The stakes in your decision? If doing a full rational analysis has a cost in time and effort, but leads to a more accurate result on average, there's a level of

The stakes in your decision? If doing a full rational analysis has a cost in time and effort, but leads to a more accurate result on average, there's a level of risk/reward at which it's worth applying and one where it's not. Of course, identifying the crossover point would seem to require a second-order heuristic...