One extreme fluctuation in property values doesn't disprove the general historical observation that property tax revenue is more stable than sales or income tax

One extreme fluctuation in property values doesn't disprove the general historical observation that property tax revenue is more stable than sales or income tax revenue. There are factors that can explain this, such as the fact that sales tax is essentially assessed in real time, income tax every year, and property tax less frequently. (My understanding is that it was every few years pre-Prop 13, and now only when a home is built, sold, or substantially rebuilt.) This lag in assessment will tend to smooth out revenues. Also due to the way assessment is triggered, a 50% drop in home prices doesn't imply a 50% drop in total property tax revenue -- only for homes that are sold. [EDIT: But apparently one can appeal to have property reassessed without selling, which presumably many people will do with prices dropping significantly.] Furthermore, if sales forced by foreclosure are bias toward the lower price range -- as is the case -- that will further limit the effect on total property tax revenue. EDIT: See also http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/25/MNV7155VSC.DTL http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/01/25/... -- a little short on hard data, but suggesting that the variation in property tax revenue is not going to be anywhere close to the 40-50% drop in sales and income tax reported in the OP.