are right there when you take them with the device. The amount of babysitting and micromanaging is trivial compared to Windows/MacOS. Note that to get iOS or Android, you need to buy a tablet or phone instead of a PC. The problem with Windows 8 is that it is still Windows. It doesn't go anywhere near far enough in the lack of babysitting/micromanaging that characterise Android/iOS and if you get the version that allegedly does (RT) you end up with a tablet anyway. And it broke what people who wanted desktop Windows expected by being different enough from Windows 7 and predecessors appearing gratuitous. Nobody has evolved successfully - both iOS and Android started from scratch. Microsoft and Ubuntu are trying to evolve from desktop, but without much traction so far. (Of course there could be other reasons.)
mehrzad 13y ago
Everyone claims that the PC market is dying. I don't fully understand. I get that you could theoretically use Android, iOS or any other mobile OS full-time, and I would consider using one like that maybe one day. But for now, the world cannot run without PCs. Sure, car sales may decline, but they won't ever cease unless a pure replacement comes along. The whole "PCs are dying" seems like propaganda from people with stakes in companies that focus on mobile.
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- rorrr2 13y ago
  Many people didn't need a PC, but didn't have an alternative (tablet, smartphone). The market is being corrected. PCs are not dying. I can't imagine any my coworkers doing their work on a tablet, except maybe executives who basically do email, spreadsheets and lame powerpoint presentations all day long.
  - dangrossman 13y ago
    > I can't imagine any my coworkers doing their work on a tablet I've been doing web dev on a tablet (Surface Pro) for months now. http://i.imgur.com/a3vIbzH.jpg http://i.imgur.com/a3vIbzH.jpg The only difference between a 2013 tablet and a 2013 laptop is whether the keyboard is permanently attached.
- stephengillie 13y ago
  The gaming PC I built in 2008 still handles brand-new games without any problem or slowdown. Almost everyone is in the same situation. The market isn't dying because people aren't using PCs anymore, it's dying because upgrades have become unnecessary.
- Spooky23 13y ago
  Every decent company on the planet had PCs on a 36-48 month refresh cycle.when was the last like you heard of that happening?
jpdoctor 13y ago
I wonder how long it will be until a similar headline about tablets? Eventually that market will also be saturated.
bane 13y ago
Theoretically, my current desktop is in bad need of a refresh. I think I cobbled it together from slightly better than middle of the road parts in 2007-ish for...oh around $1300. Core2Quad@2.4Ghz, 4GB of RAM, Windows 7 x64, GeForce 9800 GT with ~ 1GB of video memory on it, spinning rust SATA drives. I have yet to find a piece of software, game, whatever that's not reasonably performant on it now 5-6 years later. There's some high end virtualization stuff that just doesn't work on it anymore, and a few recent Demoscene releases struggle a bit, but if I keep with web surfing, document writing, music production, photoshop/gimp, and games, it run all that stuff well enough that I don't feel any pressure to upgrade. It used to be that to run the latest AAA game, Emulation or Demoscene release I'd have to upgrade pretty much my entire machine every 2-3 years. Now I'm seriously considering going another year with this machine or making the plunge and building another. BSNES runs like a dog on it, but I can always ZSNES or SNES9x my way to good-enough-ville. The churn just isn't there. Windows 7 is rock freaking solid, $500-700 desktops at Costco are better than my current desktop in every respect. If you buy a computer today, you can probably happily use it for the next 10 years and never feel the need to upgrade your system for any reason. Software used to drive this stuff, but CPUs aren't getting faster in ways that users care, and cheap GPUs make up for the rest. There's no Doom or Quake or Crysis to force an upgrade (hell, most AAA PC games these days are just ports off of far less powerful consoles). Casual gamers are on WoW capable machines (an almost 10 year old game!) and have no reason to move. The market is simply at saturation not death. It's become like telephony or indoor plumbing. Everybody who's ever going to get a computer (except for kids) has at least one. Hell, my 80 year grandmother finally bought a laptop so my mother can play out of copyright mp3s for her while she cooks.
- batiudrami 13y ago
  I think that with the new consoles we'll see a new push in graphics performance over the next few years which will drive upgrades in PC gamers. The optimisation tricks which can be achieved on console mean that spec-for-spec, a much more powerful PC will be required to run current gen console games in the next few years (just like this generation). The money is going to be in the gamers, and I would expect to see Intel make a push there (AMD is already in the market with their ATI purchase). But I agree, for every other computer user, a PC they bough 5 years ago is most likely still completely fine, unlike those from the 90s and early 2000s, where after 3 years they frequently became near-unusable. A great development as a result of the slowdown of the spec race is the push for smaller/lighter/better battery life which is occurring - new laptops have near hassle-free portability while still being fully functional PCs.
Axsuul 13y ago
PCs may be dying for the average consumer but this certainly doesn't affect the enthusiast and gamer market. I would expect the market for enthusiasts to only grow as more of its users will have to resort to building their own.
jiggy2011 13y ago
I think that a "PC" is a sort of weird limbo between a focused device like a kindle or iphone and a truly general device. The way that I use my PC is mainly as a host for virtual machines, be they JVM or vagrant instances etc. I don't really want to have an "operating system" so much as I want a hypervisor and a windowing environment to tie everything together. It would be great to have a system where I can just slot in arbitrary stuff, for example: If I want to develop mobile applications I'd like to be able to just pop an ARM system into my case via a PCI card or something and just have certain software execute on that. Maybe if I want to edit video, I'd like to be able to rent a bunch of high end CPUs for a weekend and just slide them in there and then take them out and return when I'm done. This is sort of what I hoped the new Mac Pro would be, but they seemed to go in the opposite direction.
- stephengillie 13y ago
  As the PC was the original computing device, it was indeed very general, and many remain this way today. I also host VMs on my main PC, as well as gaming client and server, media center, social terminal (fb, hn, email, text & voice & video chat, etc) & main programming environment. But at this point, I'm about ready to fragment these roles into dedicated hardware -- dedicated server for VMs, RasPi for media center, phone for social terminal, laptop for programming environment & admin/control for all the other devices. The only thing really holding me back is that there really isn't a good replacement dedicated device for PC gaming. Even though some consoles use PC-grade hardware, and keyboards and mice can be made to work on some, it's just not the same.
  - jiggy2011 13y ago
    Kind of, I'd just like to be able to orchestrate it all easily from one terminal and set of monitors so as to have seamless copy/paste etc.

33 points by shawndumas 13y ago

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

arbuge 13y ago
I fully agree. I would never dream of giving up my laptop for my tablet - I find them both indispensable. I don't personally know anyone who feels differently on the subject either. However my 5 year old laptop works pretty much just as well as my 1 year old one for all practical purposes. That's the issue right there...
- iyulaev 13y ago
  For myself (and most engineers I know) the tablet vs laptop issue is a no-brainer. I depend on my laptop for my livelihood. The tablet is more convenient for reading and such but it is a content consumption device. The laptop can be used (slightly more awkwardly) as a consumption device but is also a creation device; I mostly only get paid for the latter.
  - stephengillie 13y ago
    I wish the tablet/laptop convertible had caught on for exactly this reason. They've gotten somewhat better over the past 13 years: Acer Travelmate C100 (2000) -- the first tablet convertible, shipped with "Windows XP Tablet Edition", which was difficult to find otherwise. - http://www.cnet.com/laptops/acer-travelmate-c100-tablet/4505-3121_7-20447681.html http://www.cnet.com/laptops/acer-travelmate-c100-tablet/4505... HP Pavilion tx2500 (2007) -- a recent tablet convertible that could almost be viable today. The pen input was amazing to use in Office and other places. - http://www.tabletpcreview.com/default.asp?newsID=1217 http://www.tabletpcreview.com/default.asp?newsID=1217 Microsoft Surface (2013) -- The big update here is making the keyboard detachable, instead of swiveling under the monitor. I still count this as a tablet convertible. - http://www.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/surface-with-windows-8-pro/ http://www.microsoft.com/surface/en-us/surface-with-windows-...
morsch 13y ago
I think he might have a point that emerging markets are skipping the home PC. I'd be surprised if they're really skipping over to tablets, though, they're skipping to feature and smartphones, which do many of the things ordinary people used to need PCs for. And there are always Internet cafes for the other stuff.

yuhong 13y ago

It is funny they are taking over again after IBM sold the division to Lenovo.

ianhawes 13y ago

I'd bet most laptops/PCs sold in the last 4 years have included at least 2-4 GB of RAM, 60-100 GB of HDD, and a relatively fast processor. Aside from gaming, most internet browsing can be achieved with devices that came out in 2009. If I had to guess, most consumers can get by with their smartphones for 80% of the things they need to do. For the other 20%, they can probably use their aged or shared laptop.

at-fates-hands 13y ago
>>>>If I had to guess, most consumers can get by with their smartphones for 80% of the things they need to do. For the other 20%, they can probably use their aged or shared laptop. Except for web development. I can't imagine sitting at a laptop writing code compared to dual 24" monitors. I can agree about your spec on PC's. I'm still running a 1.7 processor with 4GB of RAM. I just upgraded to WIN8 and have been surprised with its performance. With 7, no way I could have PS and Dreamweaver open at the same time. Now, I can run both with no issues, and the only thing I changed was upgrading to WIN8. I'm also about to build a PC from scratch and have found the prices for fairly high end parts is coming down drastically. You can get a totally loaded system (Intel Core i7 processor, 16GB RAM, 2GB Video card) for well under $800.
- pogden 13y ago
  Yes, but you can plug monitors, a keyboard and mouse into a laptop just as well.
  - sfall 13y ago
    i buy the fancy laptop that has a dock that can support two external displays plus the laptop screen
    - cocoflunchy 13y ago
      A MacBook Pro? edit: http://support.apple.com/kb/HT5219#dispnum http://support.apple.com/kb/HT5219#dispnum

damian2000 13y ago

Is it possible the unpopular Windows 8 could be a small factor in this too? i.e. people waiting until another revision of Windows is released.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
rm999 13y ago
I think so, I know one person who is literally waiting for a new OS and an older person who went to the store and returned empty-handed complaining he doesn't know how to use computers anymore. I believe he ended up getting an iPad. An analyst at IDC made a similar argument: >"At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Program Vice President, Clients and Displays. "While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24065413 http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS24065413
rogerbinns 13y ago
Windows and even MacOS is a factor IMO. When you have a device with them, you have to play system administrator. You need answers to virus scanners, backups, where your photos are, where you get software from, how you find software you installed, the never ending and frequent updates to everything and the list goes on. With iOS and Android, the average person doesn't have to care about any of that. It is right there or in the cloud. A web browser is sufficient to do a lot of "work": banking, documents, communication, social etc. For advanced uses there is an app. Your photos are right there when you take them with the device. The amount of babysitting and micromanaging is trivial compared to Windows/MacOS. Note that to get iOS or Android, you need to buy a tablet or phone instead of a PC. The problem with Windows 8 is that it is still Windows. It doesn't go anywhere near far enough in the lack of babysitting/micromanaging that characterise Android/iOS and if you get the version that allegedly does (RT) you end up with a tablet anyway. And it broke what people who wanted desktop Windows expected by being different enough from Windows 7 and predecessors appearing gratuitous. Nobody has evolved successfully - both iOS and Android started from scratch. Microsoft and Ubuntu are trying to evolve from desktop, but without much traction so far. (Of course there could be other reasons.)

mehrzad 13y ago

Everyone claims that the PC market is dying. I don't fully understand. I get that you could theoretically use Android, iOS or any other mobile OS full-time, and I would consider using one like that maybe one day. But for now, the world cannot run without PCs. Sure, car sales may decline, but they won't ever cease unless a pure replacement comes along. The whole "PCs are dying" seems like propaganda from people with stakes in companies that focus on mobile.

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
rorrr2 13y ago
Many people didn't need a PC, but didn't have an alternative (tablet, smartphone). The market is being corrected. PCs are not dying. I can't imagine any my coworkers doing their work on a tablet, except maybe executives who basically do email, spreadsheets and lame powerpoint presentations all day long.
- dangrossman 13y ago
  > I can't imagine any my coworkers doing their work on a tablet I've been doing web dev on a tablet (Surface Pro) for months now. http://i.imgur.com/a3vIbzH.jpg http://i.imgur.com/a3vIbzH.jpg The only difference between a 2013 tablet and a 2013 laptop is whether the keyboard is permanently attached.
stephengillie 13y ago
The gaming PC I built in 2008 still handles brand-new games without any problem or slowdown. Almost everyone is in the same situation. The market isn't dying because people aren't using PCs anymore, it's dying because upgrades have become unnecessary.
Spooky23 13y ago
Every decent company on the planet had PCs on a 36-48 month refresh cycle.when was the last like you heard of that happening?

jpdoctor 13y ago

I wonder how long it will be until a similar headline about tablets? Eventually that market will also be saturated.

bane 13y ago

Theoretically, my current desktop is in bad need of a refresh. I think I cobbled it together from slightly better than middle of the road parts in 2007-ish for...oh around $1300. Core2Quad@2.4Ghz, 4GB of RAM, Windows 7 x64, GeForce 9800 GT with ~ 1GB of video memory on it, spinning rust SATA drives. I have yet to find a piece of software, game, whatever that's not reasonably performant on it now 5-6 years later. There's some high end virtualization stuff that just doesn't work on it anymore, and a few recent Demoscene releases struggle a bit, but if I keep with web surfing, document writing, music production, photoshop/gimp, and games, it run all that stuff well enough that I don't feel any pressure to upgrade. It used to be that to run the latest AAA game, Emulation or Demoscene release I'd have to upgrade pretty much my entire machine every 2-3 years. Now I'm seriously considering going another year with this machine or making the plunge and building another. BSNES runs like a dog on it, but I can always ZSNES or SNES9x my way to good-enough-ville. The churn just isn't there. Windows 7 is rock freaking solid, $500-700 desktops at Costco are better than my current desktop in every respect. If you buy a computer today, you can probably happily use it for the next 10 years and never feel the need to upgrade your system for any reason. Software used to drive this stuff, but CPUs aren't getting faster in ways that users care, and cheap GPUs make up for the rest. There's no Doom or Quake or Crysis to force an upgrade (hell, most AAA PC games these days are just ports off of far less powerful consoles). Casual gamers are on WoW capable machines (an almost 10 year old game!) and have no reason to move. The market is simply at saturation not death. It's become like telephony or indoor plumbing. Everybody who's ever going to get a computer (except for kids) has at least one. Hell, my 80 year grandmother finally bought a laptop so my mother can play out of copyright mp3s for her while she cooks.

batiudrami 13y ago
I think that with the new consoles we'll see a new push in graphics performance over the next few years which will drive upgrades in PC gamers. The optimisation tricks which can be achieved on console mean that spec-for-spec, a much more powerful PC will be required to run current gen console games in the next few years (just like this generation). The money is going to be in the gamers, and I would expect to see Intel make a push there (AMD is already in the market with their ATI purchase). But I agree, for every other computer user, a PC they bough 5 years ago is most likely still completely fine, unlike those from the 90s and early 2000s, where after 3 years they frequently became near-unusable. A great development as a result of the slowdown of the spec race is the push for smaller/lighter/better battery life which is occurring - new laptops have near hassle-free portability while still being fully functional PCs.

Axsuul 13y ago

PCs may be dying for the average consumer but this certainly doesn't affect the enthusiast and gamer market. I would expect the market for enthusiasts to only grow as more of its users will have to resort to building their own.

jiggy2011 13y ago

I think that a "PC" is a sort of weird limbo between a focused device like a kindle or iphone and a truly general device. The way that I use my PC is mainly as a host for virtual machines, be they JVM or vagrant instances etc. I don't really want to have an "operating system" so much as I want a hypervisor and a windowing environment to tie everything together. It would be great to have a system where I can just slot in arbitrary stuff, for example: If I want to develop mobile applications I'd like to be able to just pop an ARM system into my case via a PCI card or something and just have certain software execute on that. Maybe if I want to edit video, I'd like to be able to rent a bunch of high end CPUs for a weekend and just slide them in there and then take them out and return when I'm done. This is sort of what I hoped the new Mac Pro would be, but they seemed to go in the opposite direction.

stephengillie 13y ago
As the PC was the original computing device, it was indeed very general, and many remain this way today. I also host VMs on my main PC, as well as gaming client and server, media center, social terminal (fb, hn, email, text & voice & video chat, etc) & main programming environment. But at this point, I'm about ready to fragment these roles into dedicated hardware -- dedicated server for VMs, RasPi for media center, phone for social terminal, laptop for programming environment & admin/control for all the other devices. The only thing really holding me back is that there really isn't a good replacement dedicated device for PC gaming. Even though some consoles use PC-grade hardware, and keyboards and mice can be made to work on some, it's just not the same.
- jiggy2011 13y ago
  Kind of, I'd just like to be able to orchestrate it all easily from one terminal and set of monitors so as to have seamless copy/paste etc.