Keep in mind that unemployment figures are not a simple polynomial. Specifically, an _improvement_ in the second derivative (not even necessarily positive) does

Keep in mind that unemployment figures are not a simple polynomial. Specifically, an _improvement_ in the second derivative (not even necessarily positive) doesn't directly imply that we're going to improve. The article mentions this too: >---------------------------------------------------- The $787 billion question, of course, is whether a decrease in the rate of job losses indeed portends a recovery, or whether such data is subject to false starts. >---------------------------------------------------- I'm all for optimism, but there's enough short-term fluctuation in economic statistics that this is like getting the faintest whiff of baked goods and wondering whether we're all getting donuts next week.