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In December 2002, a North Korean ship was boarded by Spanish special forces in coordination with the US off the Horn of Africa.[1] They believed it was carrying
by rz2k 13y ago
In December 2002, a North Korean ship was boarded by Spanish special forces in coordination with the US off the Horn of Africa.[1] They believed it was carrying missiles or other arms. It was a shipment of Scud missiles on its way to Yemen, and they eventually let them pass.[2]
It is well within the capability of the US Navy to blockade or stop a Venezuelan warship, and it would probably be a bad strategy to show even token resistance when days away from anyone else being able to see what is happening.
The narrative could be something along the lines of —they were given an easy way to give him up, but they were crazy and shot at us first! I have no idea what warning shots are like from missile frigates and whether they are easy to interpret.
It might be easier to hope that a 11 or 12 hour flight avoiding unwelcoming airspaces would simply go mostly unnoticed. Foreign Policy also played with the idea a few days ago.[3]
My guess is that as long as he remains safe for a few years, popular opinion will eventually shift to his favor and he'll be pardoned, and eventually treated more like Ellsberg than Vanunu. However, since it is in the long term interests of Venezuela to repair relations with the US, it will require luck for Snowden to become popular enough in the US for a pardon before Venezuela decides that it has 'thought deeper' about what he did, and wants to make a friendly gesture toward its American partners.
[1] http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/11/us.missile.ship/ http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/11/us.mis...
[2] http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/11/us.missile.ship/ http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/11/us.mis...
[3] http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/06/moscow_to_caracas_the_scenic_route http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/06/moscow_to_car...